ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Wow, the Australian model shows a significant high holding this week. Any one know its resolution?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... ld&tim=096

[SapphireSea]

Is there anything that could prevent a poleward north move, or is north movement at some point a given?

A given. Tropical cyclones, especially stacked high Cat types will move poleward as soon as the atmosphere gives it a crease or wide open door.

Something like this. But actually it's more about the mean deep steering flow. Low level winds may be E at 20kt. Upper level can be from the SE or even SW. Overall a storm will then head NNW to N of deep or W to WnW if shallow.

[sponger]

Good analysis!! I agree with this.

I know it's the NAM, but that's exactly what it shows on the 18z run.

The NAM has shown some unique tracks with this storm,but I have been watching it for days and it really hasn't performed all that poorly. It showed the SW movement fairly well. Here is the 0Z run of the NAM from September 29th showing the SW dip prior to it occurring and showing Matthew moving further SW then a lot of the models.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2016092900&fh=-21&xpos=0&ypos=0

That actually was quite good! Thanks for showing.

[tgenius]

Well for what it's worth, the local news in Miami (Channel 10) is basically writing off the storm for down here, which given all the models I guess makes sense. We may get a little wind and some rain (if that) but otherwise not too much.

[Alyono]

Well, I don't know the answer to that question, but let's say if it doesn't move north then that would mean the models busted on this in a way that hasn't been seen in many many years.

wouldn't be any worse than the Joaquin megabust from last year when the models had it moving north and it moved southwest into the Bahamas

[wxman57]

I wish I had a dollar every time someone has said north turn is started. I would be wealthy. When it does turn we will know. It will be more than 1 frame.it's north, now east, then south and west again. The dang storm is going in Louis. No change in direction has persisted to say going north now. Watch for persistence and watch the venture storm otherwise you are watching the eye making loops.

Amen!! I too have had enough of my fill of "the north turn has started" This storm has been l.p.moving W-NW to NW all day long albeit.creeping slowly. Then, we have had these stalls in between.

That IS the north turn. A turn starts by the storm moving north of west. It wasn't expected to take a 90-deg right turn. The turn is gradual, and it started 24 hours ago. Looks like it's completing a little loop and is heading back northward. It's right on-track to pass near western Haiti or between Haiti & Jamaica tomorrow.

[Evenstar]

Stubborn Matthew still wants to rack up longitude...still think this stands a decent chance to shoot the uprights (between Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula)..another thing of note..once again arc clouds could be seen today firing out the western side of the storm. that would seem to imply dry air remains out that way and while it doesn't seem to have inhibited the storm that possibility remains. conversely the eastern side remains juicy and while the convective goiter has shrank from last night's enormous size it remains very much intact. it looks to be an issue not only for Haiti but at least western portions of the DR as well...it may actually expand eastward thanks to orographic enhancement. a very dangerous situation for Hispaniola even east of the threat of high sustained winds.

I'm fairly confident this is the first time in human history that the words "convective" and "goiter" have been used together in the same sentence.

I've often thought I should start keeping a journal of the most memorable and/or funniest moments on Storm2k. Convective goiter would go in the Storm2k terminology index under the heading: Weather Witticisms

[TJRE]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

click thru all the layers ...all of them have some western steering tilt... cept the top of scale 200-700mb
may not mean much, but ATM it makes me wonder!

[p1nheadlarry]

If it ends moving much more slowly into the Bahamas out of the Caribbean, one would think the ridge would have even more of an opportunity to expand west and southward since right now the models have Matthew west of the ridge center around the time the ridge tries to build back west. So that could mean more of a NW or even WNW turn in the Bahamas if that would occur.

Good analysis!! I agree with this.

I know it's the NAM, but that's exactly what it shows on the 18z run.

Poor NAM. It wants hurricane season to be over and winter/spring to start so it stops being made fun of.

[Aric Dunn]

I wish I had a dollar every time someone has said north turn is started. I would be wealthy. When it does turn we will know. It will be more than 1 frame.it's north, now east, then south and west again. The dang storm is going in Louis. No change in direction has persisted to say going north now. Watch for persistence and watch the venture storm otherwise you are watching the eye making loops.

Amen!! I too have had enough of my fill of "the north turn has started" This storm has been l.p.moving W-NW to NW all day long albeit.creeping slowly. Then, we have had these stalls in between.

That IS the north turn. A turn starts by the storm moving north of west. It wasn't expected to take a 90-deg right turn. The turn is gradual, and it started 24 hours ago. Looks like it's completing a little loop and is heading back northward. It's right on-track to pass near western Haiti or between Haiti & Jamaica tomorrow.

actually for 3 days it showed a right turn with no gradual.. so thats not correct. this gradual back and forth turn was not forecast. ..

it has been consistently behind every forecast model from every initialization.. lol

you cant call that "on track" when each and every time they have to adjust for being off..

[chaser1]

Wow, the Australian model shows a significant high holding this week. Any one know its resolution?

http://www.metvuw.com/forecast/forecast ... ld&tim=096

Okay, now that chart simply looks like they took it and used it as a shield for a round of "Paintball - Battle to the End" lol

[Ken711]

Is there anything that could prevent a poleward north move, or is north movement at some point a given?

A given. Tropical cyclones, especially stacked high Cat types will move poleward as soon as the atmosphere gives it a crease or wide open door.

Thanks

[robbielyn]

look at matt now. I think upwelling beginning to affect it the whole storm looks squished.

[blp]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom=&time=

click thru all the layers ...all of them have some western steering tilt... cept the top of scale 200-700mb
may not mean much, but ATM it makes me wonder!

Between 2100 and 0000 UTC the high has retreated slightly with primary steering now indicating a more NNW movement versus NW which was present on 2100. Lets see if the high continues to retreet further. If and when it resumes motion it would be more NNW or NW than N. I know these charts are laggards and can change in an instant but we are in the nowcasting stage.

[SunnyThoughts]

That "appendage" to the East of Matthew keeps expanding. Does anyone think it can expand and wrap all the way around the storm? I wish it would either do that or dissipate, its starting to get on my last nerve.

[SouthFLTropics]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=dlm5&zoom=&time=

click thru all the layers ...all of them have some western steering tilt... cept the top of scale 200-700mb
may not mean much, but ATM it makes me wonder!

Between 2100 and 0000 UTC the high has retreated slightly with primary steering now indicating a more NNW movement versus NW which was present on 2100. Lets see if the high continues to retreet further. If and when it resumes motion it would be more NNW or NW than N. I know these charts are laggards and can change in an instant but we are in the nowcasting stage.

Well since we are in nowcasting mode at least we have satellite tonight. Last night when the sat went down I was picturing Johnny from the movie Airplane when he pulled the plug on the runway lights.

[SouthFLTropics]

The blob east of Matthew has reared its ugly head again tonight. I've never seen such a feature persist like that ever before.

[Emmett_Brown]

Well, the debate about direction is important to the future path. BUT... so is the current speed. The official track says Matt should be at 15.4N 74.9W a mere 4.5 hours from now; almost a full degree due north of it's current position. Its current slow movement means this probably wont happen, and that has to have some track impacts in the long range. I can't even guess what the affects will be, but there should be some changes in future model runs, since the other upper air features are still moving.

[sunnyday]

Forgive me for asking, but does anyone have any clear idea if or when Matthew might make landfall in the US? I would appreciate some educated guesses....

[GCANE]

Concerning the mysterious Blob, I visited the AMSU soundings archive page at CIMSS located here:
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... 1614L.html

I noticed that there is a very healthy and relatively low-altitude cold core located right in the middle between Matthew's warm core and the center of the Blob's convection.

Looking thru multiple times, it is always in the exact middle.

How it got there, why it persists, how does that equate in the dynamics of the Blob, I don't know.

Just another piece in the puzzle to ponder.