2003 compared to other active hurricane seasons

[JetMaxx]

"Kate" was just christened as a tropical storm at 5 p.m. EST, and becomes the sixth earliest date since 1870 for the 11th named storm to form in the Atlantic Basin.

Earliest in the season for the 11th named storm to form:

1. AUG 28 (1995, 1936, 1933)
2. SEP 21 (1971)
3. SEP 22 (2002)
4. SEP 24 (1998, 1969)
5. SEP 26 (1966)
6. SEP 27 (2003/ Kate)
7. SEP 28 (2000)
8. OCT 02 (1916)
9. OCT 03 (1990)

----------------------------------------

Earliest in the season for the 12th named storm to form:

1. AUG 28 (1995)
2. AUG 31 (1933)
3. SEP 07 (1936)
4. SEP 22 (2002)
5. OCT 01 (1969, 2003/ LARRY)
6. OCT 05 (2000, 1998)
7. OCT 06 (1990, 1916)
8. OCT 07 (1953)
9. OCT 13 (1949)

----------------------------------------

Earliest in the season for the 13th named storm to form:

1. SEP 08 (1936, 1933)
2. SEP 12 (1995)
3. OCT 07 (1969)
4. OCT 09 (1990)
5. OCT 10 (2003 - "Mindy")
6. OCT 12 (1916)
7. OCT 16 (1887)
8. OCT 17 (2000, 1950)
9. OCT 22 (1998)

----------------------------------------

Earliest in the season for the 14th named storm to form:

1. SEP 10 (1936, 1933)
2. SEP 27 (1995)
3. OCT 14 (2003 - "Nicholas")
4. OCT 16 (1990, 1969)
5. OCT 19 (2000)
6. OCT 29 (1887)
7. NOV 05 (2001)
8. NOV 11 (1916)
9. NOV 24 (1998)

-----------------------------------------

There have ONLY been six (6) hurricane seasons since 1870 with more than 14 named storms. Here are when the 15th named storm occurred in those seasons (which would be called "Odette" if #15 is reached in 2003):

1. SEP 16, 1933
2. SEP 19, 1936
3. SEP 30, 1995
4. OCT 28, 1969
5. NOV 24, 2001
6. NOV 27, 1887

-------------------------------------------------

MOST ACTIVE ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASONS SINCE 1870:

21 named storms: 1933
19 named storms: 1995
17 named storms: 1969 (there was also a subtropical storm = 18)
17 named storms: 1887
16 named storms: 1936
15 named storms: 2001
14 named storms: 2003
14 named storms: 2000
14 named storms: 1998
14 named storms: 1990
14 named storms: 1953
14 named storms: 1916
13 named storms: 1996
13 named storms: 1971
13 named storms: 1950
13 named storms: 1949


****UPDATED AS OF OCTOBER 14, 2003 AT 11 PM EST****

[cycloneye]

As always Perry thanks for bringing the stats that are very helpful to the members.

[WeatherEmperor]

Good job on your homework

[JtSmarts]

Great stats, I always look forward to your informative posts!!

[wxman57]

There definitely seems to be a bias toward more named storms in the recent history. Part of this is definitely due to increased tropical activity during the present enhanced thermohaline circulation pattern (i.e., warmer SSTs) in the Atlantic. But I think an equal part or more is probably due to politics and better satellite data. The NHC has taken to naming systems that probably wouldn't have been named in the past, like Bertha last year or Grace this year, among other storms. Anything close to land is more likely to be named than not. Also, from the 1800s through the 1960s, I'll bet many tropical storms went unnoticed.

Interesting statistics, though.

[tropicana]

In 2002....SUB tropical depression 12 was born on sept 20, became SUB tropical storm KYLE on sept 21...and became pure tropical storm on Sept 22.

In addtion, TD 13 in 2002 was born on sept 21 and became the 12th named storm LILI on sept 23.

[AussieMark]

i bet some years in the 1950's-1960's would have had more storms than the best tarck shows but weren't noticed.

i.e
1950,1954,1955,1956,1959,1961, 1963.

[JetMaxx]

Bump ... updated 11 p.m. October 13th for "TS Mindy"...and possible upgrade of TD 19 to "Nicholas" tomorrow...

[Stormsfury]

Some interesting thoughts.

Currently, the AOML/HRD is working on the reanalysis of the 1910's, 1920's, and 1930's (from an email I received from Chris Landsea).

They are intending to do the reanalysis of every single year and possibly go back all the way to 1800. So far, the latest reanalysis project which featured the years 1851-1910 found some startling finds.

1890 didn't have just one lone hurricane according to their findings.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1890.jpg

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1890.txt

1887 had 19 storms, not the original 17 tying 1995 for the second most active season of record (for the time being until the reanalysis project is complete).

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1887.jpg

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1887.txt

1886 had 7 landfalling hurricanes in the U.S., now the record, and also featured the strongest landfalling hurricane of that time period. The Indianola Hurricane which basically completely wiped out that town in Texas so severely, it was never rebuilt.

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1886.jpg

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1886.txt

SF

[JetMaxx]

Sorry Mike...I was going by a hurricane track chart book I recieved as a gift from an NHC forecaster in 1981....it has every chart from 1871 to 1980 (I've added the years since).

I'm sure the HURDAT re-analysis project will include some more surprises.....including an increased intensity for the infamous Labor Day hurricane in 1935 (the current estimate of 140 kts @ 892 mb is ridiculously low in light of the extremely small diameter of the hurricane, along with verified accounts of the condition of many fatalities being very reminiscent of an airliner crash scene or aftermath of a violent tornado...dismembered and beheaded human remains). It's more likely sustained winds were 175-180 kts (200-210 mph)with gusts of 200 kts (230 mph) or more (similar to a F4 tornado).

[Stormsfury]

Sorry Mike...I was going by a hurricane track chart book I recieved as a gift from an NHC forecaster in 1981....it has every chart from 1871 to 1980 (I've added the years since).

I'm sure the HURDAT re-analysis project will include some more surprises.....including an increased intensity for the infamous Labor Day hurricane in 1935 (the current estimate of 140 kts @ 892 mb is ridiculously low in light of the extremely small diameter of the hurricane, along with verified accounts of the condition of many fatalities being very reminiscent of an airliner crash scene or aftermath of a violent tornado...dismembered and beheaded human remains). It's more likely sustained winds were 175-180 kts (200-210 mph)with gusts of 200 kts (230 mph) or more (similar to a F4 tornado).

No biggie, Perry. Actually, the post was more directed with this line from wxman57's post.

Also, from the 1800s through the 1960s, I'll bet many tropical storms went unnoticed.

And some of the speculations about the 1950's and 1960's. I'm not sure about the Labor Day Storm being sustained 175-180 kts, but at the same time, it wouldn't surprise me either, especially with the devastation left behind and even causing the sand to generate sparks from the sandblast. I'm thinking 165 kts-170 kts sustained with gusts to 190 kts, but that's JMO. Anyways, Perry, another great read from you. Keep them coming.

SF

[JetMaxx]

Thanks Mike...
How I estimated sustained winds of 175 kts in the Labor Day hurricane was by comparing other extremely small but intense hurricanes and extrapolating the central pressure down to 892 mb...intense hurricanes similar in size to the 1935 hurricane.

Andrew had sustained winds of 145-150 kts @ 922 mb....which extrapolates to 170-175 kts at
892 mb. Iris was also extremely small in diameter....even smaller than Andrew (just as the Labor Day hurricane was) and had sustained winds of 125 kts @ 950 mb. Extrapolating to 892 mb gives an estimated sustained wind speed of 175-180 kts.

The extreme wind damage and appalling condition of many of the fatalities lends credence to wind speeds in excess of 175 kts (200 mph) with peak gusts of 200 kts (230 mph) or more.

Structural engineers at the time also estimated peak gusts between 200-250 mph based on damage they observed.

[Amanzi]

Thanks for the informative posts Perry! I realy do learn a lot from them... Keep them coming

[Stormsfury]

Thanks Mike...
How I estimated sustained winds of 175 kts in the Labor Day hurricane was by comparing other extremely small but intense hurricanes and extrapolating the central pressure down to 892 mb...intense hurricanes similar in size to the 1935 hurricane.

Andrew had sustained winds of 145-150 kts @ 922 mb....which extrapolates to 170-175 kts at
892 mb. Iris was also extremely small in diameter....even smaller than Andrew (just as the Labor Day hurricane was) and had sustained winds of 125 kts @ 950 mb. Extrapolating to 892 mb gives an estimated sustained wind speed of 175-180 kts.

The extreme wind damage and appalling condition of many of the fatalities lends credence to wind speeds in excess of 175 kts (200 mph) with peak gusts of 200 kts (230 mph) or more.

Structural engineers at the time also estimated peak gusts between 200-250 mph based on damage they observed.

Very interesting extrapolation methods, Perry. Very informative as always as well. My numbers could definitely be on the low side especially based on reasons I gave above. Part of my reasoning for the 165 kt-170 kt sustained was simply I've never seen an Atlantic TC exceed 165 kts. I think the world record is 185 kts in the WPAC. (Allen, Camille). Mitch was 160 kts. You and I both simply agree that the Labor Day storm was much stronger than the 140 kts, that's a given. Both you and I are much awaiting the 1910-1930's reanalysis. (I will get an email notification when the reanalysis of these years are complete).

Here's an unrevised list of Atlantic Storms by strength of winds.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/Storm_page ... TLwind.dat

Looks like 180 kts is the world record. Even Typhoon Tip with the 870 mb pressure was analyzed with 165 kts, well short of the 180 kts, A lot of that I thoroughly believe because of the massive amount of real estate (over 1100 MILES across for the storm). Now notice both of those were over 40 years ago, and the standard of winds may have been slightly overestimated ... maybe.

Supertyphoon #22 had 180 kt winds in the WPAC in 1955
Supertyphoon #23 had 180 kt winds in the WPAC in 1961

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.dat

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/w_p ... /track.dat

If the Labor Day storm is indeed reanalyzed over 165 kts, it'll be the strongest ATL hurricane of record sustained wind wise.

SF

[stormchazer]

Thanks Perry...Climatology is a big factor especially in the Tropics.

[capecodder]

Perry, you incredible statistical knowledge, leaves me feeling like I'm not running on on a fully charged battery. (Maybe it's called getting old)

Thanks for a truly informative post.

[JetMaxx]

Mike, the reason there's never been an Atlantic hurricane with sustained winds over 165 kts (190 mph) are the only two other hurricanes in the same intensity range as the Labor Day hurricane were Allen (899 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb)...both large hurricanes.

Camille had sustained winds (165 kts) as strong as Allen and stronger than Gilbert....even though the central pressure was higher (905 mb) -- because Camille was much smaller and more compact than Gilbert. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane was as intense as Gilbert....and much smaller even than Camille.

The extremely small diameter of the Labor Day hurricane means sustained winds were likely much stronger than in Gilbert....due to a much tighter pressure gradient. Hurricane force winds in the Labor Day hurricane only extended 15-20 miles from the center....and the eye was only estimated to have been 7 or 8 miles across at time of landfall on the Florida Keys.

[Stormsfury]

Mike, the reason there's never been an Atlantic hurricane with sustained winds over 165 kts (190 mph) are the only two other hurricanes in the same intensity range as the Labor Day hurricane were Allen (899 mb) and Gilbert (888 mb)...both large hurricanes.

Camille had sustained winds (165 kts) as strong as Allen and stronger than Gilbert....even though the central pressure was higher (905 mb) -- because Camille was much smaller and more compact than Gilbert. The 1935 Labor Day hurricane was as intense as Gilbert....and much smaller even than Camille.

The extremely small diameter of the Labor Day hurricane means sustained winds were likely much stronger than in Gilbert....due to a much tighter pressure gradient. Hurricane force winds in the Labor Day hurricane only extended 15-20 miles from the center....and the eye was only estimated to have been 7 or 8 miles across at time of landfall on the Florida Keys.

I definitely see your point and can't agree more. Same thing with Typhoon Tip in 1979 in the WPAC being 1100 miles across with the tropical storm force winds and the 870 mb pressure. Yet, the sustained winds peaked at 165 kts.

Tighter storms are much more concentrated in power, like Andrew, and Iris and The Labor Day Hurricane. I just don't think the reanalysis project will put the Labor Day Hurricane stronger than 165 kts. But again, very compelling evidence suggests that the possibility exists you are indeed right with the your winds.

* SF impatiently awaiting the reanalysis of the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane *

[JetMaxx]

In 1988 I wrote the National Hurricane Center asking their opinion of the Labor Day hurricane's sustained winds compared to Gilbert, in light of the size difference between the two hurricanes....

The reply I recieved was from hurricane specialist Robert Case...and in his opinion, the maximum sustained winds in the 1935 Labor Day hurricane were 175-180 kts (200-210 mph). John Hope also gave me a very similar personal estimate od the Labor Day hurricane's intensity (210 mph) a couple years later when I met him at a hurricane conference at Kennesaw State University here in metro Atlanta.

The most compelling evidence that the 1935 hurricane was so intense was the condition of bodies found after the hurricane's passage....John Hope said it was like the aftermath of an airliner crash ("body parts scattered about; dead bodies missing limbs and heads; even bodies found "sandblasted" to death...nothing but skeletons with leather belts and shoes...all other clothing and skin gone" :o :o

[Stormsfury]

In 1988 I wrote the National Hurricane Center asking their opinion of the Labor Day hurricane's sustained winds compared to Gilbert, in light of the size difference between the two hurricanes....

The reply I recieved was from hurricane specialist Robert Case...and in his opinion, the maximum sustained winds in the 1935 Labor Day hurricane were 175-180 kts (200-210 mph). John Hope also gave me a very similar personal estimate od the Labor Day hurricane's intensity (210 mph) a couple years later when I met him at a hurricane conference at Kennesaw State University here in metro Atlanta.

The most compelling evidence that the 1935 hurricane was so intense was the condition of bodies found after the hurricane's passage....John Hope said it was like the aftermath of an airliner crash ("body parts scattered about; dead bodies missing limbs and heads; even bodies found "sandblasted" to death...nothing but skeletons with leather belts and shoes...all other clothing and skin gone" :o :o

I remember seeing something about the "sandblasted" and remember that the winds were so intense that the sand actually produces sparks with the force of the wind. If AOML/HRD reanalyzes the LBH to those winds, it rewrites every history book not to mention, throw out the world record 231 mph wind gust on Mt. Washington, NH.

The photos and video I saw of the aftermath of the LBH was downright frightening. I have no doubts that winds did exceed 200 mph in the LBH, but were they sustained or gusts is my question. I wish I had more data to see to work with. Like I said before, if the sustained winds are reanalyzed over 200 mph (175 kts), I really won't be surprised.

SF