ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

For all of the wobble watching it has always seemed to me that the eye would pass between Haiti and Jamaica and not landfall on either. I still think that's what will happen. It is certainly not going far enough from the forecast path to call for a major rethinking of the track for the next 2-3 days. It's only after it crosses Cuba and gets well into the Bahamas that the models even differ much.

[SouthFLTropics]

Florida nor any of the East Coast are in the clear. The error cone is right offshore. If the storm tracks to the left side of the cone then we're under the gun. Stay tuned.

[SeGaBob]

NHC insists it won't make it to 75W for another 3 days...not so sure about that. Probably won't matter either way...

But 74.9 6 hours from now, right?

I mean I think It will pass 75W but a lot sooner than 3 days.

[AutoPenalti]

For all of the wobble watching it has always seemed to me that the eye would pass between Haiti and Jamaica and not landfall on either. I still think that's what will happen. It is certainly not going far enough from the forecast path to call for a major rethinking of the track for the next 2-3 days. It's only after it crosses Cuba and gets well into the Bahamas that the models even differ much.

Well wasn't the poleward turn suppose to happen yesterday at noon?

[AutoPenalti]

BTW here's the loop of the steering from the past 5 days till now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

[GCANE]

Looking at the last 4 vortex messages, core temp has been consistently dropping.
Went from 9C to 5C.

[SeGaBob]

Looks to be right at 75 W now.

[SouthernBreeze]

looking like only needs 1 more W wobble & its over 75W

[Emmett_Brown]

This is a fun time to be wobble watching. The official track says basically due north from here until Wed (with the exception of a slight bend to the NE and back slightly NW). That means any sort of W component beyond this point requires some adjustment to the track.

[BobHarlem]

For all of the wobble watching it has always seemed to me that the eye would pass between Haiti and Jamaica and not landfall on either. I still think that's what will happen. It is certainly not going far enough from the forecast path to call for a major rethinking of the track for the next 2-3 days. It's only after it crosses Cuba and gets well into the Bahamas that the models even differ much.

Well wasn't the poleward turn suppose to happen yesterday at noon?

The 5AM track from yesterday see http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2016/gr ... _013_0.GIF did pass it west of 75W before it got to 15N, which seems to be what is happening, that track was a bit fast, but it seems to be closer to that in the near term. The NHC's official track has been great so far, although the short term positions were consistently too far east. It's balanced by the fact they had it going over Jamaica a few days ago, and now over Haiti. I suspect it'll shoot the gap between them. Still bad for haiti since you don't want to be right of an eyewall in a system like this.

[floridasun78]

ok this we all need do let see if eye get closer southern area of Jamaica next few hour if do no way going between Cuba and Haiti

[Aric Dunn]

last few images .. its heading away from the 00z nhc position wnw.. gaining distance.

[jlauderdal]

I'll take that bet...way to early for the NHC to not mention the unknown impacts to FLA. We'll know very shortly.

Or we'll know right now!!!

Ok, but we are close to a no mention...

they mention a left turn per ukmet...gfs or euro starts biting then they will need to start going left...g4 data will be interesting moving forward with the ridge...im surprised they reduce intensity in the Bahamas to the degree they did...the bahamas themselves will have next to zero effect..it will be expanding in size so thaat can cause an issue and possible inflow from land to the south...anyway, its all noise anyway this far out...Bahamian peeps pros at dealing with big hurricanes, construction is solid but intense hurricanes cause big problems of course...for sofla s2k people you can listen to 810 am for radio from freeport, comes in as clear as day in FLL..for others tunein.com for this station and others..http://go-jamaica.com/power/ for jamiaca

[txwatcher91]

Looking at the last 4 vortex messages, core temp has been consistently dropping.
Went from 9C to 5C.

Is this a sign of strengthening or weakening?

[LarryWx]

He looks like he's about to cross 75W near 14.7N.

[SouthDadeFish]

Basically, right at 75W now, for what it's worth.



Looks to me to be fairly steady, slow NW movement over the past 8 hours or so.

[Alyono]

Looking at the last 4 vortex messages, core temp has been consistently dropping.
Went from 9C to 5C.

Is this a sign of strengthening or weakening?

That would be a sign of weakening. It's having some issues with its attempted eyewall replacement

[SunnyThoughts]

Every jog west will hopefully help Haiti from receiving the worst...but puts Jamaica more in the bullseye.

[GCANE]

BTW here's the loop of the steering from the past 5 days till now.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... _loop.html

That ULL, SE of the Yucatan that broke from the trough, may end up adding a little more NW kick to the steering.

[SapphireSea]

Looking at the last 4 vortex messages, core temp has been consistently dropping.
Went from 9C to 5C.

Is this a sign of strengthening or weakening?

May not be indicative of the strength completely, but stronger is warmer. Could cool and warm back up in short order.