ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[meriland23]

So far today.

GFS = doesn't develop future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge buIlds further west.

Euro = develops future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge errodes.

And hasn't NHC conformed Nicole is 'developing'?

[sma10]

GFS doesn't develope that System to the east like the euro. You can see a reflection of this low right from the beginning of the Euro run that erodes the ridge and allows Matt to go more east in the beginning. I'm not buying it at all,

We will know soon enough because East/West disparity between the two models show up fairly quickly. I would say by tomorrow night we'll pretty much know which solution is most likely.

I tend to think Euro for a couple reasons: 1) the feature already exists and 2) other models are also developing it too.

[Blinhart]

So far today.

GFS = doesn't develop future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge buIlds further west.

Euro = develops future Nicole (Pouch 40L), ridge errodes.

And hasn't NHC conformed Nicole is 'developing'?

They have given it a chance of developing, not set in stone.

[meriland23]

NHC has made it clear that any formation of it would be slow due to the strong upper level winds

[bamajammer4eva]

Canadian shows Nicole and turns this OTS UKMET turns NNE around Jamaica and misses them to the East and clips the E Easternmost tip of tip of Cuba. It eventually turn NNW again later but does it have a Nicole in it as well?

[AutoPenalti]

Just look at the difference in models.. I am floored..

00z EURO for 00z oct 8



00z GFS for 00z oct 8th

Notice that low isn't there in the GFS.

[sma10]

Yes but it's tricky. It doesn't even need to fully develop to still cause mischief to the ridge.

[Kingarabian]

Both the GFS and the Euro have been garbage this year. It's a crapshoot between these models.

[hurricaneCW]

First test will be whether or not it follows gfs or Euro path near Jamaica/Haiti. Euro has kept him further east for a few runs now.

Maybe the Euro is right but way too early to know for sure.

[SouthFloridawx]

Chances aren't great for formation of that system.

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[meriland23]

Chances aren't great for formation of that system.

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True, but like the above poster said, it doesn't need to to divert Matt like Euro is showing..

[AutoPenalti]

Chances aren't great for formation of that system.

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Heavily sheared at that

[wxmann_91]

Disclaimer: ultimately, this may not matter, and I do think the Euro solution has about as equal a chance as the GFS solution to verify,.

But FWIW... the initialization of the 0Z Euro does seem a little bit... off.

850mb winds:



Within 24 hr it does something funky with the core, causing it to collapse (?), as evidence in the relaxation of the 500mb height fields:

[TimeZone]

Chances aren't great for formation of that system.

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Even if it doesn't develop, it could still create issues with the ridge, couldn't it?

[AtlanticWind]

Euro about 500 mile difference at day 9 on this run compared to last.Hard to trust this in the long range
Also big difference in shorter range with gfs,euro misses Jamaica pretty easily.

[meriland23]

thing is, that disturbance near it is entirely new, and since it's developed, all the models have picked it up and done the same thing (OTS) so I suppose, it's only a matter of the next run that the GFS will do the same..IMO

[AtlanticWind]

Will have to turn northward pretty soon for euro to verify,can't follow NHC short term track toward Jamaica.

[meriland23]

check out the satellite view, it's a pretty solid W movement, maybe even WSW..

[Blinhart]

It will have to start showing a Northerly motion soon for any of these models to come to fruition, is what I'm thinking. I just don't see it happening. I think this system will continue going further West. We all know Cat 5 hurricanes can have their own atmospheric controls that will do what it wants when it wants. These last couple seasons have shown to not expect the models to be spot on at all and only trust the next 12 to 24 hours for true synopsis.

[AutoPenalti]

thing is, that disturbance near it is entirely new, and since it's developed, all the models have picked it up and done the same thing (OTS) so I suppose, it's only a matter of the next run that the GFS will do the same..IMO

If that were the case then by all means that would be amazing.