ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[floridasun78]

my weatherman say track all depend on high if move more east faster

[Blinhart]

Has a system ever split into 2 separate entities? The way this thing looks, it could easily decide to break off that blob and leave it behind causing it to become it's own system. I think that would be a first and scientists would be studying this for years.

[Exalt]

In regards to the blob, it's going to be more of a problem for the Caribbean than for Matthew. Imagine the sheer amount of distance that gale/hurricane force winds are extended out by that blob. That thing on its own would most likely be classified as a strong TS or minimal Cat 1, that convection is STRONG.

Besides the blob, Matthew looks the most stable and healthy it's been the recent course of its existence. Its eye looks gorgeous, the CDO is extremely compact, I wouldn't be surprised if it was 155-160mph right now.

[Blown Away]

Slow NW movement IMO...

[Hurricaneman]

Slow NW movement IMO...

and might pick up a tad of speed but not over 10mph of movement

[Alyono]

that blob in no way has hurricane force winds. Aircraft confirmed today that the area of hurricane force winds is very small

[Exalt]

that blob in no way has hurricane force winds. Aircraft confirmed today that the area of hurricane force winds is very small

I wonder what would happen say it hypothetically gets cut off and still maintains momentum under the same conducive conditions. Would it be able to survive?

Also, I'm not surprised, the core itself is extremely compact and symmetrical, however an ERC could potentially still take place.

[Alyono]

that blob in no way has hurricane force winds. Aircraft confirmed today that the area of hurricane force winds is very small

I wonder what would happen say it hypothetically gets cut off and still maintains momentum under the same conducive conditions. Would it be able to survive?

it would be sheared apart before it could ever form a LLC

[chaser1]

Slow NW movement IMO...

Yeah, that's what I'm seeing too. Loopty-loops seem to be over and Matthew appears to have already crossed west of the official NHC track - for the moment. Now, assuming "one shift west, and two shifts north", than smoothed out there's not too much difference (well unless one lives in Jamaica of course). For those living in Haiti... or Florida, the risk potential changes with a significantly unexpected northwest track; That would potentially be great news for Haiti, but more worrisome for Florida. One thing I'll say, NHC is pretty damn good with their nearer term forecast tracks so ordinarily it would be pretty odd for Matthew to completely blow well past their projected forecast track, especially with so much model consensus arguing that a track correction is practically imminent.

[AutoPenalti]

There's also that theory that Matthew could be pumping the ridge to its northeast.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
I believe I could make an argument for Matt being west of track already... WNW to NW movement...

[CourierPR]

It seems to me that if Matthew gets to 76 or 77 west before crossing Cuba, that could cause more of a peninsular Florida problem.

[Sanibel]

Guys this is tracking W of predicted Forecast Points. Popping out of the stall well WNW for the moment.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Evil Jeremy]

It's going to cross 74W before 14N.

Movement past 2 1/2 hours (everything since images came back through) has been stairstepping WNW:
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... map=county

[chaser1]

Matthew is technically west of forecast, but we're talking about by roughly 10-20 miles. One full degree is approx 55 miles. Moving at the speed of glue, it's gonna take a pretty continuous WNW or NW track for a good 12 hours before I would imagine we'd see even a one degree westerly forecast track correction

[Blown Away]

Definitely W of forecast, but is it also moving behind schedule?

[ozonepete]

The convective cluster or "blob" is now starting to wane. This is as you would expect, since Matthew has started moving definitively northwest. It means the convergence of the easterly trade winds with Matthew's wsw flow is starting to ease. This will allow Matthew's circulation to become more circular and thus more symmetric and as it continues over very warm water and shear drops, it could see another decent uptick in strength before it gets to Jamaica and Haiti.

[Blown Away]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... short.html
Click the loop in reverse and see how quickly Matt's wind field is expanding...

[CourierPR]

If this farther west motion continues, I would expect a west shift in the models later.

[chaser1]

Looks like the storm is going through a temporary slight weakening. Cloud tops have warmed and perhaps Matthew is (or has just) completed a minor eyewall replacement cycle (as if it's prior 6 mile diameter eye perhaps expanding to um 9 miles changes all that much).