ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[chaser1]

What is the suspected strength at that point?

Painfully strong - 929mb. (and thats likely with a stronger gradient further north too)

Okay, then how is it the NHC predicts this will dwindle down to below major status by the time it comes up?

I can't answer that but this hurricane will also make a close call to Martha's Vineyard Mass. area. As someone already aluded, the storm then curls back west and into Maine but following whatever impacts along the Outer Banks, it appears to me that the storm will have begun undergoing transition and becoming baroclinic

[WHYB630]

the trough and matt work together to bring heavy rainfall in upstate NY
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_25.png

[chaser1]

Transition from tropical to non-tropical may continue to maintain low pressures, however the wind field will likely become far more broad and thus winds should be lower with the gradient being more spread out - hopefully. As I see it play out, E. North Carolina will have to keep their heads on a swivel for a potentially dangerous hurricane approaching by next weekend (darn, no chase contacts up there for me lol!)

[Lifeless]

Met model path visualised

[chaser1]

Met model path visualised

Just to clarify, this is the UK Met office model, correct?

[Lifeless]

Met model path visualised

-snip-

Just to clarify, this is the UK Met office model, correct?

Yes sorry, I did the coordinates based on the post by Alyono on the previous page.

[PTrackerLA]

UKMET looks very similar to 00z GFS track, just slightly west and a bit slower

[Hurricaneman]

about 30 or so miles west of the GFS so not really much difference

[chaser1]

I matched up when the UK would be exiting the Northernmost Bahamas (27.0 & 76.4) and also when the GFS run depicts Matthew being at that same spot. GFS places Matthew at that point in 84 hr.'s, and the UK in 96 hr.'s. Either way, not crazy far off and both tracks quite similar.

[chaser1]

Okay, well this is a bit interesting and something that I think i'll take a look at a bit more closely as compared to tonights GFS 0Z run. As Alonyo mentioned a short while ago regarding the large trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest and Upper Plains, here is how the NAM projects this trough at 48 hours (click link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

Now, fast forward to 72 hr.'s. What was a negativly tilted trough axis, has very quickly turned into a positive tilted trough axis (link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

The mid level low over Montana seems to pull up and slowly NE. Meanwhile, the trough simply becomes broader and covering the western 2/3's of the CONUS, as new energy spills into the trough from the Pacific. Meanwhile it appears to me that increased ridging builds in from the W. Atlantic and also to the north of Matthew at this point. One can see the storm seemingly tracking along the N. Coast of Cuba and seemingly moving NW to a point over W. Andros Island in 84 hours and a much more threatening trajectory for S. Florida than the GFS or UK model. Oh, and before some begin throwing popcorn at their computer monitors, this has less to do with buying into a NAM hurricane forecast, as simply stating the fluid and evolving conditions that might well affect the storms forward motion.

[Joe Snow]

It's my understanding that the latest model data is being collected with new high tech weather ballons

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

[SunnyThoughts]

Canadian swipes the outerbanks http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... s=0&ypos=0

[SouthFLTropics]

Okay, well this is a bit interesting and something that I think i'll take a look at a bit more closely as compared to tonights GFS 0Z run. As Alonyo mentioned a short while ago regarding the large trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest and Upper Plains, here is how the NAM projects this trough at 48 hours (click link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

Now, fast forward to 72 hr.'s. What was a negativly tilted trough axis, has very quickly turned into a positive tilted trough axis (link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

The mid level low over Montana seems to pull up and slowly NE. Meanwhile, the trough simply becomes broader and covering the western 2/3's of the CONUS, as new energy spills into the trough from the Pacific. Meanwhile it appears to me that increased ridging builds in from the W. Atlantic and also to the north of Matthew at this point. One can see the storm seemingly tracking along the N. Coast of Cuba and seemingly moving NW to a point over W. Andros Island in 84 hours and a much more threatening trajectory for S. Florida than the GFS or UK model. Oh, and before some begin throwing popcorn at their computer monitors, this has less to do with buying into a NAM hurricane forecast, as simply stating the fluid and evolving conditions that might well affect the storms forward motion.

I noticed this as well...the NAM gets no love regarding tropical systems but it is decent at picking up the overall synoptic pattern across North America.

[SouthFLTropics]

I believe that's today's 12z UKMET. The 00z run takes it further off of Florida.

[txwatcher91]

With the GFS, UKMET, GEFS members and the Euro all bringing Matthew over or near the Outer Banks of NC we finally have a better consensus. Hopefully tonight's Euro will help in solving this.

[chaser1]

I'm not sure what exactly you're trying to point out wiht this map? It's obviously a 500mb UK map at 120hr. The following 0Z UK modal data was posted a short while ago

UKMET says...

MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 03.10.2016

HURRICANE MATTHEW ANALYSED POSITION : 14.4N 74.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL142016

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 03.10.2016 0 14.4N 74.8W 980 59
1200UTC 03.10.2016 12 15.3N 74.6W 976 59
0000UTC 04.10.2016 24 16.9N 74.3W 975 61
1200UTC 04.10.2016 36 18.9N 74.0W 975 61
0000UTC 05.10.2016 48 20.9N 74.2W 974 64
1200UTC 05.10.2016 60 22.4N 74.8W 975 61
0000UTC 06.10.2016 72 23.9N 75.2W 973 61
1200UTC 06.10.2016 84 25.3N 75.9W 968 67
0000UTC 07.10.2016 96 27.0N 76.4W 959 76
1200UTC 07.10.2016 108 28.8N 77.1W 947 75
0000UTC 08.10.2016 120 30.7N 78.0W 945 77
1200UTC 08.10.2016 132 32.6N 78.0W 946 74
0000UTC 09.10.2016 144 35.1N 76.6W 955 68

Based on the data above, Matthew will be approx. 200 miles ENE of Jacksonville Fl. The map you are displaying is not an indication of the storm itself, but I am curious what this mid level vorticity is related too and where did it come from???

[Bocadude85]

Okay, well this is a bit interesting and something that I think i'll take a look at a bit more closely as compared to tonights GFS 0Z run. As Alonyo mentioned a short while ago regarding the large trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest and Upper Plains, here is how the NAM projects this trough at 48 hours (click link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

Now, fast forward to 72 hr.'s. What was a negativly tilted trough axis, has very quickly turned into a positive tilted trough axis (link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

The mid level low over Montana seems to pull up and slowly NE. Meanwhile, the trough simply becomes broader and covering the western 2/3's of the CONUS, as new energy spills into the trough from the Pacific. Meanwhile it appears to me that increased ridging builds in from the W. Atlantic and also to the north of Matthew at this point. One can see the storm seemingly tracking along the N. Coast of Cuba and seemingly moving NW to a point over W. Andros Island in 84 hours and a much more threatening trajectory for S. Florida than the GFS or UK model. Oh, and before some begin throwing popcorn at their computer monitors, this has less to do with buying into a NAM hurricane forecast, as simply stating the fluid and evolving conditions that might well affect the storms forward motion.

I noticed this as well...the NAM gets no love regarding tropical systems but it is decent at picking up the overall synoptic pattern across North America.

The NAM and GFS really aren't all that far apart at 84 hours on their 0z run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Okay, well this is a bit interesting and something that I think i'll take a look at a bit more closely as compared to tonights GFS 0Z run. As Alonyo mentioned a short while ago regarding the large trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest and Upper Plains, here is how the NAM projects this trough at 48 hours (click link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

Now, fast forward to 72 hr.'s. What was a negativly tilted trough axis, has very quickly turned into a positive tilted trough axis (link: http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... ypos=210.4 )

The mid level low over Montana seems to pull up and slowly NE. Meanwhile, the trough simply becomes broader and covering the western 2/3's of the CONUS, as new energy spills into the trough from the Pacific. Meanwhile it appears to me that increased ridging builds in from the W. Atlantic and also to the north of Matthew at this point. One can see the storm seemingly tracking along the N. Coast of Cuba and seemingly moving NW to a point over W. Andros Island in 84 hours and a much more threatening trajectory for S. Florida than the GFS or UK model. Oh, and before some begin throwing popcorn at their computer monitors, this has less to do with buying into a NAM hurricane forecast, as simply stating the fluid and evolving conditions that might well affect the storms forward motion.

I noticed this as well...the NAM gets no love regarding tropical systems but it is decent at picking up the overall synoptic pattern across North America.

The NAM and GFS really aren't all that far apart at 84 hours on their 0z run.

Mileage wise no...but forward motion and angle of approach is huge.

[PTrackerLA]

00z GFS Ensembles courtesy of Ryan Maue. Notable shift west towards NC compared to 12z