ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4201 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:13 pm

How can we even trust this Euro run when it was initialized wrong?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4202 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:15 pm

Ken711 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.


Don't you mean stronger ridge???


That's what I was thinking as well.


Through 72, That low or future Nicole to the NE weakening the ridge not as strong on 12z... Maybe Euro bends back W???
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4203 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:17 pm

Ken711 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:00z EUro has a much weaker ridge for the 12z initialization today. quite bit weaker. the Current run showing extensive ridging in place unlike last night 00z run.


Don't you mean stronger ridge???


That's what I was thinking as well.


What I meant was the 00z last night showed a weaker ridge today at the time of the 12z Initialization. meaning the ridge is still in place and stronger each run than the model keeps saying. every one it weakens the ridge very quickly and it just has not been going the models way lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4204 Postby PTrackerLA » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 pm

Looks quite similar to yesterday's 12z run so far, might be quite a change from the 00z run we'll know soon.

Also "Nicole" is not nearly as strong as the 00z run leading to much less of a weakness. Very interesting.
Last edited by PTrackerLA on Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:19 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4205 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:18 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Don't you mean stronger ridge???


That's what I was thinking as well.


What I meant was the 00z last night showed a weaker ridge today at the time of the 12z Initialization. meaning the ridge is still in place and stronger each run than the model keeps saying. every one it weakens the ridge very quickly and it just has not been going the models way lol

That is a very good point. If the ridge does not weaken like the models show each day this could shift west in a few days.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4206 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:19 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:
Ken711 wrote:
SouthFLTropics wrote:
Don't you mean stronger ridge???


That's what I was thinking as well.


What I meant was the 00z last night showed a weaker ridge today at the time of the 12z Initialization. meaning the ridge is still in place and stronger each run than the model keeps saying. every one it weakens the ridge very quickly and it just has not been going the models way lol


Ok, that's what I thought you meant. Just came across different.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4207 Postby NJWxHurricane » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:19 pm

looks like its moving nnw hr 96
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4208 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:19 pm

PTrackerLA wrote:Looks quite similar to yesterday's 12z run so far, might be quite a change from the 00z run we'll know soon.

Also "Nicole" is not nearly as strong as the 00z run leading to much less of a weakness. Very interesting.


Hour 120 should tell the tale...The waiting is the hardest part!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4209 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:22 pm

Western US trough may not be as progressive this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4210 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:22 pm

I think it might get stuck like it did during yesterday's 12z run. Once again the Euro is in flip flop mode. I think it blew out it's flip flop and stepped on a pop top!!!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4211 Postby caneman » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:22 pm

If it's true that it's down to 4 mph I would think the turn would commenced soon.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4212 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:22 pm

IMO, some of the slower timing with the Euro is due to this early NE turn then a bend back to the NW... If you smooth the Euro track out the timing would be about the same... The NHC would have a major track bust if the Euro is correct going over Haiti, so the NHC seems to discount this NE movement from 72-96 hours...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4213 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:22 pm

pgoss11 wrote:How can we even trust this Euro run when it was initialized wrong?


The model doesn't need a perfect initialization of the TC vortex. Due to the equations that control the motions of the atmosphere that are employed in the model it can achieve balance fairly quickly. While having a better initialization would likely help, I'm not sold we have to throw out this run.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782277589528375296


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4214 Postby meriland23 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:23 pm

120
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4215 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:24 pm

Wow might get completely blocked at 120 hours, look at all the ridging building in :eek:
Last edited by gatorcane on Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:24 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4216 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:24 pm

Moving NW or so at 120hrs.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4217 Postby ThetaE » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:25 pm

Stronger ridge, slower trough. That's a recipe for disaster, IMO. Not liking these trends.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4218 Postby chaser1 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:25 pm

Well, I'll be the first to claim that I thought the ridge wouldn't decay nearly that quickly, and that I thought that a much more Northwesterly motion would continue.... even to a point where I believed that Matthew might even pass south of Jamaica and head more toward W. Cuba & the S.E. Gulf. BUT, looking at the storm now it's hardly moving and in fact appears to me to be making an anti-cyclonic loop which might well be followed by the models insistent sharp northward turn. If the ridging were not weakening that much, there would be little reason why Matthew wouldn't at least be moving WNW at 5-10
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4219 Postby northjaxpro » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:26 pm

LarryWx wrote:Western US trough may not be as progressive this run.


This will also be a very key aspect with regards to the long term prognosis with track with Matthew.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4220 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:26 pm

gatorcane wrote:Wow might get completely blocked at 120 hours, look at all the ridging building in :eek:


Yes, and the front over the plains isn't progressing nearly quick enough.
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