ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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emeraldislenc
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4121 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:23 am

How close to cape lookout does it come?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4122 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:23 am

Looks like landfall at Cape Lookout at hr 174
Last edited by pgoss11 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:23 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4123 Postby drezee » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:23 am

trough goes negative on this run...landfall imminent
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4124 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:24 am

That is not what I wanted to hear. Can you show any graphics?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4125 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:25 am

emeraldislenc wrote:How close to cape lookout does it come?

Is Landfall close enough? :eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4126 Postby toad strangler » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:25 am

That's a classic spot for landfall in NC.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4127 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:26 am

It is so confusing one minute someone says trending east and then the next trending east.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4128 Postby SeGaBob » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:26 am

Any further west and GA could be in play. Does anyone see that as a possibility?

And yes I know E of Bermuda isn't happening. :)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4129 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:26 am

I think NOAA has to sample the atmosphere north of P.R. to see if indeed a weakness in the ridge is developing between P.R & Bermuda, thus why the Euro and now the GFS show a more easterly trend in the short term, it could make a big difference in the track over Cuba & the Bahamas.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4130 Postby HurrMark » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:26 am

OBX on the nose at 174
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4131 Postby emeraldislenc » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:26 am

Yes Landfall is close enough.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4132 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:28 am

emeraldislenc wrote:It is so confusing one minute someone says trending east and then the next trending east.


The frame-by-frame forecasting is a little bit silly, because even the slightest change over the next six hours could spell the difference between out to sea and a hurricane landfall into NC/VA.

With that said, the GFS is being significantly more consistent in locking in a pattern beyond Cuba than the ECMWF is. The ECMWF has varied hundreds of miles between runs the last 24 hours.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4133 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:29 am

STOP IT UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 73.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2016 0 12.6N 73.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.10.2016 12 12.6N 73.6W 990 56
1200UTC 02.10.2016 24 13.2N 74.3W 990 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 36 14.6N 75.0W 988 51
1200UTC 03.10.2016 48 16.1N 75.3W 981 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 60 17.7N 74.6W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 72 19.7N 74.4W 975 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 84 21.1N 74.3W 976 61
1200UTC 05.10.2016 96 21.9N 74.7W 977 65
0000UTC 06.10.2016 108 22.6N 75.3W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 120 23.4N 76.4W 969 68
0000UTC 07.10.2016 132 24.4N 77.6W 965 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 144 25.8N 78.8W 954 72
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4134 Postby HurrMark » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:30 am

Poised for another NE landfall
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4135 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:31 am

I've mentioned if before but western Atlantic ridging has constantly been underestimated, we had record SSTs off the east coast and a drought situation due to stronger than normal ridging. Hazel was also a strong analog for Matthew.

Florida may escape him but could be dicey for Carolinas.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4136 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:31 am

NDG wrote:I think NOAA has to sample the atmosphere north of P.R. to see if indeed a weakness in the ridge is developing between P.R & Bermuda, thus why the Euro and now the GFS show a more easterly trend in the short term, it could make a big difference in the track over Cuba & the Bahamas.

What's your take NDG?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4137 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:31 am

emeraldislenc wrote:It is so confusing one minute someone says trending east and then the next trending east.

Trended a bit E near Florida but similar to 06z near mid Atlantic...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4138 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:32 am

2nd landfall Narragansett Bay, RI at hr 192.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4139 Postby WeatherEmperor » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:32 am

Alyono wrote:STOP IT UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 73.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2016 0 12.6N 73.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.10.2016 12 12.6N 73.6W 990 56
1200UTC 02.10.2016 24 13.2N 74.3W 990 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 36 14.6N 75.0W 988 51
1200UTC 03.10.2016 48 16.1N 75.3W 981 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 60 17.7N 74.6W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 72 19.7N 74.4W 975 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 84 21.1N 74.3W 976 61
1200UTC 05.10.2016 96 21.9N 74.7W 977 65
0000UTC 06.10.2016 108 22.6N 75.3W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 120 23.4N 76.4W 969 68
0000UTC 07.10.2016 132 24.4N 77.6W 965 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 144 25.8N 78.8W 954 72


I am literally about to start smashing my head against the wall!! :grr:

Juuust when I was starting to feel good about the models shiting away from South Florida...I see the UKMET decides to turn it WNW towards FL again. Ugh!
Last edited by WeatherEmperor on Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4140 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sat Oct 01, 2016 11:32 am

Alyono wrote:STOP IT UKMET


Sizeable SW shift in the 4-5 day time frame.... Slower, heading NW towards Central Florida.
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