ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[brunota2003]

A 936mb hurricane making landfall directly over MHX (Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS office) right at 00Z (they are an upper air site.........) at hour 138. Starting to get into the "Uh oh" realm...

[OuterBanker]

Just returned from Myrtle Beach and when I went to bed last night the GFS was a little more offshore. The Euro was the best option and comfortably ots. This morning both are now closer with the GFS showing landfall in NC. Anyway today is the first opera of the season at the Norfolk opera house and we will be gone all day. When I return I'm sure it will change again to offshore. Besides, I'll have all the rest of the week to obsess about it anyway.

[NDG]

I remember when the Euro used to be king at day 6-7 range, definitely not any more. You can see how it messed up and is trending to a stronger ridging to its north and east.

[stormreader]

Just throwing up a few outliers here for consideration

Thanks for that GCane! Those silly and unreliable outliers, right! don't understand. From the beginning, the forecast for this storm has been very difficult. Euro swinging back and forth, GFS out more consistent (but maybe more consistently wrong) out toward Bermyda at first, then settling just barely at a safe distance offshore. But the dynamics of the ringing and troughing N of the storm, and the timetable involved have always been uncertain. Now people are saying Fl and N could be very seriously impacted! But with the uncertainties this has always been the case. And the track may be further west than major models now predict. Don't be surprised if Mathew emerges out of the Caribbean near Key West and makes a run up the Fl West Coast! Been saying this for days. It's a very reasonable course considering the strength of the Bermuda High. Mathew is showing some of those west tendencies now, and I think models are just beginning to pick up on that. I would expect more west shifts toward Key West and the West Coast. People should not be shocked by this.

[GCANE]

Just throwing up a few outliers here for consideration

prepare for incoming fire about those models...they could verify more by accident then sound modeling

LOL, I think that "trocoidal wobble" put all the models to shame yesterday.

[ronjon]

The key here as others have said is the strength of the Atlantic ridge, how far northeast the storm moves in 72 hours, and overall speed of the storm. GFS, ECM, and UKMET all are showing stronger ridging. These are our best global models. This should be concerning for us all along the US east coast.

[stormreader]

The key here as others have said is the strength of the Atlantic ridge, how far northeast the storm moves in 72 hours, and overall speed of the storm. GFS, ECM, and UKMET all are showing stronger ridging. These are our best global models. This should be concerning for us all along the US east coast.

Indeed! And with increased ridging, you could easily have Fl in the right front quadrant if it takes that run up the Fl West Coast, as I have frequently speculated that it might.

[weathaguyry]

Well, last night I looked at 0z GFS and breathed a sigh of relief here on Long Island, as It had Matthew sparring us, and making a hard right turn. I wake up today, and half asleep I looked at the 6z GFS, and when I looked at it I had a mini heart-attack... (Guess it's not too good of an idea to sleep in while tracking a category 4 hurricane)

[Frank2]

Definitely the ridging is an option most models did not offer, but it seems to be at this moment. Still, NHC insists on a weakening and northward track. Hard to see that happening until it gets west of 75:

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/782558394242719744

[NDG]

12z models

[caneman]

Bastardi is on crack. The euro has had wide swing variances. Other than their little WSW swing, I don't see much accuracy.

[Lighthousewatch28]

Hi all, new user. Anyone have an opinion on how Matthew may affect the South Carolina coast?

[caneman]

With that ridge its looking more likely central or western Jamaica and then western bahamas. Going to be a close call for Florida.

[northjaxpro]

Bastardi is on crack. The euro has had wide swing variances. Other than their little WSW swing, I don't see much accuracy.

I agree with you. If anything EURO has been very inconsistent. Bastardi is off his rocker.

[NDG]

Bastardi is on crack. The euro has had wide swing variances. Other than their little WSW swing, I don't see much accuracy.

To be fair he is talking about day 5, day 7 is where it has been all over the place.
But I remember just recently it had Matthew track over the heart of Haiti which chances of that happening is slim to none by now, so yes it has not been that right, it has been right biased.

[NDG]

A definite westward shift by most models days 5-7 compared to earlier run. CMC continues with its right bias because it keeps developing 98L.

[sandy18]

A 936mb hurricane making landfall directly over MHX (Newport/Morehead City, NC NWS office) right at 00Z (they are an upper air site.........) at hour 138. Starting to get into the "Uh oh" realm...

I live in Newport NC getting a little worried here

[pgoss11]

Hi all, new user. Anyone have an opinion on how Matthew may affect the South Carolina coast?

I also live in South Carolina (Charleston). It's really just watch and be prepared. Everyone should be prepared at the beginning of hurricane season anyway. The nice thing about the SC coastline is that it has a receding coastline topigraphically and its really difficult to get a direct hit from the south here. What angle it approaches the coastline will be important. A lot will determine on if there are in changes in track in the Caribbean as that would affect us here in SC.

[Happy Pelican]

Well, last night I looked at 0z GFS and breathed a sigh of relief here on Long Island, as It had Matthew sparring us, and making a hard right turn. I wake up today, and half asleep I looked at the 6z GFS, and when I looked at it I had a mini heart-attack... (Guess it's not too good of an idea to sleep in while tracking a category 4 hurricane)

This image makes me literally sick. Nearly 4 years of rebuilding would be gone. I need to move away from the coast.