ATL: NICOLE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Alyono]

The wave that may help steer Matthew away from the USA

[northjaxpro]

Talk about a potential saving grace(Invest 98L) for the U.S. East Coast!!! This system just may be it in a HUGE way.

Potential development of this system could help to erode the ridge across the Western Atlantic and hopefully keep Matthew safely.away off shore of the U.S.

However, Bermuda and the Canadian Provinces could still be potentially.in harms way.

[AJC3]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN OCT 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Matthew, located over the central Caribbean Sea.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
near a broad area of low pressure located about 600 miles
east-northeast of the Leeward Islands. The low has moved into an
area where upper-level winds could be a little more conducive for
development during the next day or two, but these winds are
expected to become unfavorable again by the middle of the week.
Therefore, significant development of the low is still expected to
be slow to occur while it moves west-northwestward or northwestward
at 15 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system located about 600 miles east-northeast
of the Leeward Islands continues to produce an area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some development of this system is possible during
the next couple of days before upper-level winds become less
conducive for development. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward or northwestward at 15 mph during the next
several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[NDG]

Is 30% just based on the Euro & crazy CMC?

[northjaxpro]

Despite shear, 98L has developed a decent blowup of convection this morning.

The BIG QUESTIONS: How much can 98L can develop and the potential impacts or implications to Tropical Cyclone Matthew next week?

[CrazyC83]

A stronger 98L could be our best friend right now. The only thing, though, is that it has to avoid Bermuda (and so does Matthew).

[CrazyC83]

Any model runs can go here. The main thing we are looking for, though, is how it influences Matthew's future track.

[northjaxpro]

I agree with you CrazyC83 in that if this can organize into a decent named storm (Nicole) next week, it may be enough to erode the Western Atlantic ridge and keep a weakness in place for Matthew to get away far enough off shore away from the U.S. East Coast.

However, Bermuda and the Canadian provinces may not be out harms way even if this happens. Just have to.watch this very closely, both with MATTHEW and Invest 98L.

[Evil Jeremy]

A stronger 98L could be our best friend right now. The only thing, though, is that it has to avoid Bermuda (and so does Matthew).

How strong does 98L need to develop for it to have large track implications for Matthew?

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system located about 600 miles east-northeast
of the Leeward Islands continues to produce an area of showers
and thunderstorms. Any development of this system should be slow
to occur due to strong upper-level winds. This system is expected
to move northwestward at 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[CrazyC83]

A stronger 98L could be our best friend right now. The only thing, though, is that it has to avoid Bermuda (and so does Matthew).

How strong does 98L need to develop for it to have large track implications for Matthew?

I would think at least close to, if not, hurricane intensity.

[SapphireSea]

A stronger 98L could be our best friend right now. The only thing, though, is that it has to avoid Bermuda (and so does Matthew).

How strong does 98L need to develop for it to have large track implications for Matthew?

I would think at least close to, if not, hurricane intensity.

Not much at all actually. Enough to have some sort of a vigorous MLC and drop of height at mid levels. This will be more of a factor as it becomes extra tropical. Maybe enough forcing for a decent low which will erode the ridge.

[Ken711]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Pennsylvania, USA
98 L pulling away from upper low to southwest and looks like it does have a chance to develop.

[cycloneye]

A broad low pressure system located about 500 miles northeast of the
Leeward Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Some development of this low could occur in the next couple of days
before strong upper-level winds make conditions unfavorable for
formation. This system is expected to move northwestward at 10 to
15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this low is possible
during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become
unfavorable for development. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[EquusStorm]

Looking better this morning. Would not be shocked for this to become a brief Nicole.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure located about 400 miles north-northeast
of the northern Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some development of this low is possible
during the next couple of days before upper-level winds become
unfavorable for development. This system is expected to move
west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent

[cycloneye]

Nicole very soon?

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of
low pressure located about 430 miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands have increased and become better organized today.
Further development of this system is possible during the next
couple of days before upper-level winds become unfavorable for
development. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

[CrazyC83]

I agree with you CrazyC83 in that if this can organize into a decent named storm (Nicole) next week, it may be enough to erode the Western Atlantic ridge and keep a weakness in place for Matthew to get away far enough off shore away from the U.S. East Coast.

However, Bermuda and the Canadian provinces may not be out harms way even if this happens. Just have to.watch this very closely, both with MATTHEW and Invest 98L.

Yeah we haven't really been paying attention to this at all.