ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Tiny eye collapsing again with another weak, possible, outer eyewall around it. Probably another attempted ERC that will fail.

[SouthernBreeze]

looking pretty ragged at the moment - almost like the E blob is trying to take over

[TimeZone]

Very unimpressive looking storm from a major hurricane looking point of view. Matthew certainly appears to have peaed. Wouldn't be shocked to see little Matthew dip below Major Hurricane strength at this rate.

[HurricaneRyan]

Should we be frustrated at this point?

[wxmann_91]

With the downsloping air off of the Jamaican mountains in the W Quad, and the subsidence induced by the megablob to the east, I wouldn't be surprised if this ERC struggles to complete. By that, I mean the outer eyewall struggles to: 1) fully consolidate, 2) choke off in the inner eyewall, and then 3) subsequently contract and stabilize.

[NWFL56]

:uarrow: Wow. So cool.

Very cool. Have never seen that before.

[Hammy]

Eye starting to show up on Jamaica radar, complete with the 'moat' outside the eyewall that's typical of ERCs.

[NDG]

Yeap, eye is finally getting within radar range.

[NDG]

Wow, this is like winning the lottery, tiny eye of Matthew went right over the buoy!!!!!
Pressure of 943.8mb!!!!!!!


Conditions at 42058 as of
(1:50 am EST)
0650 GMT on 10/03/2016:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone: Select
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 260 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.5 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 19.0 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 10 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 7.2 sec
5-day plot - Mean Wave Direction Mean Wave Direction (MWD): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 27.87 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): -0.85 in ( Falling Rapidly )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 80.4 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 79.3 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 84.9 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 11.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 11.7 kts

[NDG]

You don't see this every day by buoy.



http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42058

[SouthernBreeze]

Haiti really beginning to feel the "blob" in last few Sat images

[NDG]

Haiti really beginning to feel the "blob" in last few Sat images

Yes, it could be catastrophic for all of Hispaniola.

[SouthernBreeze]

As ragged as Matt looks, still 130mph @5AM!

[caneman]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but the NHC has favored the right side of model consensus and for the last few days has had to adjust westward by about 25 mIles a day. If that trend continues, you'll have a landfalling system in S.E. Florida.

[NDG]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but the NHC has favored the right side of model consensus and for the last few days has had to adjust westward by about 25 mIles a day. If that trend continues, you'll have a landfalling system in S.E. Florida.

I wouldn't put SE making landfall but it could get fairly closer if trends continue, bigger threat is for central FL, IMO.

[caneman]

Yes, meant central but either I believe are still in play. Let's see what next GFS does. Will be interesting to see if the Australian model ends up being right.

[GCANE]

Break-off Blob headed to Haiti & DR.
From what I remember from a previuous Blob in Florida, there could be embedded high-helicity winds and a possibility of tornadoes.
I hope it collapses before landfall.

[jlauderdal]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong but the NHC has favored the right side of model consensus and for the last few days has had to adjust westward by about 25 mIles a day. If that trend continues, you'll have a landfalling system in S.E. Florida.

they had to come west a bit..anything else would have been silly...the trend is west today and its going to be real close..there is no way we can discount a landfall in se florida even though there is no model support at this time..lets see what happens after it gets beyond the WINDWARD(not mona as i erred yesterday, thanks AJC3)...hopefully land interaction knocks it down but the environment looks favorable in the Bahamas

btw, you want to start looking at Florida AFD's...Melbourne tends go more in depth than Miami

[Blinhart]

A westward the models will go, I knew there was no way this was gonna go due North and then NNE.

[GCANE]

The vort will likely take a random jog when it passes over Cuba.
When it enters the water into the Bahamas, the initial trajectory could be a little more random than what is currently being forecasted.
Also, I think it'll take a bigger hit over Cuba and may be weaker than anticipated coming back into the water.
I expect a significant tilt in the vort column.