ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[sponger]

GFS running. Stronger ridging (surprise!)

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

[sponger]

42 hours moving NW off Cuba. That is not good! Going to be an interesting run since the foretasted high looks better represented.

[jlauderdal]

Thumb ridge hanging tough on gfs run..not good

[jdjaguar]

I am not liking this GFS run one bit.

getting way too close to Vero Beach

[La Sirena]

Thumb ridge hanging tough on gfs run..not good

Not good at all.

[Evil Jeremy]

At 90 hours, Matthew is the closest to Florida he has been in the past 4 runs:




I can only assume this means the ECMWF will shift East in a few hours lol

[sponger]

Give credit to the crazy Nam for sniffing this out and even the UK MET from 2 days ago. Not just more ridging, but a lot of ridging. At least the GFS still keeps it offshore from Florida and weaker. If both of those are wrong, not going to be a fun end of the week. I still suspect a scrape, nothing more. However the NHC mentioning the Keys is a bit concerning. Hopefully just being cautious.

[La Sirena]

Give credit to the crazy Nam for sniffing this out and even the UK MET from 2 days ago. Not just more ridging, but a lot of ridging. At least the GFS still keeps it offshore from Florida and weaker. If both of those are wrong, not going to be a fun end of the week. I still suspect a scrape, nothing more. However the NHC mentioning the Keys is a bit concerning. Hopefully just being cautious.

That threw me seeing the Keys mentioned as well. I'm just going to go with a precautionary measure in a very unpredictable Tropics. Yep. I'm going to repeat it over and over.

[sponger]

[quote="sponger"]Give credit to the crazy Nam for sniffing this out and even the UK MET from 2 days ago. Not just more ridging, but a lot of ridging. At least the GFS still keeps it offshore from Florida and weaker. If both of those are wrong, not going to be a fun end of the week. I still suspect a scrape, nothing more. However the NHC mentioning the Keys is a bit concerning. Hopefully just being cautious. A big question mark will be GA/ SC. Could take a full hit. To early to forecast, just have to wait and see.

[jlauderdal]

bahamas radio link,,,they are getting ready'..i like the corned beef and tuna recommendation for stocking up..i saw two people filling up 5 gallon gas cans this morning..euro comes west next run i will be doing the same this afternoon, can always use it my vehicles later

http://tunein.com/radio/Radio-Bahamas-1071-s102363/

[RL3AO]

Big change has been the trough off New England. Instead of cutting off and sticking around like the GFS was saying, most models are moving it eastward more quickly. Allows ridging to return ahead of big trough.

[JaxGator]

Give credit to the crazy Nam for sniffing this out and even the UK MET from 2 days ago. Not just more ridging, but a lot of ridging. At least the GFS still keeps it offshore from Florida and weaker. If both of those are wrong, not going to be a fun end of the week. I still suspect a scrape, nothing more. However the NHC mentioning the Keys is a bit concerning. Hopefully just being cautious. A big question mark will be GA/ SC. Could take a full hit. To early to forecast, just have to wait and see.

Still close enough to bring TS winds if I'm correct. Man this thing is a monster right now.

[tgenius]

A run is a run, but Euro went west, and GFS is now too. I still don't think a direct impact to SFL, but will probably get close enough to need to issues Trop Storm Watches down south, baring no more major shifts west of course.

[sponger]

Give credit to the crazy Nam for sniffing this out and even the UK MET from 2 days ago. Not just more ridging, but a lot of ridging. At least the GFS still keeps it offshore from Florida and weaker. If both of those are wrong, not going to be a fun end of the week. I still suspect a scrape, nothing more. However the NHC mentioning the Keys is a bit concerning. Hopefully just being cautious. A big question mark will be GA/ SC. Could take a full hit. To early to forecast, just have to wait and see.

Still close enough to bring TS winds if I'm correct. Man this thing is a monster right now.

Absolutely, especially with an expanding wind field. The GFS run does not concern me near as much as the strength of the forecasted ridging it is based on.

[sponger]

Near landfall at SC NC border on this GFS run.

[ronyan]

Near landfall at SC NC border on this GFS run.

It shows landfall between hrs 120-126, exact point I'm not certain.

[gatorcane]

looks like Matthew might be slowing down again, near stall looking at the loop

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[bg1]

Near landfall at SC NC border on this GFS run.

It shows landfall between hrs 120-126, exact point I'm not certain.

Just saw that run. Let's say (hypothetically, of course ) that someone lives 45 miles NNW of Charleston. What would that mean for them? TS conditions?

[SFLcane]

UKMET into Florida!

[FLLurker32]

If the Euro maintains its westward shift on the next run, we may be looking at a somewhat significant shift in the track by the NHC by the 5pm advisory.