ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3481 Postby Evil Jeremy » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:55 am

Blown Away wrote:Now that Matt seems to have started this N turn, I'm betting the NHC will be more confident in the long term and rule out Florida in the 4-5 day window...


Not necessarily. Now the question for Florida is what amount of west it moves after Cuba, where and when it starts that movement, and what the Bermuda ridge, 98L, and approaching front are up to. Lots of factors. Most reliable models indicate some form of NW movement in the Bahamas. The current North movement really just determines where which island gets the first brunt.
Last edited by Evil Jeremy on Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:56 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3482 Postby tolakram » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:55 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3483 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:56 am

all the info you need about the potential thumb ridge https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9dgau4om3ZY mark suddath cuts a video at 3 am, you bet he has you covered, he is cranking out videos several times a day. watch them and levi of course, honestly its better analysis than you will get on any tv station by a longshot, these guys have the altitude to go deep into the situation, tv mets cant ..lets see if next euro run still has that ridging..if it does I would be getting edgy in the outerbanks..btw, as the days roll on with the gfs and euro keeping matthew offshore of sofla its looking much better...just doesn't seem to be enough push to get it within 150 miles..that can change but one thing that has been consistent is a run through the Bahamas...no all clear for sure..of course i was ready to hit submit i see a tweet from bastardi with the ukmet map showing it coming onshore in sofla

was at the store this morning and bottled water supplied were ate 50% so someone is taking it seriously, i picked up three cases myself
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3484 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:57 am

mrbagyo wrote:[img]http://i.imgur.com/Hu6Kraf.jpg
Mike Theiss is going to chase this one in CUBA. Wow


I hope he makes it to Punta Maisi.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3485 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:57 am

ERC seems to have just about completed
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3486 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:57 am

It has been moving almost due north now during the past couple of hours. NE quadrant is strong again.

164500 1414N 07439W 6975 02660 9452 +147 +134 062037 040 052 002 03
164530 1415N 07438W 6957 02682 9460 +139 +139 075042 045 056 000 05
164600 1416N 07437W 6979 02667 9470 +142 //// 088062 073 103 006 05
164630 1418N 07437W 6985 02694 9513 +140 //// 093081 084 130 006 05
164700 1418N 07436W 6945 02764 9574 +124 //// 104102 109 129 070 01
164730 1419N 07435W 6956 02798 9639 +128 +128 111124 131 135 079 00
164800 1421N 07434W 6975 02840 9706 +119 +119 110129 133 139 074 03
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3487 Postby hurricanefloyd5 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 11:58 am



...POWERFUL HURRICANE #MATTHEW MEANDERING BUT EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD...

11:00 AM EDT Sun Oct 2
Location: 14.0°N 74.6°W
Moving: W at 3 mph
Min pressure: 947 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3488 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:01 pm

AdamFirst wrote:
mrbagyo wrote:Mike Theiss is going to chase this one in CUBA. Wow


Only possible because of current administration...I hope he has up to date maps 8-)


Surprisingly google maps is up to date down there, it should work on his phone, the problem is internet service down there, not very good.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3489 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:02 pm

AutoPenalti wrote:
toad strangler wrote:NHC shifts cone oh so slightly to the E @11

http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc10 ... _NL_sm.gif

Wow, considering this is still moving W, that's pretty strange.

That's because it's not where it's moving in the short term, but about where it's expected to move in the long run (I guess).
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3490 Postby 1900hurricane » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:03 pm

Rain contamination of SFMR values is less of an issue at the greater wind speeds, but this recent batch looks undoubtably contaminated. I'd still go 115 kt for 18Z, but would also be alright with keeping the current 120 kt intensity.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3491 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:05 pm

Blown Away wrote:Now that Matt seems to have started this N turn, I'm betting the NHC will be more confident in the long term and rule out Florida in the 4-5 day window...

Wi don't think so. The new UKMET got Matt eastward all the way to 73.8 over Cuba before moving it NW into Florida so turn now as forecast doesn't change the uncertainty IMO.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3492 Postby Alyono » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:05 pm

looks like this is again nearing cat 5 based upon the latest aircraft data

I would not be surprised if this makes a sub 900mb run during the next 24 to 36 hours. The shear is basically gone. We will now see Matthew under favorable conditions
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3493 Postby northjaxpro » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:08 pm

I would caution folks to say definitely that the north turn has begun.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:09 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3494 Postby NDG » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:08 pm

Yeap, it has gotten stronger but those winds have not yet to the surface.

Code: Select all

Significant Wind Levels
Level   Wind Direction   Wind Speed
954mb (Surface)   15° (from the NNE)   112 knots (129 mph)
950mb   20° (from the NNE)   119 knots (137 mph)
943mb   30° (from the NNE)   161 knots (185 mph)
938mb   40° (from the NE)   154 knots (177 mph)
935mb   40° (from the NE)   161 knots (185 mph)
932mb   45° (from the NE)   160 knots (184 mph)
928mb   50° (from the NE)   168 knots (193 mph)
922mb   55° (from the NE)   148 knots (170 mph)
917mb   55° (from the NE)   151 knots (174 mph)
913mb   60° (from the ENE)   145 knots (167 mph)
906mb   65° (from the ENE)   149 knots (171 mph)
897mb   70° (from the ENE)   131 knots (151 mph)
887mb   80° (from the E)   137 knots (158 mph)
875mb   80° (from the E)   116 knots (133 mph)
859mb   90° (from the E)   101 knots (116 mph)
855mb   90° (from the E)   102 knots (117 mph)
850mb   80° (from the E)   110 knots (127 mph)
846mb   80° (from the E)   95 knots (109 mph)
825mb   75° (from the ENE)   85 knots (98 mph)
698mb   95° (from the E)   83 knots (96 mph)
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3495 Postby psyclone » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:10 pm

Blown Away wrote:Now that Matt seems to have started this N turn, I'm betting the NHC will be more confident in the long term and rule out Florida in the 4-5 day window...


Florida won't be ruled out until the storm is safely moving above our latitude...until then the outlooks will show some risk as has been consistent. It is low...it has been consistently low and will remain so unless the track shift west but it not 0. I would expect to see the "impacts to florida cannot be ruled out" notation for many more advisories. It is very important to understand and differentiate possibility from probability. A lot of folks have difficulty with this concept but it is critical in many aspects of life and this is no exception.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3496 Postby LarryWx » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:10 pm

The 12Z UKMET is as has been noted back to an ominous run for the SE US. I wonder if it has that low NE/E of Bermuda. This run is similar to the 10/1 12Z and 9/30 12Z runs threatening FL/GA/lower SC. The 10/1 0Z run was also ominous but hit Charleston, which is a little further NE than where these last three 12Z runs are aimed. So, 4 of the last 5 UKMET runs have been threatening to the SE Conus.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3497 Postby abajan » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:12 pm

tolakram wrote:
HURRICANELONNY wrote:They locked the model thread. Whats up with that. Who cares about the back and forth. Probably last name till 2017. News hyping a little here in S Fl. Models have been pretty consistent of east of Florida. I hope for some feeder bands just to say; Ill be back next year. Hope no one gets fully affected. But looks like parts of east cuba and Haiti will get the brunt. Hope Matthew heads out to sea after heading north. :roll:


We have asked numerous times to take the discussion here, the model thread is intended for model runs and direct discussion about them. If the model thread fills up with needless discussion it becomes useless and might as well be rolled into here.

Absolutely. Whenever I see a post in a models thread which obviously doesn't belong there, but it's one to which I want to respond, I click the quote button and then copy all of the text and paste it into a reply in the relevant discussion thread, where it belongs.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3498 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:12 pm

holy crap we have movement.. still NHC has to re adjusting it since it still does not want to cooperate lol
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3499 Postby blp » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:14 pm

LarryWx wrote:The 12Z UKMET is as has been noted back to an ominous run for the SE US. I wonder if it has that low NE/E of Bermuda. This run is similar to the 10/1 12Z and 9/30 12Z runs threatening FL/GA/lower SC. The 10/1 0Z run was also ominous but hit Charleston, which is a little further NE than where these last three 12Z runs are aimed. So, 4 of the last 5 UKMET runs have been threatening to the SE Conus.


Several times we have seen the UKmet lead with the idea that the Euro follows. So we will see if the Euro comes back with a more agressive NW turn after Cuba.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3500 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 12:15 pm

Also have to look out for land interaction sometimes circulations get caught up on the high terrain..
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