ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[adam0983]

The Euro run from earlier this afternoon was further west than the previous run. The Euro was always the eastern most model with regards to Hurricane Matthew so we will see if it decides to go more west. My guess is it will go more west and follow the gfs because the storm has slowed down and the trough is not as strong as originally thought.

[NDG]

I was just looking at the Model's position error, one of the ones that have been the worst so far on Matthew's forecast track is the HWRF, it has been right biased all along, with 72 forecast track by as much as 150 miles and its 5 day track as much as off as 300+ miles.

And which models have performed the best so far?

On intensity it has done OK but as I mentioned it has been right biased all along especially between day 3-5, I remember that it was also right biased with Hermine as well.

[northjaxpro]

NDG, how about your thoughts about the turn of events tonight my friend?

[Blinhart]

I am posting a hypothetical question for the Pro-mets, if for some unexplained reason Matthew does decide to continue on a Westerly direction and decides to shoot up between Cuba and the YP, entering the GoM, do you guys think that this system might actually become the first unofficial Cat 6 in recorded history reaching an intensity of over 210 MPH?

[fci]

There is only one model showing this system going over the tip of Nicaragua and Honduras then into Belize then going over the Yucatan, and that is the CLP5, I know that is one of the worse models to look at, but you never know what might happen.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_14.gif

I believe that CLP5 is an extrapolation of a storm continuing on its current course and that it is not a model at all.

[mcheer23]

I am posting a hypothetical question for the Pro-mets, if for some unexplained reason Matthew does decide to continue on a Westerly direction and decides to shoot up between Cuba and the YP, entering the GoM, do you guys think that this system might actually become the first unofficial Cat 6 in recorded history reaching an intensity of over 210 MPH?

It wont do that and no

[1900hurricane]

I am posting a hypothetical question for the Pro-mets, if for some unexplained reason Matthew does decide to continue on a Westerly direction and decides to shoot up between Cuba and the YP, entering the GoM, do you guys think that this system might actually become the first unofficial Cat 6 in recorded history reaching an intensity of over 210 MPH?

Patricia was stronger than that last year.

[NDG]

NDG, how about your thoughts about the turn of events tonight my friend?

I don't like the trends of the GFS that's for sure, hopefully it will start going back east again but there is so much uncertainty past a 3-5 day range, so many variables this time of the year, any little extra ridging could put it much closer to FL while a stronger trough remaining behind could accelerated out to sea, each day will be interesting lol.

[RL3AO]

There is only one model showing this system going over the tip of Nicaragua and Honduras then into Belize then going over the Yucatan, and that is the CLP5, I know that is one of the worse models to look at, but you never know what might happen.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_14.gif

I believe that CLP5 is an extrapolation of a storm continuing on its current course and that it is not a model at all.

That's XTRP. CLP5 is based on climatology and is the model that all others are compared to to determine if they have any skill.

[fci]

There is only one model showing this system going over the tip of Nicaragua and Honduras then into Belize then going over the Yucatan, and that is the CLP5, I know that is one of the worse models to look at, but you never know what might happen.

http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... orm_14.gif

I believe that CLP5 is an extrapolation of a storm continuing on its current course and that it is not a model at all.

That's XTRP. CLP5 is based on climatology and is the model that all others are compared to to determine if they have any skill.

Thanks, but can you explain that a bit more.
I read about it on line but am still confused.
Perhaps in more "layman" terms?
(off-line would be OK too)

[northjaxpro]

Yeah NDG it is an extremely complex situation that is fore sure. These days ahead coming we will talk about for a long time to come about Matthew.

We will see what rhe latest run from EURO will give us very shortly.

[USTropics]

I plotted the 00z UKMET run, below this image is the text output as well:

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.10.2016
HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 13.2N 72.0W
ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 01.10.2016 13.2N 72.0W MODERATE

12UTC 01.10.2016 12.5N 73.1W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 02.10.2016 13.0N 73.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 02.10.2016 13.7N 74.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 03.10.2016 14.8N 75.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 03.10.2016 16.3N 76.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 04.10.2016 18.1N 75.4W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 04.10.2016 20.2N 75.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 05.10.2016 21.9N 74.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 05.10.2016 23.4N 74.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 06.10.2016 24.6N 75.2W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 06.10.2016 26.2N 76.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 07.10.2016 28.2N 77.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

[RL3AO]

I believe that CLP5 is an extrapolation of a storm continuing on its current course and that it is not a model at all.

That's XTRP. CLP5 is based on climatology and is the model that all others are compared to to determine if they have any skill.

Thanks, but can you explain that a bit more.
I read about it on line but am still confused.
Perhaps in more "layman" terms?

From my understanding clp5 combines climatology (what storms in similar position have done in past) with persistence (what has the storm done and assume it doesn't change). It is defined as having zero skill and therfore every other model is compared to it to determine its skill level.

[meriland23]

00z initiated

[PTrackerLA]

Euro initializes at 984mb, just goes to show how tight and compact the core is right now. Will be a different story after Cuba though.

[meriland23]

EURO at 24hrs is 14N and 74W

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like a couple of the GFS ensembles take it into S. Florida, but most are east of the operational.

[ConvergenceZone]

The question is, will the EURO trend closer to the coast? I think we all know it will still take it out to Sea, but a further trend Westward may be a foreboding sign.

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro hr 24

[Kingarabian]

00z Euro is slower than the 12z run more E than the previous 00z run.