ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4241 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:40 pm

I have no idea where this Nicole is coming from...but that might be the key in the long range.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4242 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:41 pm

still a miss on the ec. It merely brings Nicole as a hurricane toward the coast...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4243 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:42 pm

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...


It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4244 Postby ronyan » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:42 pm

Alyono wrote:still a miss on the ec. It merely brings Nicole as a hurricane toward the coast...

What's your opinion on whether a nicole can actually develop, NHC has it only at a 20% chance through 5 days.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4245 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:42 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...


Is she really real?


NHC gives her a 20% shot
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4246 Postby ronyan » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:43 pm

AJC3 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...


It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.


This is what I though watching the run, that trough looks quite weak though this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4247 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:44 pm

ronyan wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...


It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.


This is what I though watching the run, that trough looks quite weak though this run.


The ECMWF weakens the trough, which means it is unable to capture Matthew as he would control the environment still. That allows it to find the opening, even though it is fairly weak.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4248 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:44 pm

JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4249 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:45 pm

ronyan wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...


It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.


This is what I though watching the run, that trough looks quite weak though this run.


The key thing is that it's faster in the 12Z Euro, while the GFS is slower with it. When you combine this with the fact that the GFS is faster with the forward speed of Matthew, the result is that the TC is allowed to reach the NC coast before turning NE.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4250 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:47 pm

All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4251 Postby Alyono » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:48 pm

NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Didn't I say before the season it would be hot garbage this year? Anyone who has experience with models would have known that
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4252 Postby CrazyC83 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:50 pm

Alyono wrote:JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine


That would require an incredible amount of baroclinic forcing...the water off Maine is barely 15C even at its warmest. The Gulf of Maine is the coldest water in the Atlantic basin outside of the Arctic.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4253 Postby centuryv58 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:51 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:
Alyono wrote:JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine


That would require an incredible amount of baroclinic forcing...the water off Maine is barely 15C even at its warmest. The Gulf of Maine is the coldest water in the Atlantic basin outside of the Arctic.


Did Matt and Nicole just merge??
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4254 Postby TimeZone » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:55 pm

centuryv58 wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:
Alyono wrote:JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine


That would require an incredible amount of baroclinic forcing...the water off Maine is barely 15C even at its warmest. The Gulf of Maine is the coldest water in the Atlantic basin outside of the Arctic.


Did Matt and Nicole just merge??


Mattibal Lector just absorbed his little Sister. :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4255 Postby LarryWx » Sat Oct 01, 2016 1:56 pm

I think that the key for the CONUS threat is how far west he is as of hour 144 because I'd expect some kind of weakness to turn him north around 168, regardles,s per consensus. There is room for him to be further west than the model consensus at 144 depending on the strength of the ridge, similar to what the UKMET has shown.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4256 Postby GCANE » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:00 pm

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4257 Postby NDG » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:01 pm

Alyono wrote:
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?


Didn't I say before the season it would be hot garbage this year? Anyone who has experience with models would have known that


Yes you did.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4258 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:04 pm

How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4259 Postby AJC3 » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:21 pm

tarheelprogrammer wrote:How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?


A stronger ridge over the western Atlantic coupled with a slower trough moving into the eastern CONUS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4260 Postby tarheelprogrammer » Sat Oct 01, 2016 2:22 pm

AJC3 wrote:
tarheelprogrammer wrote:How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?


A stronger ridge over the western Atlantic coupled with a slower trough moving into the eastern CONUS.


Thank you. Been fishing all day and just got back in to look at the models. ECMWF makes me feel good but GFS would not be a good one for this area. Is it at all realistic?
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