ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

The F-18 pass from a little over two hours ago shows a large outer eyewall developing. Considering the eyewall size and the early state of eyewall replacement currently, I doubt eyewall replacement completes before landfall.

[RL3AO]

The SSHWS is based on knots. 113 knots starts category 4 which is really 115 knots because they use 5 knot increments. 115 knots = 132 mph which rounds down to 130 mph.

In the past, there was an issue rounding a 115 knot wind to mph that made a cat 4 (knots) look like a cat 3 (mph). The scale was adjusted to fix this issue.

[otowntiger]

Quite interested to see the 11 update! Track will move but by how much? May just wait for the GFS run since there is plenty of time. I will guess 50 miles west in deference to the Euro.

My bet is it will shift very little. NHC doesn't make big shifts in response to one run of one set of models.

[BobHarlem]

Quite interested to see the 11 update! Track will move but by how much? May just wait for the GFS run since there is plenty of time. I will guess 50 miles west in deference to the Euro.

My bet is it will shift very little. NHC doesn't make big shifts in response to one run of one set of models.

I woulnd't expect much/any change at 11, maybe 5pm.

[JtSmarts]

Not sure if this was posted or not.
 https://twitter.com/NWS/status/782944950358986752

[AutoPenalti]

Quite interested to see the 11 update! Track will move but by how much? May just wait for the GFS run since there is plenty of time. I will guess 50 miles west in deference to the Euro.

My bet is it will shift very little. NHC doesn't make big shifts in response to one run of one set of models.

Yep, the cone remains the samd
I woulnd't expect much/any change at 11, maybe 5pm.

Yep, cone remains the same

[PTrackerLA]

11am

[Evil Jeremy]

I really wouldn't be surprised to see the 12z models take a step east. The overnight ECMWF ensembles are concerning but I'm not concerned over one model set. If the ECMWF repeats it's 00x scenario though I'll start getting ready for TS winds in Jax. I still find it incredibly improbable we experience intense winds, but the chances are increasing for a windy, rainy Friday up here.

[jdjaguar]

some new language in the 11:00 am NHC release

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

hmm...

starting to get concerned about the safety of my 84 year mom who lives in Vero on the barrier island.
I guess the next day or 2 may resolve the issue.

[HurricaneBelle]

Although they haven't moved the track that much further west in the Bahamas, there's been a dramatic increase in the wind speed probabilities for the Florida east coast. The TS wind probabilities had been in the 20s and low 30s for these sites over the last 24 hours or so, now they're in the high 30s-low 40s:

COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 8(38)
COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 3(14)
COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7)

PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 8(38)
PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 4(14)
PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)

FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 21(35) 7(42)
FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 3(17)
FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8)

W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 19(38) 5(43)
W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) 2(17)
W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 1( 9)

FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 15(36) 4(40)
FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) 2(16)
FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7)

And even Tampa is up to 16% and is showing for the first time a small 3% probability of high-end TS winds.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 1454.shtml?

[Elsiecoro]

Boy has Matthew been one roller coaster ride, I live in Stuart Florida, so Im in the cone, Im not, back in the cone, back out

Sure is one for waiting and watching, not many prepping for anything around me, but better safe then sorry at my house

The memories of Jeanne and her lovely loop de loop are still too fresh in my mind

[ronjon]

Track nudged west at 11 am in 3-5 day time frame.

from NHC disc:

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

[gatorcane]

Not seeing an easterly component to the movement still, looks north to me:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[WPBWeather]

Track nudged west at 11 am in 3-5 day time frame.

from NHC disc:

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

Yes, I just saw my location has made the cone again, after being removed a few days ago.

[La Sirena]

some new language in the 11:00 am NHC release

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

hmm...

starting to get concerned about the safety of my 84 year mom who lives in Vero on the barrier island.
I guess the next day or 2 may resolve the issue.

Wasn't expecting a mention of the Fla Keys in there. Very surprising.

[sittingduck]

The 11 am says nudged "east" did they mean "west" or did it really get nudged "east" Not really important at this point - but curious.

[OuterBanker]

Now in the cone. But, NC still not in NHC statement in the interest elsewhere statement. At least that’s a good thing.
Btw, why does the NHC keep insisting that Matthew will drop below Major status when off the Carolinas. Water is above 80 still there. Even here on the northern Outer Banks it’s 78.

[La Sirena]

Not seeing an easterly component to the movement still, looks north to me:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

I didn't either. What I'm wondering about is after crossing eastern Cuba how it will affect the intensity and path.

[Michele B]

Track nudged west at 11 am in 3-5 day time frame.

from NHC disc:

Matthew is moving due north at around 5 kt, and the hurricane should
continue moving generally northward for the next 36 to 48 hours
around the western periphery of the Atlantic subtropical ridge.
During this time, the track guidance is in generally good agreement
and the NHC forecast has been nudged a little to the east toward the
consensus aids and the center of the guidance envelope. After that
time, the track foreast becomes more complicated, with the models
continuing to show a lack of consistency in the evolution of the
ridge rebuilding north of Matthew in 3 to 5 days, leading to a large
amount of along and cross track spread at these times. The ECMWF
and UKMET are along the left side of the guidance at days 4 and 5,
with the other models farther east. The new NHC track is a bit left
of the previous one and lies near the latest GFS/ECMWF blend, and a
little left of the latest multi-model consensus.

While all of the deterministic track models currently keep Matthew
east of Florida, there is still enough uncertainty in the global
ensembles that direct impacts in Florida cannot be ruled out. In
addition, it is still too soon to determine whether, or how Matthew
could affect the remainder of the U.S. east coast.

There's t he wording that concerns me. OK, some impacts are one thing - DIRECT IMPACTS denotes something altogether in my mind!

I'm of the opinion that they will be "adjusting" this track slowly, ever so slowly, more westward with each update.

I have always been taught that if a storm is moving slower, the steering currents aren't what they should be - meaning the storm is not being influenced all that much by the steering elements the way everyone thought it should. This is concerning, when they keep wanting to shift a little more westerly and a little more westerly, when I see that Matt is really moving pretty slowly - especially if the ridge was truly doing what they want us to believe it is doing....which is to move Matt due north.

I would think if the track was cut and dried and clear, he'd ' be clipping along at least at 10-12, 14 mph.

[jdjaguar]

some new language in the 11:00 am NHC release

Interests elsewhere in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, and in the Florida
Peninsula and the Florida Keys should monitor the progress of
Matthew.

hmm...

starting to get concerned about the safety of my 84 year mom who lives in Vero on the barrier island.
I guess the next day or 2 may resolve the issue.

Wasn't expecting a mention of the Fla Keys in there. Very surprising.

thats what caught my eye as well. probably a concession to the most recent EURO ensemble
the entire eastern coast of florida is "within" the cone, albeit just barely.