ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Better for Fl this am, worse this afternoon. Still to close for comfort. Maybe the GFS and Euro will find some consistent agreement for several runs they we can have confidence in the forecast track. To many variables and to far out to expect any definitive answers. The NHC has its hands full with the near term track as that will have huge impacts by Monday.
0 likes
The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- AJC3
- Admin
- Posts: 4022
- Age: 61
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 7:04 pm
- Location: Ballston Spa, New York
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
tarheelprogrammer wrote:AJC3 wrote:tarheelprogrammer wrote:How realistic is the 12z GFS run though? What pushes it back into SC/NC area?
A stronger ridge over the western Atlantic coupled with a slower trough moving into the eastern CONUS.
Thank you. Been fishing all day and just got back in to look at the models. ECMWF makes me feel good but GFS would not be a good one for this area. Is it at all realistic?
Sure, but the strength of the Atlantic ridge is, in turn, dependent upon how much of a mid level reflection there will be in about 5-6 days w/r/t the remnants of the cutoff low currently over the eastern CONUS.
Still a lot of variables in play here.
1 likes
- Weatherboy1
- Category 5
- Posts: 1189
- Age: 49
- Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
- Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/image ... orm_14.gif
Not for nothing, but the model spread is really increasing from north of Cuba onward vs how things looked 24 hours ago.
Not for nothing, but the model spread is really increasing from north of Cuba onward vs how things looked 24 hours ago.
2 likes
- centuryv58
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 233
- Age: 67
- Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2016 1:24 pm
- Location: Southeast Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Weatherboy1 wrote:http://www.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/images/weather/plots/storm_14.gif
Not for nothing, but the model spread is really increasing from north of Cuba onward vs how things looked 24 hours ago.
Not another model fight...

1 likes
- PTrackerLA
- Category 5
- Posts: 5277
- Age: 41
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 8:40 pm
- Location: Lafayette, LA
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
My own experience with plotting models (or computes, as they used to call them) is they work much better when the weather pattern is very predictable, not when it's complex, as we have at the present...
0 likes
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:12z UKMET
The 12z UKMET might not be so crazy with it's initialization with this thing moving slowly south for now.
0 likes
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4239
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
PTrackerLA wrote:12z UKMET
Is that the Ukie that was initialized too far south...it appears to be.
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- Kingarabian
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 16082
- Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
- Location: Honolulu, Hawaii
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.
1 likes
RIP Kobe Bryant
- Hybridstorm_November2001
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 2813
- Joined: Sat Aug 21, 2004 2:50 pm
- Location: SW New Brunswick, Canada
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.
I don't know about that. Overall the long-range GFS, right or wrong, has been rather consistent in wanting to skirt the Outer Banks and then slam Matthew into the area between western Nova Scotia and Long Island.
If you don't believe me, take a gander at the saved images from the past three nights on my weather blog -
http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/
1 likes
- terstorm1012
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1314
- Age: 43
- Joined: Fri Sep 10, 2004 5:36 pm
- Location: Millersburg, PA
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:Kingarabian wrote:NDG wrote:All I know is that the Euro has been very inconsistent so why put so much weight to it?
Because the GFS has been just as bad. It's tough because both of these models are so inconsistent. Outside of 72hrs, it's anyone's guess.
I don't know about that. Overall the long-range GFS, right or wrong, has been rather consistent in wanting to skirt the Outer Banks and then slam Matthew into the area between western Nova Scotia and Long Island.
If you don't believe me, take a gander at the saved images from the past three nights on my weather blog -
http://hybridstorm-weatherblog.blogspot.ca/
yep, it has been. Quite consistent. We need a massive balloon release to pin this down.
0 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I know it the NAM and dont follow the actual position.. but the ridging almost never goes away this run and is stronger..
as a result the TC is very very slow compared to 12z..
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=193
gulfstream data in it maybe ?
as a result the TC is very very slow compared to 12z..
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=193
gulfstream data in it maybe ?
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Thats a lot of ridging.. much different ..


0 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
- DESTRUCTION5
- Category 5
- Posts: 4423
- Age: 43
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:25 am
- Location: Stuart, FL
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Aric Dunn wrote:Thats a lot of ridging.. much different ..
It also shows a 40 MPh tropical storm lol
1 likes
GATOR NATION IS E V E R Y W H E R E !
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4239
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
The NAM is terrible for Tropical Systems but does do halfway decent for the overall synoptic pattern.
1 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 21238
- Age: 42
- Joined: Sun Sep 19, 2004 9:58 pm
- Location: Ready for the Chase.
- Contact:
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:The NAM is terrible for Tropical Systems but does do halfway decent for the overall synoptic pattern.
yep thats only reason I look at it.
1 likes
Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask

Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
I will go with CLP5 right now, since there is nothing out there to influence this system to go anywheres. Let's see what will be happening in the next 36 hours. LMAO.
1 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Also all the models are trying to say for some strange reason Matthew should be down to a Cat 1 or 2 in the next 36 hours, that is a big problem, because a stronger system will have a totally different path than a weaker system.
0 likes
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4239
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
Blinhart wrote:Also all the models are trying to say for some strange reason Matthew should be down to a Cat 1 or 2 in the next 36 hours, that is a big problem, because a stronger system will have a totally different path than a weaker system.
I agree, the models are having a difficult time resolving this issue with Matthew's strength.
1 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
- SouthFLTropics
- Category 5
- Posts: 4239
- Age: 50
- Joined: Thu Aug 14, 2003 8:04 am
- Location: Port St. Lucie, Florida
Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models
GFS is rolling...here we go!!!
0 likes
Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests