ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

72 hours...too close for comfort and a building ridge to the north. If this track were to verify I can see at minimum Hurricane Watches from Jupiter Inlet northward.

[SFLcane]

This is crazy look at that ridge

[PTrackerLA]

Wow, this run will be hard to escape a landfall. MUCH closer to Florida at hour 78...

[RL3AO]

mid-level trough east of New England is a little faster in 12z run. Western trough looks a bit slower.

This means slower movement initially but if the western trough digs enough it still may send it out to sea. This is where the Euro differs greatly.

[gatorcane]

HUGE shift west by the MU:

[La Sirena]

The riding is definitely stronger as well as that nw movement putting Florida back in Matthew's sights.

[jhpigott]

Wow, this run will be hard to escape a landfall. MUCH closer to Florida at hour 78...

looks pretty close to Freeport/West End at 78 hours - about 60-80 miles from Jupiter Inlet. Pretty good shift west in the near term and way too close for comfort for us here in PBC and points north along the Treasure Coast.

[SouthFLTropics]

Come on Rockies trough...dig dig!!! We need that trough over the Rockies and plains to move faster on the next frame.

[gatorcane]

90 hours:

[Ken711]

mid-level trough east of New England is a little faster in 12z run. Western trough looks a bit slower.

This means slower movement initially but if the western trough digs enough it still may send it out to sea. This is where the Euro differs greatly.

Isn't the Euro slower to allow time for the Western trough to develop and push it east?

[SouthFLTropics]

90 hours...much farther west than 06z.

[NDG]

That's a big shift west by the GFS by almost of 100 miles.

[WeatherEmperor]

Maybe the Ukmet was on to something before when it showed Matthew coming super close to Florida.....


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[northjaxpro]

Matthew could get stalled out or blocked just off the Florida East Coast within the next 4 to 5 days

[RL3AO]

[imghttp://i.imgur.com/Yp2tiFy.gif[/img]

mid-level trough east of New England is a little faster in 12z run. Western trough looks a bit slower.

This means slower movement initially but if the western trough digs enough it still may send it out to sea. This is where the Euro differs greatly.

Isn't the Euro slower to allow time for the Western trough to develop and push it east?

The Euro just plain doesn't develop the southern part of the trough. It has a slight trough where the GFS has a negative tilt 500mb low over Ohio in 6 days.

[gatorcane]

Well the GFS shifted west by at least 100 miles. Just one or two more shifts away from having this on the coast of SE or E coast of Florida.

[RL3AO]

Looks like western trough is slower and stronger. Big shift west.

[ronjon]

Based on the earlier ensemble run, does the operational ECM shift even further west at 12z?

[SouthFLTropics]

JMA model has significantly more ridging at 72 hours as compared to yesterday's run.

[SouthFLTropics]

For the Carolinas sake that trough can't come east fast enough. I'm skeptical that it makes it in time.