ATL: MATTHEW - Models
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I have no idea where this Nicole is coming from...but that might be the key in the long range.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
still a miss on the ec. It merely brings Nicole as a hurricane toward the coast...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...
It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:still a miss on the ec. It merely brings Nicole as a hurricane toward the coast...
What's your opinion on whether a nicole can actually develop, NHC has it only at a 20% chance through 5 days.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
centuryv58 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...
Is she really real?
NHC gives her a 20% shot
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AJC3 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...
It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.
This is what I though watching the run, that trough looks quite weak though this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
ronyan wrote:AJC3 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...
It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.
This is what I though watching the run, that trough looks quite weak though this run.
The ECMWF weakens the trough, which means it is unable to capture Matthew as he would control the environment still. That allows it to find the opening, even though it is fairly weak.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
ronyan wrote:AJC3 wrote:DESTRUCTION5 wrote:Looks like Matt's little Sister Nicole yanks him this run ...
It's not that feature. It's the next fairly deep short wave trough moving through the eastern CONUS that does the trick.
This is what I though watching the run, that trough looks quite weak though this run.
The key thing is that it's faster in the 12Z Euro, while the GFS is slower with it. When you combine this with the fact that the GFS is faster with the forward speed of Matthew, the result is that the TC is allowed to reach the NC coast before turning NE.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
Didn't I say before the season it would be hot garbage this year? Anyone who has experience with models would have known that
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine
That would require an incredible amount of baroclinic forcing...the water off Maine is barely 15C even at its warmest. The Gulf of Maine is the coldest water in the Atlantic basin outside of the Arctic.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
CrazyC83 wrote:Alyono wrote:JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine
That would require an incredible amount of baroclinic forcing...the water off Maine is barely 15C even at its warmest. The Gulf of Maine is the coldest water in the Atlantic basin outside of the Arctic.
Did Matt and Nicole just merge??
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
centuryv58 wrote:CrazyC83 wrote:Alyono wrote:JMA has a hurricane on more steroids than Barry Bonds hitting eastern Maine
That would require an incredible amount of baroclinic forcing...the water off Maine is barely 15C even at its warmest. The Gulf of Maine is the coldest water in the Atlantic basin outside of the Arctic.
Did Matt and Nicole just merge??
Mattibal Lector just absorbed his little Sister.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I think that the key for the CONUS threat is how far west he is as of hour 144 because I'd expect some kind of weakness to turn him north around 168, regardles,s per consensus. There is room for him to be further west than the model consensus at 144 depending on the strength of the ridge, similar to what the UKMET has shown.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Alyono wrote:NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
Didn't I say before the season it would be hot garbage this year? Anyone who has experience with models would have known that
Yes you did.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?
A stronger ridge over the western Atlantic coupled with a slower trough moving into the eastern CONUS.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
AJC3 wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?
A stronger ridge over the western Atlantic coupled with a slower trough moving into the eastern CONUS.
Thank you. Been fishing all day and just got back in to look at the models. ECMWF makes me feel good but GFS would not be a good one for this area. Is it at all realistic?
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