ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4941 Postby caneman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:23 am

NDG wrote:So far this is how models are performing on timing and track, no surprise the Euro is doing the best at day 4-5 range as JB mentioned yesterday on a tweet.
GFS is doing OK. CMC is doing almost as bad as the HWRF.
HWRF is messing up the TVCN consensus model big time.

Image


This large shift west for them would likely kill that margin of error their enjoying. Lots of wind shield wiper still going on let's see if this West trend continues. We're getting inside of 100 hours now so margin of error is getting thinner
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4942 Postby NDG » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:33 am

The reason why the Euro has shifted west, it has a stronger ridge over the NE US with the west coast trough staying there longer than earlier forecasted, unfortunately Euro is most times the King when it comes to day 5 sypnotic forecast.

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4943 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:42 am

:uarrow: Unfortunately the stronger ridging over the NE U.S. the the Euro is depicting would make much more sense given the way the pattern has been all summer long with stronger ridging over the NE U.S.

It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows suite, especially what the 12z Euro shows later today.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4944 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:45 am

Not good folks not good...
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4945 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:46 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4946 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:47 am

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4947 Postby stormreader » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:55 am

SFLcane wrote:Not good folks not good...

That's was a big shift west. Doesn't seem likely at all that it would go back east. It's to be finally beginning to get a handle on the strength of the Atlantic Ridge. Could vey we'll be one more medium adjustment west by this time tomorrow.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4948 Postby stormreader » Mon Oct 03, 2016 4:59 am


Matter of fact the ensembles do seem to be weighted more left. Good chance more west shift coming as we finally get a handle on this.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4949 Postby Digital-TC-Chaser » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:03 am

stormreader wrote:

Matter of fact the ensembles do seem to be weighted more left. Good chance more west shift coming as we finally get a handle on this.





Image

Has been the same with the UKMET. You guys need to understand the ukmet co-ords posted by Alyono before and plotted are not a final product.
Last edited by Digital-TC-Chaser on Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:10 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4950 Postby stormreader » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:09 am

TheStormExpert wrote::uarrow: Unfortunately the stronger ridging over the NE U.S. the the Euro is depicting would make much more sense given the way the pattern has been all summer long with stronger ridging over the NE U.S.

It'll be interesting to see if the GFS follows suite, especially what the 12z Euro shows later today.

It's been the basic pattern and was forecast to be so when the models were out very long range days ago. But there were these "phantom lows" or ULL's that no one could really find with any certainty. you knew it was bad when meteorologists scratched their heads for any number of days speculating on if this or that was to be the source of the weakness to allow Mathew to escape out to sea. Meanwhile the overall pattern of strong ridging remained dominant. This is a case where old time meteorologists from 50 years ago would have done better with the forecast than our latest models. And don't rule out a northwest bend that takes Mathew right into the Keys before turning it north.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4951 Postby TheStormExpert » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:10 am

Another look at the 00z Euro track with it's Ensembles and the NHC track plotted. :eek:

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4952 Postby SouthernBreeze » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:12 am

that UKMET not looking good for SC either :eek:
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4953 Postby FLpanhandle91 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:16 am

GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4954 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:22 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.


And about 20 miles further west in NW Bahamas...overall it held serve from 00z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4955 Postby Kingarabian » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:25 am

So now the GFS will shift east and the Euro will shift west. Sigh.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4956 Postby stormreader » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:27 am

DESTRUCTION5 wrote:
FLpanhandle91 wrote:GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.


And about 20 miles further west in NW Bahamas...overall it held serve from 00z.

Yeah, but now that we're coming into the 4-5 day window it will probably follow the lead of the Euro. Give it another 24 hours or so, it will either match the Euro or even be slightly west of it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4957 Postby BobHarlem » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:27 am

Kingarabian wrote:So now the GFS will shift east and the Euro will shift west. Sigh.


The Euro is slower by about a day and feels the ridge more. 6z GFS is just shifting a tad east, eventually landfalls in Maine Sunday. The Euro's shift west is a lot more pronounced.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4958 Postby otowntiger » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:28 am

FLpanhandle91 wrote:GFS has shifted east this run. 20 to 30 miles east of previous run off the OBX area.

And there you have it. That's why one can't get too caught up in the westward shifts on one particular group of models when another does just opposite. So far I still don't see much reason to get too concerned she. The NHC still keeps it safely offshore. It's likely for a reason their track hasn't shifted much. If I'm wrong I will gladly admit it.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4959 Postby CDO62 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:34 am

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 16m16 minutes ago Pennsylvania, USA

disturbing euro ensemble has more members into FLA.Sensing ridge off east coast,as usual stronger.UKMET in over Carolinas
Tough days ahead

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/stat ... 9953469441
Last edited by CDO62 on Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:44 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#4960 Postby Nimbus » Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:40 am

Matthew seems to be behaving according to the NHC in the short run rolling north just east of the 75N longitude.

The 00Z GFDL, GFS, and HWRF all suggesting an OTS solution is still possible, the NHC official track shift east is comforting.

After reading the Storm2k posts concerning the Euro I guess I can wait till later today for consensus concerning Florida, but no doubt the mountainous peninsula areas on Haiti are going to get some massive upslope rain even if the core of Matthew passes offshore.

Anyone hear about a relief ship on the way?
Last edited by Nimbus on Mon Oct 03, 2016 5:41 am, edited 1 time in total.
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