ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The eye you see is going to gyro around the larger CoC. It will appear to head SW then S then will pop N all of a sudden. It will then stair step NW...
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- chris_fit
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
drezee wrote:The eye you see is going to gyro around the larger CoC. It will appear to head SW then S then will pop N all of a sudden. It will then stair step NW...
This, most likely.
Maybe even a slight eastern illusion too as it swings back around.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
ronjon wrote:Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.
Where do you see that model, can you post a link to it?
TIA
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I notice, too, in the graphic at the top of this page, the "cone" now includes ALL of FL, NOT just the southeastern corner. Def. shifting westward, albeit minutely.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
So the 12z GFS goes for a landfall and is basically a re-run of Irene from 2011, expect probably stronger. UKMO is west but as others have said it starts too far south.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Michele B wrote:ronjon wrote:Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.
Where do you see that model, can you post a link to it?
TIA
Go upthread to #4156 and click link for storm 14.
Last edited by ronjon on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:12 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The MET's path according to the coordinates given


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Disclaimer: I am by no means even remotely a professional meteorologist, I'm just a Brit interested in tropical weather in the Atlantic. Always refer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or National Weather Service (NWS) for professional advice.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:UKMET has been far west the past 2 runs though with South Carolina landfalls
12z GFS is a scary solution for North Carolina up into the Northeast. Shades of Irene yet stronger.
Does the 12z GFS show a landfall then continue up the NE coast, or does it continue moving inland?
Last edited by Ken711 on Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Can someone pretty please post the latest GFS graphic?? Please? Is this the model thread?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:UKMET has been far west the past 2 runs though with South Carolina landfalls
12z GFS is a scary solution for North Carolina up into the Northeast. Shades of Irene yet stronger.
It would be even scarier if I could see it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Lifeless wrote:The MET's path according to the coordinates given
Looks like last night's GFS...
EURO starts in 30...let's see what it has dreamed up today!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12z GFS landfalls in Cuba around 937mbs, hits the outer banks around a similar strength then scoots up NE for a final landfall of 967mbs.
So 3 big hits predicted by the 12z GFS tonight from Matthew...and way to close to comfort for most of Florida, especially the eastern parts.
So 3 big hits predicted by the 12z GFS tonight from Matthew...and way to close to comfort for most of Florida, especially the eastern parts.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Michele B wrote:I notice, too, in the graphic at the top of this page, the "cone" now includes ALL of FL, NOT just the southeastern corner. Def. shifting westward, albeit minutely.
the NHC cone only includes a sliver of southeastern fl at this point. Nevertheless, focusing on whether a particular area is in or out of the cone is not the best way to interpret risk....since the cone only represents a 2 out of 3 chance that the center will remain within that region. it says nothing about hazardous weather, which can reside well away from the center, and therefore well outside of the cone. I would encourage you to look at the wind probability graphics. they have consistently depicted a low risk for Florida.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Should we even be looking at the GFS? I know that wxman57 and a couple of others have mentioned that the EURO usually wins out in these situations? Thoughts on those comments?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
12z HWRF rolling out and also gets this down to 937mbs before Cuba. Rest of the run is rolling out and so we will see what it wants to do with it.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Raebie wrote:Can someone pretty please post the latest GFS graphic?? Please? Is this the model thread?
Here's the animation of the impacts to the Bahamas and the US East Coast, 78 hr - 240 hr.
http://gph.is/2dzEKS5
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- terstorm1012
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Anyone know when (if) continent-wide balloon releases will begin? Like they did for Sandy and Joaquin? that will definitely help with the models.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
ronyan wrote:Raebie wrote:Can someone pretty please post the latest GFS graphic?? Please? Is this the model thread?
Here's the animation of the impacts to the Bahamas and the US East Coast, 78 hr - 240 hr.
http://gph.is/2dzEKS5
Thank you so much. But I'm almost sorry I asked...

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