ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[floridasun78]

question to my storm2k friend not able see models been busy working my yard in case . so now models going back to east what i been reading so what going on today runs?

[meriland23]

Is GFS taking note of the wave behind it that might mess it up?

[gatorcane]

Half a degree too far south doesn't have anything to do with the NW motion in the UKMET model north of Cuba.

Where do you see that model, can you post a link to it?

TIA

[Alyono]

holy GFDL face palm

It weakens this to a TROPICAL STORM 12 hours from now

[WeatherEmperor]

holy GFDL face palm

It weakens this to a TROPICAL STORM 12 hours from now

This lousy GFDL was supposed to have been retired in 2007 being replaced by the HWRF. Why in the world is this thing still being used? I don't get it anymore

[ThetaE]

holy GFDL face palm

It weakens this to a TROPICAL STORM 12 hours from now

Even better- that's 12 hours from 12z, so in about 6 hours from now

[shah83]

Hey Alonyo, what do you think of the modeling of Matthew's *size* in the Bahamas? I kinda sort of think it's on the smaller side...

[CDO62]

Levi Cowen tweet......

"Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits 4m4 minutes ago

Not sure I've ever seen the ECMWF mess up an initialization before. This is not the first time over the last 2 days"

https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/sta ... 7088720898

[Aric Dunn]

00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Euro has a bit more ridging on the Bermuda High through 24 hours.

[Alyono]

Hey Alonyo, what do you think of the modeling of Matthew's *size* in the Bahamas? I kinda sort of think it's on the smaller side...

I agree with the very large size. This will have land interaction and be under a ridiculously large upper high in the Bahamas

[floridasun78]

i not able see models runs today been busy have their shift to east again?

[SouthFLTropics]

00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.

Don't you mean stronger ridge???

[OntarioEggplant]

That Euro initialization is the biggest hot mess I've seen in a model.

ECMWF needs to do some emergency repair to this model ASAP.

[Blown Away]

Euro looks a little faster and slightly E of 00z through 48 hours...

[meriland23]

I think it was Matthews complexity that finally broke the King..lol

[WeatherEmperor]

That Euro initialization is the biggest hot mess I've seen in a model.

ECMWF needs to do some emergency repair to this model ASAP.

I remember a few days ago there was a discussion to manually create the vortex with the initial winds/pressure and the pro-mets were saying that would lead to potentially bogus output. They said it was better to let the model create its own vortex initialization. So how come now people are saying how bad the models initialization is if we are supposed to let the models do it themselves?

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... 72 Hours Moving NE over Haiti... The low/Nicole to the NE not as strong on 12z...

[Ken711]

00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.

Don't you mean stronger ridge???

That's what I was thinking as well.

[SouthFLTropics]

Compare this run to yesterday's 12z...The ridge looks stronger. And we all know how yesterdays 12z ended up