ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[TheStormExpert]

One more decent shift west by the Euro and I would be quite concerned for SE/E coast of Florida. Comparison on 12Z yesterday vs 00Z last night:



nhc track within 100 miles or less we have to prepare for a hit due to potential wobbles...still a couple of days to figure it out...still dont think we get the core south of palm beach even with the trend..IF it makes landfall in florida more likely Melbourne or north..this is pure speculation of course but its inching closer today

Yeah Treasure Coast on northward would be at greatest risk of landfall if it were to happen.

[NDG]

I counted 28 out of 50 Euro ensemble members that are to the left of its operational run.

[img]http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ndgarcia/2014-06/Mattmodels2_zpspek1fr64.jpg[img]

Interesting.

But I remember when Hurricane Lester was moving towards the pacific. The EPS showed a track over Hawaii compared to a track east of Hawaii for the operational for a while. In the end they shifted back in line with the operational Euro away from Hawaii.

I do agree they have been a little west biased with Matthew but what I am looking at is their trend that has been shifting closer to Florida, just 24 hrs ago there were only 4 of its members over FL. The trend is your friend.

[Blown Away]

12z Guidance tightly clustered well away from Florida...

[ObsessedMiami]

I am very confused here. Seeing all these posts about westward shift and Florida potential impacts then literally the next post showing model consensus moving east.

Are there two different sets of runs being referenced back to back?

[Bocadude85]

12z Guidance... Moving into shorter range and guidance still 200+ miles away from Florida...

Thats a slight west shift from the 6z guidance... really converging on Abaco/Grand Bahama now.

[boca]

I was looking at the water vapor loop and the trough in the GOM looks to be moving east so wouldn't that steer Matthew more NNE rather than what the Euro is implying with it impacting Florida or close to it

[boca]

I am very confused here. Seeing all these posts about westward shift and Florida potential impacts then literally the next post showing model consensus moving east.

Are there two different sets of runs being referenced back to back?

The euro is trending west,the GFS is maybe 25 miles west but I think the euro is an outlier

[JtSmarts]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

[Hurricaneman]

I am very confused here. Seeing all these posts about westward shift and Florida potential impacts then literally the next post showing model consensus moving east.

Are there two different sets of runs being referenced back to back?

The euro is trending west,the GFS is maybe 25 miles west but I think the euro is an outlier

The thing I notice is above 20n when the euro is the outlier it tends to be right 8/10 times so that's why you can't let your guard down

[NDG]

I was looking at the water vapor loop and the trough in the GOM looks to be moving east so wouldn't that steer Matthew more NNE rather than what the Euro is implying with it impacting Florida or close to it

It cannot move NE or NNE because the Bermuda ridge will not be retrieving that far east. After the trough lifts out of the eastern US ridging will be moving back in again causing it to start a NNW or NW heading. The Euro has ridging stronger moving in while the GFS is not that strong.

[boca]

The trough in the GOM is moving east so wouldn't that go against a hit in Florida which the Euro is forecasting

[boca]

NDG you actually answered my question so ignore the above post

[hurricaneCW]

Euro has been good up to 3 days out, after that it gets messy.

[Bocadude85]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

What is a high probability cluster? Is that just the ensembles?

[ronjon]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

This is starting to look very ominous for FL - not trying to be overly dramatic here either. This is something new i haven't seen before. It's been presented previously on Dr. Jeff Masters blog. If I understand it correctly, out of the 50 ECM ensemble runs, the 5 that best match the operational run through 72 hours are selected. in this case, all 5 tracks hit the FL peninsula. I referenced this method a couple of days ago - at that time 2 out of 5 hit the FL peninsula.

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/782942174421934081

I'm not sure what this means, is that the 12Z Euro is likely to trend further west?

[Dean4Storms]

The trough in the GOM is moving east so wouldn't that go against a hit in Florida which the Euro is forecasting

The Trough in the ECM is gone by the time you get to Wed. nite as far as the Gulf goes, it has dropped southward into the Western Carib. Sea. Ridging is building back in over the SE USA, northern Gulf extending out into the Atlantic.

[tolakram]

It appears they take the ensemble members that in the past have been most likely to be correct and cluster them. It's been wrong before so I'm not sure if this is an ominous sign or not.

[gatorcane]

I feel that Michael Ventrice is pretty good an not about hyping anything either. He has got my attention...

[NDG]

More evidence that the Euro has been handling the 4-6 day forecast range of Matthew much better than the GFS in timing and position.
If the GFS 4-6 day range would been correct it would had made landfall in Hispaniola last night. Yes, the Euro has been horrible with it in the 7-10 day range but in 5 day range it has been king.