ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[chris_fit]

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/omaod7dtd/2016_10_01_23_30_30_500mb_Hgt_MSLP_Tropical_00z.png[/img

Which way is it moving?

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

12z Bams back in FL

[northjaxpro]

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/omaod7dtd/2016_10_01_23_30_30_500mb_Hgt_MSLP_Tropical_00z.png[/img

Which way is it moving?

Slowly west at 7 mph per last NHC advisory.

[pgoss11]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

12z Bams back in FL

Seems like the general consensus of those runs are up 75W..well offshore.

[NDG]

I'm glad to see the 12z models start trending towards the Euro, but it is still way too early to call the all clear for FL, IMO.

[AdamFirst]

Most of the models also have a present NW movement...which hasn't started yet...

[drezee]

Turn watch starts in 8 hours. Euro turns at 73.8W and is due n at 74.5W. GFS turns at 74 as well but is more gradual

[adam0983]

The gfs at 11 should be interesting could come back west.

[tolakram]

previous runs

[stormreader]

Has the west motion pretty much stopped? Just checking latest loop. Don't see a whole lot of movement.

[wxman57]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

12z Bams back in FL

You can't use the BAMs out of the deep (DEEP) tropics. They're basic trajectory models that work OK for systems tracking at low latitudes from Africa to the Caribbean. Ignore them completely now.

[DESTRUCTION5]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_tracks_latest.png

12z Bams back in FL

You can't use the BAMs out of the deep (DEEP) tropics. They're basic trajectory models that work OK for systems tracking at low latitudes from Africa to the Caribbean. Ignore them completely now.

Completely with you there..just looking at the NW bump that generally agrees with the GFS..like there will be some sort of NW motion beyond cuba.

[NDG]

Question, has the Euro[ean been using NOAA's atmosphere sampling to the north of Matthew, is it just the GFS that has been using it?

[chris_fit]

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/omaod7dtd/2016_10_01_23_30_30_500mb_Hgt_MSLP_Tropical_00z.png[/img

Which way is it moving?

Slowly west at 7 mph per last NHC advisory.

I meant in the model run :-D

[Sanibel]

GFDL: (Google: GFDL Hurricane Model)

[SouthFLTropics]

We're about to find out if the GFS is going to hold serve or cave more to the Euro. Based on previous experience I'm having a hard time betting against the Euro, however it has been very wishy washy with Matthew.

[SunnyThoughts]

12z GFS initialized http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=228

[otowntiger]

Off topic: Wow! Things got really quiet around here. Amazing what a strong out to sea model con census and a weakening storm will do to settle things down, lol.. Back to the storm: I wouldn't be surprised to see it weaken as quickly as it strengthened. The appearance is night and day from last night- no pun intended. Must be the dry air Levi was talking about to its NW. Also it could be finally relenting to the shear in its vicinity now. Aloyno was saying it would possibly go down to cat two and then RI back to cat 5 before hitting Cuba/Haiti. That would be very bad indeed.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS already very slightly east of 06Z ar 24 hours and noticeably east of the 00Z run by hour 30

[crimi481]

Here in S.W. Florida, todays forecast brings in land storms to west coast. Past several days storms stayed inland. The ridge seems to be strengthening?

Not a pro