ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[PTrackerLA]

Significant shift west in the Euro tonight. That's an extremely close call for North Carolina this run.

[Hurrilurker]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

[sma10]

I question what the heck is going on this run with "Nicole". The Euro has sorta gone back and forth with this feature as to whether it will develop - on runs where it does develop it has tended to curve Matthew much quicker. Well ... here it develops Nicole, yet Matthew makes it pretty darned far West. Doesn't make a lot of sense, and suggests to me the possibility that if Nicole doesn't develop, Matthew may make it even further west then what is shown here.

[northjaxpro]

168hrs: totally different steering...what happened??

Trough moving in from the west grabs Matthew and moves the cyclone NNE in the 168 hr period.

[SouthFLTropics]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

Florida is first in the line of fire when it comes to CONUS impacts so that is why there is so much focus there. In addition the membership on S2K probably has a disproportionate amount of members from Florida versus NC. First and foremost concern right now is Jamaica/Haiti/Cuba. The loss of life there could be very high.

[SunnyThoughts]

AT hour 216..looks as though it moves due east...but doesn't move very far between 192 and 216

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... 216 hours and just off NC coast and moved very slowly ENE from 192 - 216... Ridge might be blocking...

[Bocadude85]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

We live in Florida...of course we are going to be worried about a storm moving closer to our coast. Just as I am sure the people in North Carolina are concerned about the recent trends also.

[chaser1]

I think New England is in trouble this run...that trough slid right past Matthew to the north and didn't pick him up.

No it didn't. Looks as if the pattern is becoming quite progressive with overall ridging along the Eastern Seaboard and any shortwave energy approaching from the upper Plains and Midwest, to be pulling up over and around high pressure building in. In fact, it looks like 500mb heights begin to rapidly build East from a building ridge south of Texas. Looks to me that the longer Matthew were to remain in the Caribbean, the greater likelihood of a US threat.

[SunnyThoughts]

10 days out and we will STILL be watching this system. sheesh

[AtlanticWind]

GFS And Euro both west of hurricane center forecast at 120 hours expect a slight shift west at 5AM.

[SouthFLTropics]

10 days out and we will STILL be watching this system. sheesh

Matthew will be racking up some ACE.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z Euro... 216 hours and just off NC coast and moved very slowly ENE from 192 - 216... Ridge might be blocking...

It might get stuck there...it's a TRAP!!!

Nope...all of a sudden at hour 240 a trough digs and sweeps it NE.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... 240 hours OTS quickly now to the NE... Interesting run...

[Hurrilurker]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

We live in Florida...of course we are going to be worried about a storm moving closer to our coast. Just as I am sure the people in North Carolina are concerned about the recent trends also.

Of course, I'm not trying to say people should not be concerned for Florida (or Haita, Jamaica, Cuba, etc.). But in CONUS, a direct strike to NC looks not improbable whereas all the models only show Florida getting grazed at best (and most keep it off the coast altogether). Based on the likely direction of motion of the cyclone and the geography of the coastline.

But really, everyone from Florida to Maine should be keeping tabs on this right now.

[chaser1]

WAIT! That's NOT Matthew teasing the N. Carolina Coastline at 216 hour? It's Julia - she's still alive! (lol)

[SouthernBreeze]

WAIT! That's NOT Matthew teasing the N. Carolina Coastline at 216 hour? It's Julia - she's still alive! (lol)

LOL, almost seems that way - it's rained here about every day since she passed by!

[PTrackerLA]

Hi-res Euro showing hurricane force gusts all along NC coast and a good bit inland. This run will wake some people up.

[p1nheadlarry]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

Florida is first in the line of fire when it comes to CONUS impacts so that is why there is so much focus there. In addition the membership on S2K probably has a disproportionate amount of members from Florida versus NC. First and foremost concern right now is Jamaica/Haiti/Cuba. The loss of life there could be very high.

This is how I feel, Haiti is still off put by the 2010 quake, them taking the brunt is not what I'd want to see happen.

[znel52]

Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.

Agreed. I think there are just a lot of ppl from FL on this forum. They are concerned rightfully so but once the storms pass FL the thread usually slows down lol. I am definitely keeping an eye on this as it will be very close to my neck of the woods. Carteret County NC. We stick out like a sore thumb so us and the outer banks take a lot of landfalls from storms.