ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
How can we even trust this Euro run when it was initialized wrong?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Ken711 wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.
Don't you mean stronger ridge???
That's what I was thinking as well.
Through 72, That low or future Nicole to the NE weakening the ridge not as strong on 12z... Maybe Euro bends back W???
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Ken711 wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:Aric Dunn wrote:00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.
Don't you mean stronger ridge???
That's what I was thinking as well.
What I meant was the 00z last night showed a weaker ridge today at the time of the 12z Initialization. meaning the ridge is still in place and stronger each run than the model keeps saying. every one it weakens the ridge very quickly and it just has not been going the models way lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Looks quite similar to yesterday's 12z run so far, might be quite a change from the 00z run we'll know soon.
Also "Nicole" is not nearly as strong as the 00z run leading to much less of a weakness. Very interesting.
Also "Nicole" is not nearly as strong as the 00z run leading to much less of a weakness. Very interesting.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Ken711 wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:
Don't you mean stronger ridge???
That's what I was thinking as well.
What I meant was the 00z last night showed a weaker ridge today at the time of the 12z Initialization. meaning the ridge is still in place and stronger each run than the model keeps saying. every one it weakens the ridge very quickly and it just has not been going the models way lol
That is a very good point. If the ridge does not weaken like the models show each day this could shift west in a few days.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Ken711 wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:
Don't you mean stronger ridge???
That's what I was thinking as well.
What I meant was the 00z last night showed a weaker ridge today at the time of the 12z Initialization. meaning the ridge is still in place and stronger each run than the model keeps saying. every one it weakens the ridge very quickly and it just has not been going the models way lol
Ok, that's what I thought you meant. Just came across different.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:Looks quite similar to yesterday's 12z run so far, might be quite a change from the 00z run we'll know soon.
Also "Nicole" is not nearly as strong as the 00z run leading to much less of a weakness. Very interesting.
Hour 120 should tell the tale...The waiting is the hardest part!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Western US trough may not be as progressive this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I think it might get stuck like it did during yesterday's 12z run. Once again the Euro is in flip flop mode. I think it blew out it's flip flop and stepped on a pop top!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
If it's true that it's down to 4 mph I would think the turn would commenced soon.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
IMO, some of the slower timing with the Euro is due to this early NE turn then a bend back to the NW... If you smooth the Euro track out the timing would be about the same... The NHC would have a major track bust if the Euro is correct going over Haiti, so the NHC seems to discount this NE movement from 72-96 hours...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
pgoss11 wrote:How can we even trust this Euro run when it was initialized wrong?
The model doesn't need a perfect initialization of the TC vortex. Due to the equations that control the motions of the atmosphere that are employed in the model it can achieve balance fairly quickly. While having a better initialization would likely help, I'm not sold we have to throw out this run.
https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782277589528375296
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
120


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Wow might get completely blocked at 120 hours, look at all the ridging building in 

Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Stronger ridge, slower trough. That's a recipe for disaster, IMO. Not liking these trends.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Well, I'll be the first to claim that I thought the ridge wouldn't decay nearly that quickly, and that I thought that a much more Northwesterly motion would continue.... even to a point where I believed that Matthew might even pass south of Jamaica and head more toward W. Cuba & the S.E. Gulf. BUT, looking at the storm now it's hardly moving and in fact appears to me to be making an anti-cyclonic loop which might well be followed by the models insistent sharp northward turn. If the ridging were not weakening that much, there would be little reason why Matthew wouldn't at least be moving WNW at 5-10
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
LarryWx wrote:Western US trough may not be as progressive this run.
This will also be a very key aspect with regards to the long term prognosis with track with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
gatorcane wrote:Wow might get completely blocked at 120 hours, look at all the ridging building in
Yes, and the front over the plains isn't progressing nearly quick enough.
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