ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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LarryWx
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4221 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:26 pm

Trouble is likely brewing for the CONUS because the western US trough didn't progress eastward at all from 96 to 120, which was the case on earlier runs. Look at Chicago, for example. 500 mb hts actually rose from 96 to 120.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4222 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:27 pm

Very large differences emerge at hr 120 on today's 12 Z Euro compared to yesterday's. The ridge to the north of Matthew is much stronger, and the trough over the Rockies is much farther west. However, since Matthew started farther east on today's run, it eventually reaches a similar position to yesterday's 12Z run at hr 120.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4223 Postby pgoss11 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:27 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:
pgoss11 wrote:How can we even trust this Euro run when it was initialized wrong?


The model doesn't need a perfect initialization of the TC vortex. Due to the equations that control the motions of the atmosphere that are employed in the model it can achieve balance fairly quickly. While having a better initialization would likely help, I'm not sold we have to throw out this run.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/782277589528375296




Thanks for the explanation..make sense.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4224 Postby Ken711 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:27 pm

chris_fit wrote:Moving NW or so at 120hrs.

Image


Ridge closing the door?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4225 Postby Aric Dunn » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:29 pm

12z yesterday .. with the low to the ne as well. weaker ridge. than todays 12z. also just about the same speed

Image


12z today
Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4226 Postby gatorcane » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:29 pm

Guess the UKMET is not that wacky after all with the NW turn in the Bahamas. It started this trend days ago.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4227 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:29 pm

EURO 144hrz.. still NW

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4228 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:31 pm

Talking about inconsistent, 12z Euro so far is identical to Thursday's 12z run, between then and now it has been all over the place.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4229 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:32 pm

NDG wrote:Talking about inconsistent, 12z Euro so far is identical to Thursday's 12z run, between then and now it has been all over the place.


That means it has a high chance of being right! Now, the hard part is picking the right run 5 days ahead of time :)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4230 Postby hurricaneCW » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:32 pm

NDG wrote:Talking about inconsistent, 12z Euro so far is identical to Thursday's 12z run, between then and now it has been all over the place.


Maybe the positioning but the upper air features are dramatically different from last run, strong shift towards the gfs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4231 Postby Blown Away » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:33 pm

12z Euro... Sizeable W shift from 00z through 144 hours...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4232 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:33 pm

chris_fit wrote:
NDG wrote:Talking about inconsistent, 12z Euro so far is identical to Thursday's 12z run, between then and now it has been all over the place.


That means it has a high chance of being right! Now, the hard part is picking the right run 5 days ahead of time :)


Terrible ball toss between Haiti and Jamaica!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4233 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:34 pm

chris_fit wrote:
NDG wrote:Talking about inconsistent, 12z Euro so far is identical to Thursday's 12z run, between then and now it has been all over the place.


That means it has a high chance of being right! Now, the hard part is picking the right run 5 days ahead of time :)


Ha! Good one! I didn't think about that one lol.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4234 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:37 pm

12Z Euro dumps over 10 inches of rain in a swath across Haiti. Not good at all. Some places see 15-20 inches.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4235 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:37 pm

OTS at 168
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4236 Postby TimeZone » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:37 pm

Little Nicole is back.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4237 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:38 pm

Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4238 Postby chris_fit » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:38 pm

OTS @ 168

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4239 Postby wxmann_91 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:40 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:12Z Euro dumps over 10 inches of rain in a swath across Haiti. Not good at all. Some places see 15-20 inches.


Large lumbering hurricane moving not-to-fast, days of moist upslope flow on the southern-facing mountains of Haiti. What could go wrong?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4240 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:40 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...


Is she really real?
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