ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sma10]

Well for what it's worth, the local news in Miami (Channel 10) is basically writing off the storm for down here, which given all the models I guess makes sense. We may get a little wind and some rain (if that) but otherwise not too much.

I say this with love, but the last place you want to go for accurate forecasts is local TV. I gave that up back in the 90s.

[SFLcane]

I think something that has not been talked about is whst structural this hurricane will be once crossing those big mountains in Cuba. Core may very well expand.

[toad strangler]

I agree with your timing Aric but I'm not so sure about the 200 miles further west...

More like 50 miles W and WELL within the 3 day cone.

so worked it out best I could find.. looks like 100 miles..

Take that map by scale, the distance Matthew went West of forecast points is roughly half the width of the Florida peninsula. Probably about 50 miles. I would say we are just splitting hairs, but we aren't when it comes to talking about TC movement.

[Aric Dunn]

Aric so exactly what are you implying?

just that the models have been constantly off and cannot be taken seriously in even the short term right now beyond a general sense. models have been unable to reconcile synoptic setup or evolution or get a 6 hour movement or intensity on a coherent basis.. lol

[otowntiger]

Stubborn Matthew still wants to rack up longitude...still think this stands a decent chance to shoot the uprights (between Jamaica and the Tiburon peninsula)..another thing of note..once again arc clouds could be seen today firing out the western side of the storm. that would seem to imply dry air remains out that way and while it doesn't seem to have inhibited the storm that possibility remains. conversely the eastern side remains juicy and while the convective goiter has shrank from last night's enormous size it remains very much intact. it looks to be an issue not only for Haiti but at least western portions of the DR as well...it may actually expand eastward thanks to orographic enhancement. a very dangerous situation for Hispaniola even east of the threat of high sustained winds.

I'm fairly confident this is the first time in human history that the words "convective" and "goiter" have been used together in the same sentence.

I've often thought I should start keeping a journal of the most memorable and/or funniest moments on Storm2k. Convective goiter would go in the Storm2k terminology index under the heading: Weather Witticisms

I couldn't figure out what to call so it was time to coin a new phrase. I know it's impolite to stare...but you just can't help it (at least I can't)...it's a fascinating oddity.

Before I read your post I was thinking it was like a 'goiter' too.

[gatorcane]

While Matthew has stalled, the players that would influence his track once he eventually gets to the Bahamas are definitely on the move. That stalled cutoff low that was over Kentucky for days last week is filling in and on the way out, the big question is how fast does it get out of the picture and where will Matthew be?

[WeatherEmperor]

Well for what it's worth, the local news in Miami (Channel 10) is basically writing off the storm for down here, which given all the models I guess makes sense. We may get a little wind and some rain (if that) but otherwise not too much.

I say this with love, but the last place you want to go for accurate forecasts is local TV. I gave that up back in the 90s.

Former NHC director Max Mayfield is part of the hurricane coverage team for Channel 10 so they pretty much are the real deal.


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[Ken711]

I think something that has not been talked about is whst structural this hurricane will be once crossing those big mountains in Cuba. Core may very well expand.

Would the wind field increase and the intensity decrease?

[toad strangler]

Well for what it's worth, the local news in Miami (Channel 10) is basically writing off the storm for down here, which given all the models I guess makes sense. We may get a little wind and some rain (if that) but otherwise not too much.

I say this with love, but the last place you want to go for accurate forecasts is local TV. I gave that up back in the 90s.

Former NHC director Max Mayfield is part of the hurricane coverage team for Channel 10 so they pretty much are the real deal.

The real deal and writing off this kind of stalled system? LOL ... I mean they might be 100% correct in the end. But, no real deal Met outfit is writing anything off with the current status..

[SFLcane]

Aric But at the end of the day, we can look at all of these things, but a hurricane will do what it wants to do. Tropical systems are just so unique.

[SFLcane]

Last 5 frames on satellite imagery has the storm east of 75W. Maybe new motion has begun. Actually was forecast to do anyway.

[SouthFLTropics]

While Matthew has stalled, the players that would influence his track once he eventually gets to the Bahamas are definitely on the move. That stalled cutoff low that was over Kentucky for days last week is filling in and on the way out, the big question is how fast does it get out of the picture and where will Matthew be?

The potential ramifications of this evidence cannot be understated. The delay out of the Caribbean has big implications on the future track.

[WeatherEmperor]

I say this with love, but the last place you want to go for accurate forecasts is local TV. I gave that up back in the 90s.

Former NHC director Max Mayfield is part of the hurricane coverage team for Channel 10 so they pretty much are the real deal.

The real deal and writing off this kind of stalled system? LOL ... I mean they might be 100% correct in the end. But, no real deal Met outfit is writing anything off with the current status..

You need to get your facts straight. They never wrote it off. They simply said that a direct landfall is highly unlikely and chances of significant impacts are going down.


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[SapphireSea]

I think something that has not been talked about is whst structural this hurricane will be once crossing those big mountains in Cuba. Core may very well expand.

Would the wind field increase and the intensity decrease?

It would expand some yes. However the winds overall will weaken as gradient slackens some. So for Florida, if it retains Cat 4-5 with tight core, 200 Miles East would translate to low POP due to subsidence and mild breeze. Heat Index probobly in 100-110s. If it becomes ragged and expands then 200 Miles East could mean 30kt winds, and much more rain. Once it gains latitude it depends on environment around, if it becomes shared and assymetric OBX can easily get Hur Winds if the approch is within 150 miles. But this is all just conjecture. Have to see what Matt does nearer to cuba first.

[toad strangler]

Former NHC director Max Mayfield is part of the hurricane coverage team for Channel 10 so they pretty much are the real deal.

The real deal and writing off this kind of stalled system? LOL ... I mean they might be 100% correct in the end. But, no real deal Met outfit is writing anything off with the current status..

You need to get your facts straight. They never wrote it off. They simply said that a direct landfall is highly unlikely and chances of significant impacts are going down.


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YOU said "basically wrote it off" So, do tell me more about getting facts straight.

[WeatherEmperor]

The real deal and writing off this kind of stalled system? LOL ... I mean they might be 100% correct in the end. But, no real deal Met outfit is writing anything off with the current status..

You need to get your facts straight. They never wrote it off. They simply said that a direct landfall is highly unlikely and chances of significant impacts are going down.


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YOU said "basically wrote it off" So, do tell me more about getting facts straight.

The poster that I quoted said that not me............


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[toad strangler]

You need to get your facts straight. They never wrote it off. They simply said that a direct landfall is highly unlikely and chances of significant impacts are going down.


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

YOU said "basically wrote it off" So, do tell me more about getting facts straight.

The poster that I quoted said that not me............


Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk

Gotcha, my bad

[sma10]

Well for what it's worth, the local news in Miami (Channel 10) is basically writing off the storm for down here, which given all the models I guess makes sense. We may get a little wind and some rain (if that) but otherwise not too much.

I say this with love, but the last place you want to go for accurate forecasts is local TV. I gave that up back in the 90s.

Former NHC director Max Mayfield is part of the hurricane coverage team for Channel 10 so they pretty much are the real deal

[tgenius]

By writing off obviously that it won't be a direct hit, not that it wasn't coming near the coast. Of course it can change, just what it was shown.

[SouthernBreeze]

Shows Matt barely grazing E tip of Cuba so could miss the high mountains there
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/coamps_docs/ ... mdltrk.gif

*although some of them prob not the best of models