ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4021 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:42 am

I think the 06z GFS just gave a nod to the Euro by acknowledging the low to the Northeast. With that said the difference in the long range was minimal. We'll have to wait till later today to see if this becomes a new trend. The GFS has been all about subtle shifts here and there whereas the Euro gets an idea and runs with it from run to run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4022 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 5:48 am

I plotted the 20 GFS, 20 Canadian, & the 51 EC ensembles (50 + control) along with all other dynamic models (minus NVGEM & NAM, as they suck too bad). Quite a consensus for staying off the East Coast. It's the GFS that takes the center closest to the Carolinas each run. The two tracks into SC are the last 2 runs of the UKMET. I still think TS winds will likely miss Florida, but may reach the Carolinas, particularly since I expect Matthew's wind field to increase in size post-Cuba interaction. Matthew's south of west motion has stopped and I think it's starting to make the turn (or will be soon). Don't look for a right-angle turn. it'll start out gradually, moving a bit north of west.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4023 Postby jlauderdal » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:06 am

wxman57 wrote:I plotted the 20 GFS, 20 Canadian, & the 51 EC ensembles (50 + control) along with all other dynamic models (minus NVGEM & NAM, as they suck too bad). Quite a consensus for staying off the East Coast. It's the GFS that takes the center closest to the Carolinas each run. The two tracks into SC are the last 2 runs of the UKMET. I still think TS winds will likely miss Florida, but may reach the Carolinas, particularly since I expect Matthew's wind field to increase in size post-Cuba interaction. Matthew's south of west motion has stopped and I think it's starting to make the turn (or will be soon). Don't look for a right-angle turn. it'll start out gradually, moving a bit north of west.

http://i66.tinypic.com/1zghog.jpg
i was surprised nhc mentioned navgem in their disco
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4024 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:38 am

GFDL just shifted to east of 76W
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4025 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:41 am

Alyono wrote:GFDL just shifted to east of 76W


GFDL hasn't impressed me with its consistency over the past... 10 years or so. Perhaps my flight to Orlando won't be a recon flight into Matthew next Monday...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4026 Postby BobHarlem » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:54 am

Still awaiting the turn, but I suspect it'll be a lot quieter here tomorrow than today, that consensus is to great to ignore. Euro does have it in for Bermuda, though with that run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4027 Postby otowntiger » Sat Oct 01, 2016 6:55 am

wxman57 wrote:
Alyono wrote:GFDL just shifted to east of 76W


GFDL hasn't impressed me with its consistency over the past... 10 years or so. Perhaps my flight to Orlando won't be a recon flight into Matthew next Monday...

Always appreciate your professional and rational insight here Wxmsn57. Do you think the models will pretty much hold steady at this point? Is there good reason to believe the major shifts are done in the track? It's still early I know but it seems like these models have been so remarkably consistent in the past week that they are aren't going to shift wildly now. What do you think? Of course I hope your trip here is without any weather related drama! 8-) :wink:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4028 Postby adam0983 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:20 am

I'm not buying the Euro solution. The Euro model had underperformed all season and can't be trusted. The Gfs solution is most likely.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4029 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:22 am

https://imgur.com/Dmm6sxk

GFS closest approach to FL 00Z vs 06Z at 132hrs.

Bout 25 miles difference and slightly weaker on 06Z
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4030 Postby drezee » Sat Oct 01, 2016 7:54 am

There are lines drawn not just between models...but within models runs. To hit the euro point, Matthew would have to turn due N in 15 hrs from now at current speed. It will likely slow down first though. The upstream has clear a path for a track closer to the US on all models. The Euro is now banking on a backdoor exit. Potent system forming and killing the ridge, 1010 mbs in that environment is enough to disrupt. That little system NE of Matthew is the key. Two scenarios though: that upper low over that system will likely tighten a bit due to the outflow...will it keep it weak or not. I would like GlobalHawk data on it...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4031 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:02 am

adam0983 wrote:I'm not buying the Euro solution. The Euro model had underperformed all season and can't be trusted. The Gfs solution is most likely.


Note that the Euro has significantly out-performed the GFS so far with Matthew. The GFS had the center tracking about 120 miles farther north across the Caribbean and reaching eastern Cuba 1-2 days too early. The Euro correctly predicted the farther south track as well as the south of west motion past Venezuela. That doesn't mean it's correct now, of course.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4032 Postby Emmett_Brown » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:05 am

wxman57 wrote:
adam0983 wrote:I'm not buying the Euro solution. The Euro model had underperformed all season and can't be trusted. The Gfs solution is most likely.


Note that the Euro has significantly out-performed the GFS so far with Matthew. The GFS had the center tracking about 120 miles farther north across the Caribbean and reaching eastern Cuba 1-2 days too early. The Euro correctly predicted the farther south track as well as the south of west motion past Venezuela. That doesn't mean it's correct now, of course.


I think it is the Euro's wild drunken swings in the long range forecast that has people on edge about it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4033 Postby wxman57 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:12 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
adam0983 wrote:I'm not buying the Euro solution. The Euro model had underperformed all season and can't be trusted. The Gfs solution is most likely.


Note that the Euro has significantly out-performed the GFS so far with Matthew. The GFS had the center tracking about 120 miles farther north across the Caribbean and reaching eastern Cuba 1-2 days too early. The Euro correctly predicted the farther south track as well as the south of west motion past Venezuela. That doesn't mean it's correct now, of course.


I think it is the Euro's wild drunken swings in the long range forecast that has people on edge about it.


Yes, the GFS has been more consistently wrong... ;-)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4034 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:21 am

The 00Z NASA model keeps it just offshore FL for now...

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4035 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:23 am

It also stalls it just N of the Bahamas for another 5 days....

Here is the 240hr mark...

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4036 Postby otterlyspicey » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:37 am

I've been saying this all along and I will continue to say it... this storm wants to go OTS and most likely will, after causing havoc in the Caribbean. I really think this is a close call but not close enough to the coast to cause any major concerns for the US. Of course I can be completely wrong, but I have seen nothing in the last week to make me think Matthew landfalls in the US... although last night I almost started to think it was possible. But today I believe we see an east trend in the models... and by tomorrow evening we will have a much clearer easterly consensus. (Now watch all the models landfall Florida next run lol)
Last edited by otterlyspicey on Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4037 Postby SFLcane » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:45 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4038 Postby otowntiger » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:45 am

chris_fit wrote:The 00Z NASA model keeps it just offshore FL for now...

https://s11.postimg.org/ygwzvrh8z/fp_6p ... ropatl.png

That's a shift east for that model even.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4039 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:49 am

otowntiger wrote:
chris_fit wrote:The 00Z NASA model keeps it just offshore FL for now...

[imghttps://s11.postimg.org/ygwzvrh8z/fp_6precs_sfc_114_tropatl.png[/img]

That's a shift east for that model even.


Yes, East shift in the mid-long term (120 hours) - But when you look at the 240 hour mark, it's a shift WAY West/South. Here is yesterday 00z Run to compare.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4040 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sat Oct 01, 2016 8:54 am

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