ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[johngaltfla]

When's the next RECON mission heading in?

If you ever need it, NOAA has the full schedule on this webpage:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php

[SouthernBreeze]

Last couple satellite frames show blob to E smallest I've seen it in days

[bqknight]

Motion is back west. This is getting interesting by the hour.

Still looks to be NW to me but definitely west of the NHC point at this time. More NW, when they have it going NNW.

[CrazyC83]

http://northeastweatherwx.com/index.php ... g-matthew/

My thoughts on Matthew right now. Heavy focus on the east coast scenario, but the overall picture is considered. I see 5 reasonable scenarios right now.

[Blown Away]

Just my opinion only, Thinking Florida gets a no mention in the 5pm Discussion... Except for Ukmet, 12z models safely keep Matt away from Florida... Carolinas likely to become CONUS concern now that were inside the 4-5 day window... Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas not so lucky...

[AdamFirst]

Just my opinion only, Thinking Florida gets a no mention in the 5pm Discussion... Except for Ukmet, 12z models safely keep Matt away from Florida... Carolinas likely to become CONUS concern now that were inside the 4-5 day window... Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas not so lucky...

From the 5 PM discussion:

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible
hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or
how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east
coast.

[pgoss11]

Excerpt from the NHC 5PM discussion:

In
general, the track models have not shifted closer to the coast with
the exception of the U.K. Met. Office global model, which is an
outlier. The official track forecast is along essentially the same
trajectory as the previous one, but is a little slower than before.
This is slightly west of the latest multi-model consensus.

Although the official forecast continues to show a track east of
Florida, it is still too soon to rule out possible possible
hurricane impacts there. It is also too soon to know whether, or
how, Matthew might affect the remainder of the United States east
coast.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Just my opinion only, Thinking Florida gets a no mention in the 5pm Discussion... Except for Ukmet, 12z models safely keep Matt away from Florida... Carolinas likely to become CONUS concern now that were inside the 4-5 day window... Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas not so lucky...

No way IMO does Florida not get a mention as models overall have trended west today. I see the cone moving a little west as the last cone was east of the UKMET, Euro GFS average at about 100 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

Just my opinion only, Thinking Florida gets a no mention in the 5pm Discussion... Except for Ukmet, 12z models safely keep Matt away from Florida... Carolinas likely to become CONUS concern now that were inside the 4-5 day window... Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas not so lucky...

I'll take that bet...way to early for the NHC to not mention the unknown impacts to FLA. We'll know very shortly.

[SeGaBob]

It's already out...

[SouthFLTropics]

Just my opinion only, Thinking Florida gets a no mention in the 5pm Discussion... Except for Ukmet, 12z models safely keep Matt away from Florida... Carolinas likely to become CONUS concern now that were inside the 4-5 day window... Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas not so lucky...

I'll take that bet...way to early for the NHC to not mention the unknown impacts to FLA. We'll know very shortly.

Or we'll know right now!!!

[Blown Away]

Just my opinion only, Thinking Florida gets a no mention in the 5pm Discussion... Except for Ukmet, 12z models safely keep Matt away from Florida... Carolinas likely to become CONUS concern now that were inside the 4-5 day window... Jamaica, Haiti, Cuba, and Bahamas not so lucky...

I'll take that bet...way to early for the NHC to not mention the unknown impacts to FLA. We'll know very shortly.

Or we'll know right now!!!

Ok, but we are close to a no mention...

[Hurrilurker]

Are the NOAA floater loop pages down for everyone else too? The page itself loads but the sat image is blank. Was working fine until a few minutes ago.

EDIT: Never mind, it just came back, temporary glitch I guess.

[SeGaBob]

NHC insists it won't make it to 75W for another 3 days...not so sure about that. Probably won't matter either way...

[floridasun78]

too my eye i don't see it going west tip Haiti the way look on sat pic

[AutoPenalti]

This is inching closer and closer to Jamaica.

Updated Steering levels:

[ozonepete]

NHC insists it won't make it to 75W for another 3 days...not so sure about that. Probably won't matter either way...

But 74.9 6 hours from now, right?

[floridasun78]

looking forecast point on sat pic not going by forecast on their map nhc their have M over tip Haiti don't see that but like their say on don't go by point on map go by cone

[nativefloridian]

This is inching closer and closer to Jamaica.

Updated Steering levels:

Would be interested in knowing what your thoughts are on this.

[SouthernBreeze]

Going over Jamaica has been out of the picture for a while. Do you think the land interaction of doing so would alter the track further on?