ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

sunnyday · #4021 Postby **sunnyday** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:01 am

Some on the board are mentioning a possible SE Fl landfall, but the TV mets said this morning that Matthew will pass the coast around 200 miles to the east, leading to some tropical force winds. They have never mentioned a landfall this whole time...
What are we to believe?

#4022 Postby **SFLcane** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:01 am

57 might wanna take a look at the ECMWF ensembles this morning. disturbing amount of members have landfall in Florida now.

#4023 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:01 am

wxman57 wrote:
jhpigott wrote:NWS calling for "possible tropical storm conditions" Thursday and Friday in my locale (Juno Beach/Jupiter Inlet)

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... _JFUGD2aUk

That's "possible", but it's not currently predicted to occur. Looks like Matthew will track far enough east of southern Florida to keep TS winds offshore. NC could see 40-50 mph winds on Saturday, given the current forecast. Of course, a track closer to the NC coast during the turn could mean a lot higher winds there.

You seem be very conservative for FL, why is that, or you planning another vacation to FL this week? :wink:

SEASON_CANCELED · #4024 Postby **SEASON_CANCELED** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:04 am

Im not backing off on any southern florida landfall yet the reason being is the system has 5 days yet to creep west..tho the models will pick this up i wont have high confidence for another 48 hours.

5 days is ALOT of time for steer patterns to change.

#4025 Postby **NDG** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:05 am

Very cool to see how much the SSTs cool down underneath Matthew's core caused by upwelling.

nativefloridian · #4026 Postby **nativefloridian** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:10 am

NDG wrote:
wxman57 wrote:
jhpigott wrote:NWS calling for "possible tropical storm conditions" Thursday and Friday in my locale (Juno Beach/Jupiter Inlet)

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... _JFUGD2aUk

That's "possible", but it's not currently predicted to occur. Looks like Matthew will track far enough east of southern Florida to keep TS winds offshore. NC could see 40-50 mph winds on Saturday, given the current forecast. Of course, a track closer to the NC coast during the turn could mean a lot higher winds there.

You seem be very conservative for FL, why is that, or you planning another vacation to FL this week?

I believe he mentioned last week that he would be in Florida this week. But he can clarify

#4027 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:10 am

sunnyday wrote:Some on the board are mentioning a possible SE Fl landfall, but the TV mets said this morning that Matthew will pass the coast around 200 miles to the east, leading to some tropical force winds. They have never mentioned a landfall this whole time...
What are we to believe?

they are just regurgitating the nhc track which is a good idea for the general public..no reason to confuse the issue with a bunch of scenarios..they are being responsible and thats good.. there is plenty of time for the media to broadcast bad information, that will definitely verify..we could have an entire thread about that

#4028 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:11 am

Wow I agree the ECMWF ensemble run last night is an eye opener with many ensembles taking this right into SE Florida with some as far south as the middle Keys. Also several ensembles into the Treasure Coast. :eek:

GoneBabyGone · #4029 Postby **GoneBabyGone** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:13 am

I know the focus is on Jamaica/Haiti/Florida right now, and my thoughts go out to those residents and I hope the storm busts, but how are we looking in the Jersey Shore area? Too early to say?

#4030 Postby **tgenius** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:21 am

Now the question is, is the euro doing the windshield wiper effect. I'm not thrilled to see those models pointing to SFL, but my bigger concern is we are getting to the 4 day range, so time is going to start getting to the point where the forecast verifies at 3 days with better certainty. Not worried yet, but got one eye open to it..

stormchazer · #4031 Postby **stormchazer** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:22 am

For at least 3 days models have kept Matthew off the Florida coast. They have wavered east and west but stayed off the coast. Trend is our friend so watch for a trend, but no reason to get excited. Make preparations as you should do every hurricane season.

#4032 Postby **Fishing** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:22 am

GoneBabyGone wrote:I know the focus is on Jamaica/Haiti/Florida right now, and my thoughts go out to those residents and I hope the storm busts, but how are we looking in the Jersey Shore area? Too early to say?

Just hang here and you'll have an idea in a few days. All depends on how fast/slow two headed Matthew moves and the weather pattern that it'll encounter as it moves. So yes it's too soon. It's actually too soon for us in SC to really know.

#4033 Postby **jlauderdal** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:24 am

scroll down for bastardi viewing pleasure...every morning he updates...he loves the euro so concerned about a florida strike due to last euro run

http://www.weatherbell.com/

weathaguyry · #4034 Postby **weathaguyry** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:24 am

GoneBabyGone wrote:I know the focus is on Jamaica/Haiti/Florida right now, and my thoughts go out to those residents and I hope the storm busts, but how are we looking in the Jersey Shore area? Too early to say?

I'm here on Long Island, I think it's a bit too early, but if the trough is strong enough and negatively tilted, then it could lure Matt back over here sort of like a Sandy track, but the storm won't necessarily be as bad as Sandy. (Just my two cents)

dexterlabio · #4035 Postby **dexterlabio** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:26 am

I don't know if I should ask this on the other thread, but I'm wondering where the others are getting the ensemble plots for ECMWF and GFS? I can't find them in Levi Cowan's website.

EquusStorm · #4036 Postby **EquusStorm** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:26 am

There is of course a radar at Guantanamo Bay... will be interesting to see, for however long it stays up.

#4037 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:27 am

Had a chance to dig into the models a bit more. The GFS and Euro have some big differences after 2 or 3 days with two features.

#1 is the mid-level low over New York. GFS is slower and stronger creating a significant weakness that is probably allowing Matthew to move quicker than other models show.
#2 is the next vorticity max west of British Columbia. GFS has this become a significant piece of a southern trough while the Euro keeps it more zonal and the entire trough weaker.

ronjon · #4038 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:30 am

dexterlabio wrote:I don't know if I should ask this on the other thread, but I'm wondering where the others are getting the ensemble plots for ECMWF and GFS? I can't find them in Levi Cowan's website.

Go here and pull down the ensemble tab - has Euro, GFS, and GEM emsemble runs.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

LJFire1467 · #4039 Postby **LJFire1467** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:30 am

EquusStorm wrote:There is of course a radar at Guantanamo Bay... will be interesting to see, for however long it stays up.

I also have a Coast Guard shipmate there as well but not sure if he will have service when the storm hits.

#4040 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Mon Oct 03, 2016 7:31 am

Recon measured a closed eyewall of 16 nm and a central pressure of 940/941 mb in Matthew. Some slight strengthening compared to the previous flight.

ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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