ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

That ULL that was in Kentucky looks to be centered I. Michigan now ... plus the base of that trough sure seems to be bottoming out. Matthew definitely turns but how soon and how sharp? Still an open question

[NDG]

After I posted the latest GFS run on Facebook's GTMO Naval Base Page, a personnel replied to my post that during the past few years they have been replacing older concrete homes with wooden structures, many people not happy about it. I am sure it has to do with Military Budget cuts. Not smart for sure.

[CrazyC83]

It seems to be undergoing structural changes as well. The pressure is dropping but the winds are rising. Most likely, Matthew's lowest pressure won't be at the time it was Cat 5. Dean in 2007 was similar for a while (the first time it was Cat 5, the pressure was around 930mb, but it dropped to 918mb despite weakening to a Cat 4 - of course it restrengthened later).

[Aric Dunn]

So that upper low that was forecast to develop in the eastern gulf appears to have developed though its much farther south that what I believe the models were showing. regardless the mid level ridging to the north is still in place so no north moving yet...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html

[WeatherHoon]

Long time lurker here. Decided to finally make an account. Anyways, I think some of you might be just a tad bit too preoccupied with the continuation of the sw movement. It's going to turn north, likely very soon. Given Matthew's current speed (2mph...), that SW movement isn't going to put a dent in the expected northward turn forecast. Highly doubtful that it'll make it past 74W before turning, at least in the immediate term.

[drezee]

the nhc position was an estimate at 15z...recon last two recon positions were SW. it has slowed...

A. 01/12:47:40Z
B. 13 deg 21 min N
073 deg 11 min W
C. 700 mb 2650 m

A. 01/17:11:07Z
B. 13 deg 09 min N
073 deg 24 min W
C. 700 mb 2627 m


Distance: 20.1 miles over 4.4 hours
speed: 4kts/hr
Final bearing: 226° 29′ 41″ almost pure SW movement

[hipshot]

If that trough moves further north, how will that affect the turn to the north especially if the ridge advances further west.

[Alyono]

the shear also looks to be dropping off sooner than was forecast

[toad strangler]

After I posted the latest GFS run on Facebook's GTMO Naval Base Page, a personnel replied to my post that during the past few years they have been replacing older concrete homes with wooden structures, many people not happy about it. I am sure it has to do with Military Budget cuts. Not smart for sure.

The wood frame home is making a comeback even in S FL. Extensive testing has proven that wood when used with prescribed fasteners s in all the right spots outperforms concrete block. Much more flexible with out old world construction problems of the past.

[Michele B]

Long time lurker here. Decided to finally make an account. Anyways, I think some of you might be just a tad bit too preoccupied with the continuation of the sw movement. It's going to turn north, likely very soon. Given Matthew's current speed (2mph...), that SW movement isn't going to put a dent in the expected northward turn forecast. Highly doubtful that it'll make it past 74W before turning, at least in the immediate term.

Welcome, long-time lurker!

I agree, the forward speed slowing to nothing means the turn is imminent. I think the next "discussion" will be on how strong is the ridge that's supposed to take this thing either up the eastern seaboard, turn in to the coast or OTS!!

[NDG]

After I posted the latest GFS run on Facebook's GTMO Naval Base Page, a personnel replied to my post that during the past few years they have been replacing older concrete homes with wooden structures, many people not happy about it. I am sure it has to do with Military Budget cuts. Not smart for sure.

The wood frame home is making a comeback even in S FL. Extensive testing has proven that wood when used with prescribed fasteners s in all the right spots outperforms concrete block. Much more flexible with out old world construction problems of the past.

I don't believe that for nothing in the world, so how come buildings are not build with wood frames? The truth is that they build with wood because is cheaper.
If I had the money to build a house on the beach in S FL it would be on concrete stilts and 100% concrete, even the roof.

[chaser1]

Long time lurker here. Decided to finally make an account. Anyways, I think some of you might be just a tad bit too preoccupied with the continuation of the sw movement. It's going to turn north, likely very soon. Given Matthew's current speed (2mph...), that SW movement isn't going to put a dent in the expected northward turn forecast. Highly doubtful that it'll make it past 74W before turning, at least in the immediate term.

Welcome, new poster lol. Looking at present motion, I have to agree with you. In fact it appears as if Matthew is in the process of making a small anti-cyclonic loop which I then anticipate will be followed by that anticipated northward turn. Whether that turn will be due north or perhaps NNW, the fact remains that the models really did have a pretty good handle on both the previous WSW motion and then the sharp north turn. I never would have anticipated those varying factors in play to prevent a strong hurricane at that latitude, from continuing to move in a more Northwesterly direction.

[abajan]

How often (if ever) has a storm actually hit Colombia or South America for that matter?!

Venezuela has gotten a few storms from time to time, mainly fast low-latitude storms. I don't know if Colombia has ever gotten hit with anything, aside from things that have hit the northern peninsula after moving over Venezuela's.

And who can forget crazy Catarina that struck Brazil?

[floridasun78]

will turn happen today?

[chris_fit]

will turn happen today?

All signs point to it happening as we speak

[NDG]

Recon finds that the SE quadrant is the strongest right now, 123 knots surface winds by SFMR.

[Aric Dunn]

will turn happen today?

All signs point to it happening as we speak

what signs ? ridging is still in place to the north. its crawling when it was supposed to not stall. only thing in place is the weak upper low that was forecast to form though its much farther south.. have to wait some more.

[CrazyC83]

Recon finds that the SE quadrant is the strongest right now, 123 knots surface winds by SFMR.

If the storm is moving east, that would be the RFQ.

[chaser1]

Okay, well THERE'S something I've never seen before??? Look at the area of detached convection well to the east of the storms core. This persistent area of strong convection appears to present a feature that resembles a distinct warm spot? What the hell?

[toad strangler]

After I posted the latest GFS run on Facebook's GTMO Naval Base Page, a personnel replied to my post that during the past few years they have been replacing older concrete homes with wooden structures, many people not happy about it. I am sure it has to do with Military Budget cuts. Not smart for sure.

The wood frame home is making a comeback even in S FL. Extensive testing has proven that wood when used with prescribed fasteners s in all the right spots outperforms concrete block. Much more flexible with out old world construction problems of the past.

I don't believe that for nothing in the world, so how come buildings are not build with wood frames? The truth is that they build with wood because is cheaper.
If I had the money to build a house on the beach in S FL it would be on concrete stilts and 100% concrete, even the roof.

You don't have to believe me. I never said wood frame was going to REPLACE concrete. But it's coming back that I assure you or everything I have been working on with architects, building code officials, and testing the past two years was make believe.