Blown Away wrote:Now that Matt seems to have started this N turn, I'm betting the NHC will be more confident in the long term and rule out Florida in the 4-5 day window...
Not necessarily. Now the question for Florida is what amount of west it moves after Cuba, where and when it starts that movement, and what the Bermuda ridge, 98L, and approaching front are up to. Lots of factors. Most reliable models indicate some form of NW movement in the Bahamas. The current North movement really just determines where which island gets the first brunt.