ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3621 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:18 pm

Still no obvious secondary eyewall on SW side of the storm yet:

Image

Pretty remarkable that the small inner-core has been able to hold steady for this long.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3622 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:18 pm

JohnMoralesNBC63 mins
If the “cone” was something you could draw by hand, I would have it include Florida. But it’s automated based on th… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/782690155488546816
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3623 Postby sponger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:18 pm

SunnyThoughts wrote:Every jog west will hopefully help Haiti from receiving the worst...but puts Jamaica more in the bullseye.


My thoughts too. Haiti has a bad track record when it comes to hurricanes. Jamaica is better equipped to deal with it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3624 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:18 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3625 Postby lrak » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:19 pm

WOW every 10 seconds a 30ft wave.

Conditions at 42058 as of
(3:50 pm EST)
2050 GMT on 10/02/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 46.6 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 58.3 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 26.2 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 11 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 8.1 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): NE ( 44 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.26 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.14 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 77.4 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.8 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 77.4 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 78.6 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 50.5 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 54.4 kts
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3626 Postby jlauderdal » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:20 pm

jlauderdal wrote:JohnMoralesNBC63 mins
If the “cone” was something you could draw by hand, I would have it include Florida. But it’s automated based on th… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/782690155488546816
that tweet he made was in response to my question: "do you like their track or west of it"
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3627 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:20 pm

Extremely healthy outflow. If Matthew can work out its inner core issues it could easily become >160mph.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3628 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:22 pm

Alyono wrote:
txwatcher91 wrote:
GCANE wrote:Looking at the last 4 vortex messages, core temp has been consistently dropping.
Went from 9C to 5C.


Is this a sign of strengthening or weakening?


That would be a sign of weakening. It's having some issues with its attempted eyewall replacement


Just got in from mojin de gras.

From what I can see, not a lot of convection to heat up the core.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3629 Postby baitism » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:23 pm

Wasn't there a hurricane a few years ago that started and EWRC and never really got out of it?
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3630 Postby AdamFirst » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:25 pm

NHC doesn't have the storm crossing 75W until Wednesday

Looks like it will cross that tonight
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3631 Postby floridasun78 » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:26 pm

jlauderdal wrote:JohnMoralesNBC63 mins
If the “cone” was something you could draw by hand, I would have it include Florida. But it’s automated based on th… https://twitter.com/i/web/status/782690155488546816

wow he think could done by hand cone done what models show
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3632 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:29 pm

The theme persists

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3633 Postby SunnyThoughts » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:31 pm

Been listening to Power 106 out of Jamaica, they are definitely preparing very well, as they always do. http://www.jamaicaradio.net/power-106/
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3634 Postby nativefloridian » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:32 pm

GCANE wrote:The theme persists

Image


IMO....looks like Matthew has Jamaica in its' sight.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3635 Postby alienstorm » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:32 pm

For what it is worth, here in SE Fla the winds are brisk from the east and ENE, indicative of the high pressure being stronger.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3636 Postby Aric Dunn » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:37 pm

last two frames showing yet another westerly motion.. only mentioning the wabbles ( which I rarely do) but getting awfully close to Jamaica.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3637 Postby GCANE » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:40 pm

Very pathetic rain-rate and intensity.
Obviously, from sitting too long in one spot.

Image
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3638 Postby sponger » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:42 pm

Going to be Ugly for Haiti!
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3639 Postby p1nheadlarry » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:43 pm

baitism wrote:Wasn't there a hurricane a few years ago that started and EWRC and never really got out of it?


Ike, after crossing Cuba
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Hurricane - Discussion

#3640 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Oct 02, 2016 4:45 pm

p1nheadlarry wrote:
baitism wrote:Wasn't there a hurricane a few years ago that started and EWRC and never really got out of it?


Ike, after crossing Cuba


Also Irene in 2011
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