ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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jasons2k
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4521 Postby jasons2k » Sun Oct 02, 2016 2:45 am

Please save the back and forth for the discussion forum and keep this thread focused on the models - thank you!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4522 Postby chaser1 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:10 am

I'll list this link here for those curious about Matthew's present motion in relation to forecast track (which is heavily based on model input). This link is for the Model Diagnostic Discussion, which views which models seem to best be handling the various steering and upper level features over the CONUS. Makes for interesting reading as ridge heights, troughs, etc. are analyzed verses various model guidance and often foretells of upcoming nuances that might influence Matthew's future motion. For those who don't have it, here is the link:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4523 Postby fci » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:11 am

znel52 wrote:
Hurrilurker wrote:Everyone is worried about Florida but it looks like NC could be in the greatest danger, as well as DC, NY, NJ, MA if it continues up the coast.


Agreed. I think there are just a lot of ppl from FL on this forum. They are concerned rightfully so but once the storms pass FL the thread usually slows down lol. I am definitely keeping an eye on this as it will be very close to my neck of the woods. Carteret County NC. We stick out like a sore thumb so us and the outer banks take a lot of landfalls from storms.


Just like when there is a Louisiana or Texas threat and the board is inundated with those folks.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4524 Postby TimeZone » Sun Oct 02, 2016 3:42 am

The good thing about the GFS shifting further E and making landfalll in Atlantic Canada is Matthew's leftover's make landfall in Nova Scotia, which is an area that deals with Nor-Easter (weather bombs) much more powerful than whatever little Matt's leftovers could possibly have to attempt to offer. :lol:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4525 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:13 am

Blown Away wrote:Image
00z Euro... 140 hours a few hundred miles E of Daytona and moved NW from 120-144... Thumb ridge building??? Looks like a zombie face??? :eek:
these thumb ridges come and go on the modeling as do weak troughs, we see these features come and go on the modeling and mark s spoke of the thumb ridge on one of his videos yesterday..AJC3 mentioned a thumb ridge on the models almost a week ago although that one was much farther south at that point in the modeling at that time and implied a bigger Florida threat...no surprise here with these shifts, the models have had problems all week with the Atlantic high, expecting the models nail a track more than 5 days is unrealistic...nhc has an average 240 mile track error at 5 days, they have continually repeated this in their discos, they are very upfront about difficulty with intensity forecasting although some of it with matt seems to be self imposed(read Alnyos posts on the issue)

odd things can happen to storms as they get tangled up with land interaction around the Windward Passage region so lets see what happens there with intensity before we call for the annihilation of the Bahamas chain
Last edited by AJC3 on Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:22 am, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: You probably meant the Windward passage. The Mona Passage is between Hispanola and PR. Plus you also misspelled my handle. :-)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4526 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:52 am

GFS consistent with Matt's over far east Cuba and in the same position at 66. The Bermuda ridge is a bit stronger

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4527 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:52 am

06z GFS...more ridging and left of the 00z through 72 hours.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4528 Postby bamajammer4eva » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:54 am

GFS 06z Initialization trend of last 3 runs---westward track's effect? we'll see

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4529 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:59 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4530 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:00 am

Yup. West again.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4531 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:02 am

Bermuda ridge stronger trend

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4532 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:04 am

Image


Image
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:06 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4533 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:06 am

This is going to hit somewhere from Ga to NC on this run.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4534 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:09 am

Also worryingly the upper trough that is due to sweep this away looks like its getting flatter and slightly weaker each run...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4535 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:10 am

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4536 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:12 am

Just a hint of NNE at 126hrs, but still going to be a close call, way too close for comfort!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4537 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:14 am

Biggest 06z change on GFS...more ridging and faster forward speed.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4538 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:15 am

OBX gets nailed, hour 138
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4539 Postby KWT » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:15 am

Landfall on the 06z, same place as Irene.

This run shows though that any slight shift west or east of the track in the early stages WILL make a difference in this set-up.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4540 Postby xironman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 5:15 am

Don't go camping on the beach at Cape Lookout next weekend. Reminds me of Irene, the sound side flooding on the OBX would be epic.

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