ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[gatorcane]

Already turning around eastern Cuba, ridge stronger than 06Z run:

[chris_fit]

I dont see any more RIGHT motion in the currently running GFS vs the previous batch, just slower, quite a bit slower, at 36hrs

12z:

06Z:

[gatorcane]

turning NW between hours 36 and 42 decent SW shift from the 06Z.

[Ken711]

Through 36 more ridging...this is going to get much further west I'm afraid in the near term. Longer term it may save the Carolinas and NE.

Can you explain further.

[AdamFirst]

Through 36 more ridging...this is going to get much further west I'm afraid in the near term. Longer term it may save the Carolinas and NE.

Can you explain further.

A more pronounced left turn will bring the storm in farther south, allowing the storm to escape out to sea at a lower point, avoiding the Carolinas northward

Unfortunately a pronounced left turn will bring the storm closer to Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[gatorcane]

54 hours stronger ridging to the NE than 06Z:

[SouthFLTropics]

Through 36 more ridging...this is going to get much further west I'm afraid in the near term. Longer term it may save the Carolinas and NE.

Can you explain further.

Longer it takes to get out of Caribbean it allows the ridge to build and endanger FL and maybe GA. It also allows the trough over the Rockies to get here in time to sweep it out to sea before it impacts the Carolinas and points north.

[chris_fit]

Much slower at 54hrs - I would say a good 50+ miles S of the previous run for the same time frame.

[Dean4Storms]

@54hrs 12zGFS NW heading and slower than 06z!

[Ken711]

Through 36 more ridging...this is going to get much further west I'm afraid in the near term. Longer term it may save the Carolinas and NE.

Can you explain further.

Longer it takes to get out of Caribbean it allows the ridge to build and endanger FL and maybe GA. It also allows the trough over the Rockies to get here in time to sweep it out to sea before it impacts the Carolinas and points north.

Thanks.

[gatorcane]

[Ken711]

Through 36 more ridging...this is going to get much further west I'm afraid in the near term. Longer term it may save the Carolinas and NE.

Can you explain further.

A more pronounced left turn will bring the storm in farther south, allowing the storm to escape out to sea at a lower point, avoiding the Carolinas northward

Unfortunately a pronounced left turn will bring the storm closer to Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Thanks as well.

[Dean4Storms]

GFS is showing a much further west ridge than 06z, don't see how this misses the SE US.

[SouthFLTropics]

At 60 hours look at the thumb ridge extend towards the South Carolina coast.

[Fountainguy97]

guys.. hour 66 Ridge building way into NC/SC....

compared to the 06z ridge which is back by Bermuda

[gatorcane]

Thumb ridge is back, big change from 06Z run at this time:

[RL3AO]

through 18 hours, there has already been a major right shift in the MU

I'm not seeing that...I'm seeing slower forward progress through 18.

came back a bit to the west. However, the slower motion may be good as that would result in it being slower to near the Carolinas, which would allow for it to turn

Might depend on if gfs is correct with cutoff/neg tilt trough

[gatorcane]

72 hours, SW of the 06Z run:

[sponger]

Ugly! Trapped!

[gatorcane]

Ut oh....big change from 06Z, look at the ridge to the north: