ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[tolakram]

So far this is how models are performing on timing and track, no surprise the Euro is doing the best at day 4-5 range as JB mentioned yesterday on a tweet.
GFS is doing OK. CMC is doing almost as bad as the HWRF.
HWRF is messing up the TVCN consensus model big time.

[i mg]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/Mattmodels1_zpsybaimrmc.jpg[/img]

Why does the Euro line stop a day early (102 instead of 120)? GFS has been consistently way too fast so the error rate is not a surprise of only looking at the position.

[MGC]

It is difficult to bet against the EURO in the medium range. We shall see if the EURO nails another track that there is significant divergence from the GFS....MGC

[DESTRUCTION5]

So far this is how models are performing on timing and track, no surprise the Euro is doing the best at day 4-5 range as JB mentioned yesterday on a tweet.
GFS is doing OK. CMC is doing almost as bad as the HWRF.
HWRF is messing up the TVCN consensus model big time.

[i mg]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/Mattmodels1_zpsybaimrmc.jpg[/img]

Why does the Euro line stop early?

New HWRF will likely bring it back west a bit. Still east of the others though.

[ronjon]

Counted about 20 ECM ensemble tracks into the FL peninsula - yikes.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Counted about 20 ECM ensemble tracks into the FL peninsula - yikes.

Everything is still in the play...5 days is alot of time for things to chance

We are still oversaturated from Hermine in Tampa. Tho I would like a hurricane day, ide say keep it away.

[wzrgirl1]

I am confused. If everyone is now talking about how the models namely the Euro ensembles are shifting west with many of them going into Florida now, how come we are still out of the cone? I know the cone shifts take place every 6 hours with the updates so when were these models run?

[toad strangler]

I am confused. If everyone is now talking about how the models namely the Euro ensembles are shifting west with many of them going into Florida now, how come we are still out of the cone? I know the cone shifts take place every 6 hours with the updates so when were these models run?

The Euro alone is not enough to change the cone dramatically. And quite honestly, the 00z Euro as west has it has been in some time, was still well within the present cone.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782928868583809024

[FLLurker32]

I am confused. If everyone is now talking about how the models namely the Euro ensembles are shifting west with many of them going into Florida now, how come we are still out of the cone? I know the cone shifts take place every 6 hours with the updates so when were these models run?

The Euro alone is not enough to change the cone dramatically. And quite honestly, the 00z Euro as west has it has been in some time, was still well within the present cone.

Agreed. The current cone includes nearly the entire Atlantic coastal region of FL. It seems reasonable to me.

[Blown Away]

12z Guidance... Moving into shorter range and guidance still 200+ miles away from Florida...

[adam0983]

Does anyone think that the track at 11am will shift west based on latest Euro run.

[Digital-TC-Chaser]

solid on each run.
Some more entertainment as you guys 'put it'.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Does anyone think that the track at 11am will shift west based on latest Euro run.

No because they had Euro data prior to the 5am. Now if it and the GFS shifts again at 12z that would be a given.

[SFLcane]

Blown away- yea just saw that maybe the euro is another outlier like UK. Bet it shifts east this afternoon.

[adam0983]

The million dollar questions

[gatorcane]

One more decent shift west by the Euro and I would be quite concerned for SE/E coast of Florida. Comparison on 12Z yesterday vs 00Z last night:

[NDG]

So far this is how models are performing on timing and track, no surprise the Euro is doing the best at day 4-5 range as JB mentioned yesterday on a tweet.
GFS is doing OK. CMC is doing almost as bad as the HWRF.
HWRF is messing up the TVCN consensus model big time.

[i mg]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/Mattmodels1_zpsybaimrmc.jpg[/img]

Why does the Euro line stop a day early (102 instead of 120)? GFS has been consistently way too fast so the error rate is not a surprise of only looking at the position.

I think because tropical Atlantic site started incorporating the Euro at 102 hrs ago with the storm, I remember a couple of days ago when I had looked it ended a little past 48 hrs.

[SFLcane]

Come to look the nhc appears to be on the right side of the models right now.

[jlauderdal]

[quote="gatorcane"]One more decent shift west by the Euro and I would be quite concerned for SE/E coast of Florida. Comparison on 12Z yesterday vs 00Z last night:



nhc track within 100 miles or less we have to prepare for a hit due to potential wobbles...still a couple of days to figure it out...still dont think we get the core south of palm beach even with the trend..IF it makes landfall in florida more likely Melbourne or north..this is pure speculation of course but its inching closer today

[TheStormExpert]

I'm honestly expecting a eastward shift with the Euro and it's Ensembles this afternoon. JUST A PERSONAL OPINION.