ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

The eye seems more visible right now than it's been all day.

[SapphireSea]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

Is it because the ridge would weaken or is there another trough coming?

This time of the year you can expect a shortwave to travel from the West coast and arrive at the east coast with modest digging. Enough to snag anything N of 20 degrees n lat. With a good progressive pattern every 4-6 days a piece of energy will exit the EC that can take Matt OTS.

This is why any amount of speed he gains will be the determining factor. Especially if it has any Wward component.

[tarheelprogrammer]

North movement has started now. Appears so looking here in the last frame.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=10

[Aric Dunn]

well last couple hours now. its pretty much stalled.. this is silly..

[Bocadude85]

North movement has started now. Appears so looking here in the last frame.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=10

Looks to me it's finishing up another cyclonic loop like the one earlier today, afterwards it continued on to the WNW...

[Hurricaneman]

Looks stationary to me

[jlauderdal]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

[OntarioEggplant]

North movement has started now. Appears so looking here in the last frame.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=10

Can we quit saying things like this based on one or two frames? Until there is a clear trend north over several frames, it's still wobbling wherever it wants to.

[Aric Dunn]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

it would be the opposite.

[CourierPR]

North movement has started now. Appears so looking here in the last frame.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=10

I'm not sure I would infer a definite change in direction based on one frame off a loop.

[AutoPenalti]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

it would be the opposite.

I thought that trough was suppose to dissapate...

[1900hurricane]

It doesn't matter how many years of untouched stored heat content the Caribbean has, if Matthew doesn't start moving soon, upwelling is going to get to it.

[TJRE]

LEVI ROCKS!!!!

https://youtu.be/lEIlTgTC9T8

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/

[Aric Dunn]

North movement has started now. Appears so looking here in the last frame.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=10

Can we quit saying things like this based on one or two frames? Until there is a clear trend north over several frames, it's still wobbling wherever it wants to.

however I do agree with you about the wobble watching in a general sense.. at this point every west wobble brings into Jamaica.. also .. "it" makes no decisions" "it" is not alive. its follow a pattern the models are not doing well with at all ... lol

[SouthFLTropics]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

it would be the opposite.

My thought would be that it would increase the odds to Florida/Georgia/SC but decrease the odds from NC north. A trough would catch it by the time it's up there but slower now allows the ridge to build in over the Bahamas and increase the threat to the SE.

[gatorcane]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

If it ends moving much more slowly into the Bahamas out of the Caribbean, one would think the ridge would have even more of an opportunity to expand west and southward since right now the models have Matthew west of the ridge center around the time the ridge tries to build back west. So that could mean more of a NW or even WNW turn in the Bahamas if that would occur.

[jlauderdal]

Every delay in the storm moving north is improving the chances it misses east coast.

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

it would be the opposite.

trough in the ne moves out..ridge builds in...unfortunately every loop it takes means slower forward motion..it can be difficult pulling these big systems out of the carib

[SapphireSea]

That is in complete disagreement with levi cowans analysis ths evening

it would be the opposite.

I thought that trough was suppose to dissapate...

Dissipate and lift out are two different things. Even when a trough lifts out to the NE there are cases this time of year where the Bermuda Atlantic ridge retreats east some. This allows storms to ride the Western periphery N ward and NNE. The next energy could be 2-3 days away and depending on deep layer and if the ridge builds back in, that there is risk to the NE CONUS. But more often than not there is enough time for the next trough to emerge and begin pulling a storm NE.

When a ridge erodes and builds in again, there is a period where steering is collapsed which further hedges the bet in favor of a recurve. Overall if you look at W Atlantic WV imagery you see the Bermuda High axis retreating eastward. We have to see if it builds back quickly and how much. Slow Matt and faster ridge rebuild would be a more short mid term west movement but still slow then OTS. Faster Matt and slow rebuild is higher risk for EC impact but still generally OTS.

[bahamaswx]

Thought the east blob was finally dying off, but it has come roaring back now.

[Nimbus]

The 18z GFDL is faster than the 18z HWRF so the GFDL is closer to the outer banks.
Seems like the current forward speed has slowed a little and the eye is clearing out(again).