ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[brunota2003]

06Z 250-850mb steering currents.

[Bocadude85]

Matthew isn't forecast to cross 75W until 25N..that's a lot of northward movement from where he is now...better stop moving wnw now.

[PTrackerLA]

It's amazing how that feeder band to the east has not let up for over a day. Thankfully there hasn't been any land to affect it's been producing deeper convection than Matthew for a while.

[Evil Jeremy]

The WNW march continues. I'd make a friendly wager that Matthew crosses 75W before 15N, which would really mess with the current forecast.

[AutoPenalti]

Caught this snippet from this morning which could be what's happening right now

You can see the very western extent (nose of the ridge) extends to the western edge of Cuba. If the trough in the GOM does not dig deeper to help erode that ridge further, it is possible the ridge may hold and keep Matthew moving a bit farther west just a bit longer

[brunota2003]

When you are using the steering current charts, the stronger the storm, the higher you need to click on, on CIMMS. If you look at the buttons, it gives you a rough mb and knot range. Right now, Matthew "should" be the 200mb, but it's movement fits more with the 250mb one.

[northjaxpro]

Caught this snippet from this morning which could be what's happening right now

You can see the very western extent (nose of the ridge) extends to the western edge of Cuba. If the trough in the GOM does not dig deeper to help erode that ridge further, it is possible the ridge may hold and keep Matthew moving a bit farther west just a bit longer

[/quote

I made this observation yesterday. Thanks for briniging this back up. Indeed, it may be a possibilty that this may be going on right now!

[northjaxpro]

How about another player on the scene now folks. NHC a short time ago has designated Invest 98L out in the Central Atlantic. That could factor in possibly in helping to keep Matthew away from the U.S. East Coast.. We will have to see.

Long week ahead with so many uncertainties still on the table with Matthew.

[SouthernBreeze]

it's up to 20% & 30% development chances now, we'll soon see

[AutoPenalti]

How about another player on the scene now folks. NHC a short time ago has designated Invest 98L out in the Central Atlantic. That could factor in possibly in helping to keep Matthew away from the U.S. East Coast.. We will have to see.

Long week ahead with so many uncertainties still on the table with Matthew.

Some invest this is...

[SouthernBreeze]

looks like it just went "Poof" (lol). I don't see where those development percentages come in!

[LarryWx]

As northjax and others have mentioned, Matthew appears to be going west of forecast. The 0z Euro's 24 hour forecast (for 8 PM EDT Sunday) is for him to be near 15.0N, 74.5W. But he is already to near 74.0W while still down near 13.8N! He's going to need to average a NNW heading over the next 16+ hours for this to get to near the Euro 24 hour forecast point. This is looking pretty unlikely as of now but it isn't impossible. We'll see.

[bamajammer4eva]

Oh well stranger things have happened like with the storm name from 1998 which Matthew replaced. Perhaps Mitch's ghost is haunting Matthew

Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and various tropical cyclone forecast models anticipated a turn to the north, threatening the Yucatán peninsula. Instead, Mitch turned to the south due to a ridge that was not observed while the storm was active.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Mitch

[AtlanticWind]

Not gaining latitude yet ,could change the models for sure

[ozonepete]

Weakening for sure. Cloud tops have warmed noticeably and the eye is open to the southwest.

[AutoPenalti]

Weakening for sure. Cloud tops have warmed noticeably and the eye is open to the southwest.

I've notice that as well, but it looks to be temporary. Still moving W/WNW.

[chaser1]

I'll list this link here and in the Model thread, but am simply doing so for those curious about Matthew's present motion in relation to forecast track (which is heavily based on model input). This link is for the Model Diagnostic Discussion, which views which models seem to best be handling the various steering and upper level features over the CONUS. Makes for interesting reading as ridge heights, troughs, etc. are analyzed verses various model guidance and often foretells of upcoming nuances that might influence Matthew's future motion. For those who don't have it, here is the link:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd

[brunota2003]

If Matthew's motion continues, it looks like the eye should cross 75W around 14.3N

[SouthernBreeze]

I'll list this link here and in the Model thread, but am simply doing so for those curious about Matthew's present motion in relation to forecast track (which is heavily based on model input). This link is for the Model Diagnostic Discussion, which views which models seem to best be handling the various steering and upper level features over the CONUS. Makes for interesting reading as ridge heights, troughs, etc. are analyzed verses various model guidance and often foretells of upcoming nuances that might influence Matthew's future motion. For those who don't have it, here is the link:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd

Interesting for sure: ...GRADUAL WEAKENING AND RETREAT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW POWERFUL HURRICANE
MATTHEW OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN SEA TURN GRADUALLY TO
NORTHWEST AND THEN NORTH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...

[Frank2]

Looks like it'll be squeezed between the trough approaching from the NW and the ridge to the NE which seems stronger than expected - IMHO not liking this setup for us here in South Florida, though perhaps it might force a NNE motion - we shall see...

P.S. Do the pro mets know why this hurricane seems to be cojoined to a constant large blob of deep convection to its east - unusual...

My posts are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. It's just my opinion and not backed by sound meteorological data, and NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.