ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

Good WV view of the GOM trough moving east, and the ridge (dark area eroding):

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html

Yes. Looks like 98L also has been able to assist in the erosion of the ridge. It starting to look like the NHC forecast line will verify very well (within 50 miles). The trough in the rockies also looks fairly formidable and progressive. Have to see if it slows down any. (dont see anything that would slow it down)

thats fine for today and tomorrow but that troughiness probably wont be there in three days and the ridge builds back in enough to send it back towards florida and nc

Absolutely correct! This has been anticipated for days. The real question is how much it builds back and when does the trough get there. NC is at much greater risk. I still doubt of a Florida landfall, but getting raked by the backside could have significant impacts as well. We should know definitively by late Tues.

[SouthDadeFish]

The core is really starting to improve this morning, in my opinion. The eye is becoming increasingly better defined. I would guess we may begin to see some pressure drops in the next few recon fixes.

[FLLurker32]

Matthew is a bit frustrating. I went to bed last night (Prior to this mornings Euro run) knowing the GFS, Euro and even the last Ukmet run all started to show consensus that it would stay well enough offshore from FL. I wake up to a Euro surprise. Now I'm likely to not be very productive at work because I'll be anticipating the next runs to see if GFS follows Euro.

this is why we dont sound the all clear even though the cone wasnt over SE florida...we knew the ridging was the big question..it could trend back east but that becomes less likely now as we are getting closer to approach..another day of west trend and its a big problem..i predict nhc brings the track west a bit at 11 at days 3,4,5..they can keep going down the middle if they want but the trend is there

I agree and that's why even with what looked like consensus I checked back this morning. I'm in North central FL. Not coastal, but some of these tracks west would have some very real implications for my area. Watching for GFS now.

[marionstorm]

How much longer will recon be making center-fixes?

[Alyono]

Today was when he models were forecasting rapid to explosive intensification. Unfortunately, instead of starting from cat 2, this process is starting from cat 4

[Ken711]

Matthew has been moving due North all night (and maybe a hair West of North in the last few satellite frames). I'm still not fully buying into the expected NNE movement later today, but if it does, Haiti will get a direct hit.

The 00z ECMWF, and it's ensembles, are worrying for me in North Florida, but it's only one run. I won't be surprised if it flops back east this afternoon.

Today should be fun for recon. Four missions today, for maximum storm coverage. Additionally, NHC is sending out the G-IV every 12 hours to collect atmospheric data.

I think the Euro will windshield wipe east next run, I don't believe any landfall happens in FL IMO.

[hurricaneCW]

Devastating Haiti impacts likely, I've seen forecast of 1-2 feet of rain with isolated higher amounts forecast for them.

It's not going to be good.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

How much longer will recon be making center-fixes?

The last fix will likely be around 1:30pm EDT.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Today was when he models were forecasting rapid to explosive intensification. Unfortunately, instead of starting from cat 2, this process is starting from cat 4

Every wobble counts for Hati at this point. If this rolls over them as forecasted they could be thrown into the stone age. Praying at this point is an understatement.

[Alyono]

Today was when he models were forecasting rapid to explosive intensification. Unfortunately, instead of starting from cat 2, this process is starting from cat 4

Every wobble counts for Hati at this point. If this rolls over them as forecasted they could be thrown into the stone age. Praying at this point is an understatement.

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

[Ken711]

Today was when he models were forecasting rapid to explosive intensification. Unfortunately, instead of starting from cat 2, this process is starting from cat 4

Every wobble counts for Hati at this point. If this rolls over them as forecasted they could be thrown into the stone age. Praying at this point is an understatement.

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

How wide would the hurricane force winds be in Matthew presently?

[marionstorm]

Alyono do you know if the NHC would know to advise the UN mission in Haiti that they are going to get feet of rain? Or would it go through the state department? I can't imagine that the Haitian government is tackling this and the UN mission there might not even involve countries prone to tropical storms. If the rainfall amounts verify it is going to be beyond description.

[Alyono]

Every wobble counts for Hati at this point. If this rolls over them as forecasted they could be thrown into the stone age. Praying at this point is an understatement.

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

How wide would the hurricane force winds be in Matthew presently?

30 miles at most

[GCANE]

The farther north it goes, the more coriolis force is adding to rotational velocity.
Also, 98L / ULL is moving closer and aiding the poleward outflow channel.

[toad strangler]

Matthew has been moving due North all night (and maybe a hair West of North in the last few satellite frames). I'm still not fully buying into the expected NNE movement later today, but if it does, Haiti will get a direct hit.

The 00z ECMWF, and it's ensembles, are worrying for me in North Florida, but it's only one run. I won't be surprised if it flops back east this afternoon.

Today should be fun for recon. Four missions today, for maximum storm coverage. Additionally, NHC is sending out the G-IV every 12 hours to collect atmospheric data.

I think the Euro will windshield wipe east next run, I don't believe any landfall happens in FL IMO.

The 00z Euro wasn't close to a FL landfall.

[mrbagyo]

The eye is clearing once again..
Might ramp up in intensity again.
I think Matthew would regain cat 5 status today.

[Ken711]

Does not matter if they get a irect hit or not. Chances are, hurricane winds may miss them entirely

The rains, however, will not

How wide would the hurricane force winds be in Matthew presently?

30 miles at most

Thanks.

[Vdogg]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

[JtSmarts]

How large do we expect Matthew to get in the Bahamas? Are we talking about a medium sized storm or a monster one like Ike or Sandy with hurricane force winds extending out well over 100 miles from the center?

[JtSmarts]

Why does the page graphic show Matthew as a Cat 3 when it's a Cat 4?

I believe when the graphic was implemented, 130 mph was still cat 3. That changed a few years back.