ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

STOP IT UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 73.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2016 0 12.6N 73.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.10.2016 12 12.6N 73.6W 990 56
1200UTC 02.10.2016 24 13.2N 74.3W 990 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 36 14.6N 75.0W 988 51
1200UTC 03.10.2016 48 16.1N 75.3W 981 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 60 17.7N 74.6W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 72 19.7N 74.4W 975 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 84 21.1N 74.3W 976 61
1200UTC 05.10.2016 96 21.9N 74.7W 977 65
0000UTC 06.10.2016 108 22.6N 75.3W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 120 23.4N 76.4W 969 68
0000UTC 07.10.2016 132 24.4N 77.6W 965 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 144 25.8N 78.8W 954 72

Is Ukmet back W again? This model is so ridiculous...

[Alyono]

UKMET was initialized too far south

[AutoPenalti]

Sigh, this is the same as yesterday. This is where it all started, UKMET shifted west again.

[HurrMark]

Right up Narragansett Bay...NE has consistently seen some impact from this model...remember...25 yrs since Bob

[JaxGator]

It is so confusing one minute someone says trending east and then the next trending east.

The frame-by-frame forecasting is a little bit silly, because even the slightest change over the next six hours could spell the difference between out to sea and a hurricane landfall into NC/VA.

With that said, the GFS is being significantly more consistent in locking in a pattern beyond Cuba than the ECMWF is. The ECMWF has varied hundreds of miles between runs the last 24 hours.

True that. Though both models have been right and wrong at certain times in Matthew's life so far imo, but we'll see. That GFS run was also still close enough to bring effects to both Florida and Georgia.

[jlauderdal]

You guys are amazing on here you see on model trend and the west trend is done. We need to look for patterns and see if this continues before saying such a broad statement.

thats what we do and we do it real well

[HurricaneFrances04]

STOP IT UKMET

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 12.6N 73.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 01.10.2016 0 12.6N 73.3W 990 54
0000UTC 02.10.2016 12 12.6N 73.6W 990 56
1200UTC 02.10.2016 24 13.2N 74.3W 990 51
0000UTC 03.10.2016 36 14.6N 75.0W 988 51
1200UTC 03.10.2016 48 16.1N 75.3W 981 57
0000UTC 04.10.2016 60 17.7N 74.6W 973 60
1200UTC 04.10.2016 72 19.7N 74.4W 975 60
0000UTC 05.10.2016 84 21.1N 74.3W 976 61
1200UTC 05.10.2016 96 21.9N 74.7W 977 65
0000UTC 06.10.2016 108 22.6N 75.3W 975 63
1200UTC 06.10.2016 120 23.4N 76.4W 969 68
0000UTC 07.10.2016 132 24.4N 77.6W 965 68
1200UTC 07.10.2016 144 25.8N 78.8W 954 72

Lol this is gold. Windshield wiper effect in full affect here.

[HurricaneFrances04]

UKMET was initialized too far south

Almost by a full degree.

[storm4u]

Gfs gets me pretty good up here in mass

[Weatherboy1]

Yeah that U.K. Model is pretty much pointed right at us here. Of course, it has been swinging all over the place the last few days so maybe having it point at South Florida makes it guaranteed Matthew will miss us! Lol

[PTrackerLA]

UKMET has been far west the past 2 runs though with South Carolina landfalls

12z GFS is a scary solution for North Carolina up into the Northeast. Shades of Irene yet stronger.

[emeraldislenc]

I guess we all just have to wait.

[Raebie]

Any graphics?

[RL3AO]

Looks like the big two have started to recover from their really rough few days last week. Euro still has a sizable lead somewhere in the Northern Hemisphere at five days. Still hard not to trust it with the differences they have in the large scale.

[ObsessedMiami]

I guess we all just have to wait.

Most sensible post today

[WeatherEmperor]

Just wanted to let you know that the SFWMD spaghetti model website added a few more models such as the COTC (COAMPS-TC), NAM and the CEMN (Canadian Ensemble Mean). It looks like they also updated the Navy model to show the true NAVGEM which now updates every 6 hours instead of 12 hours on the spaghetti map. Just an FYI to everyone.

Source: http://my.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images ... plots.html

[tropicwatch]

Just because of the way Matthew is progressing this morning. I would be inclined to go with the BAMM and BAMS solution at this point.

[drezee]

STOP IT UKMET

Sizeable SW shift in the 4-5 day time frame.... Slower, heading NW towards Central Florida.

it is not at 12.6 and never was

[NDG]

I think NOAA has to sample the atmosphere north of P.R. to see if indeed a weakness in the ridge is developing between P.R & Bermuda, thus why the Euro and now the GFS show a more easterly trend in the short term, it could make a big difference in the track over Cuba & the Bahamas.

What's your take NDG?

Is all going to depend if indeed a weakness in the ridging near PR materializes or not, if it tracks closer to Jamaica the ridge is stronger than what the models show happening, if it tracks closer to the western tip of Haiti there will be a weakness in the ridge in the short term that could keep it away from FL before ridging builds over the NE US later next week.

[otowntiger]

UKMET was initialized too far south

Yep. Could be one reason for the change. How does that happen? Human error?