ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stormreader]

I can tell you which one has been more consistent run to run and that's the GFS. It's had minor shifts left and right but no major flip flopping like the Euro has been doing. It seems to spit out a different 5 to 10 day track every run.

Agreed, GFS has been more in line with the west tandems whereas the Euro seems to switch between east and west.

True, but it isn't as if the Euro is creating a phantom low to its East - it actually exists and is spinning right now. I can't actually believe that the end game decider in this whole drama might actually be a krappy, disorganized tropical wave.

I can't believe it either, matter of fact, I don't!

[sma10]

So there's a simple benchmark: the Western tip of Haiti is at 74.5W. The gfs says that by 8pm tomorrow, Matthew will already be west of that line; the Euro says no, and instead is short of that point and already gaining noticeable latitude.

We should have a good idea in fairly short order which solution is more likely.

[stormreader]

Meanwhile Mathew continues on its merry way, now due west, past model forecast points in which it was scheduled to make a hard right turn and move due N in the Caribbean. Now the right turn, due N forecast movement was a short term model solution, and even this looks to be in serious trouble by tomorrow morning if Mathew continues west. If models couldn't get the short term right with Mathew, not sure why I should trust them with the long!

[stormreader]

So there's a simple benchmark: the Western tip of Haiti is at 74.0W. The gfs says that by 8pm tomorrow, Matthew will already be west of that line; the Euro says no, and instead is short of that point and already gaining noticeable latitude.

We should have a good idea in fairly short order which solution is more likely.

True! What we really should be interested in is if Mathew continues with at least some west component, say moves NNW on a trek out of the Caribbean. That will take the storm quite a bit further west than either model is showing and put the Fl Penninsula in danger.

[Aric Dunn]

except westward shifts

[Blinhart]

So there's a simple benchmark: the Western tip of Haiti is at 74.0W. The gfs says that by 8pm tomorrow, Matthew will already be west of that line; the Euro says no, and instead is short of that point and already gaining noticeable latitude.

We should have a good idea in fairly short order which solution is more likely.

True! What we really should be interested in is if Mathew continues with at least some west component, say moves NNW on a trek out of the Caribbean. That will take the storm quite a bit further west than either model is showing and put the Fl Penninsula in danger.

Not only the Peninsula, the Panhandle could be in play also.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

Very reliable model most of the time.

[stormreader]

So there's a simple benchmark: the Western tip of Haiti is at 74.0W. The gfs says that by 8pm tomorrow, Matthew will already be west of that line; the Euro says no, and instead is short of that point and already gaining noticeable latitude.

We should have a good idea in fairly short order which solution is more likely.

True! What we really should be interested in is if Mathew continues with at least some west component, say moves NNW on a trek out of the Caribbean. That will take the storm quite a bit further west than either model is showing and put the Fl Penninsula in danger.

Not only the Peninsula, the Panhandle could be in play also.

I don't rule that out. Been saying for several days that most likely Mathew crosses Cuba and ends up near Key West. Very slow movement at that time. Finally N up the west coast of Fl. But I have given a reasonable percentage (40%) that Mathew drifts out a little further W into the GOM with the weak steering currents. In that case you might then get N followed by NNE toward Tampa. But I wouldn't rule out a panhandle strike. But still think most likely N right up the west coast of Fl.

[jlauderdal]

True! What we really should be interested in is if Mathew continues with at least some west component, say moves NNW on a trek out of the Caribbean. That will take the storm quite a bit further west than either model is showing and put the Fl Penninsula in danger.

Not only the Peninsula, the Panhandle could be in play also.

I don't rule that out. Been saying for several days that most likely Mathew crosses Cuba and ends up near Key West. Very slow movement at that time. Finally N up the west coast of Fl. But I have given a reasonable percentage (40%) that Mathew drifts out a little further W into the GOM with the weak steering currents. In that case you might then get N followed by NNE toward Tampa. But I wouldn't rule out a panhandle strike. But still think most likely N right up the west coast of Fl.

if you verify then you get a job at nhc,no interview required

[brunota2003]

I'm not seeing anythIng on the loop above suggesting a northward turn is coming...yet, anyways. The showers and storms in the central and western Caribbean all appear to be moving WSW or W currently.

[bamajammer4eva]

06Z spaghetti model runs are out and they have trended Eastward in the short term sparing Jamaica from the Eastern side of the storm. We shall see if this East shift continues. Long term is of course uncertain. latest 12, 18, 00, 06 loop below

[Happy Pelican]

Hello super storm sandy

I'd love the finish rebuilding from the first Sandy

[CDO62]

GFS 06z is trending a little East this run sparing a direct hit on Jamaica.

[Nimbus]

Very reliable model most of the time.

This time it appears to be modeling an outlier stall scenario whereby the ridging over western Mexico has a chance to bridge over with the subtropical ridging being pumped up by Mattthew.

The model consensus actually seems pretty tight for a northerly track over eastern Cuba.
The Kentucky ULL is still spinning away with a nice kink in the jet stream providing steering.
We don't want to see Matt linger near the turning point without moving north though/
The window for starting a movement northmay only be a day before the upper air pattern starts to change the models.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z approach on FL coast nearly identical going directly over Long Island Bahama.

[otowntiger]

06Z spaghetti model runs are out and they have trended Eastward in the short term sparing Jamaica from the Eastern side of the storm. We shall see if this East shift continues. Long term is of course uncertain. latest 12, 18, 00, 06 loop below

Very tight agreement on these and only very slight shifts. Pretty sure the windshield' wipering' is done and the consensus track here will verify. CONUS hit looking much less like in my opinion.

[FLpanhandle91]

Very similar track to 00z once the turn is made no. Although this run does show a ridge to its southeast but also a pretty substantial low pressure to its northeast

[xironman]

The GFS has been pretty consistent with a NE coast landfall, but the Euro usually wins this game

[FLpanhandle91]

GFS has this thing as a monster cat 5 off of the South Carolina coast with a huge hit on the Cape Cod area.

[jhpigott]

Very similar track to 00z once the turn is made no. Although this run does show a ridge to its southeast but also a pretty substantial low pressure to its northeast

06z gfs another close approach (50-75 miles) to West Palm Beach up toward Cape Canaveral.