ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[NDG]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro for Thurs-Friday time frame.
The GFS is trash in the 5 day range when compared to the Euro most times, period.

[RL3AO]

The GFS is trending towards the Euro for Thurs-Friday time frame.
The GFS is trash in the 5 day range when compared to the Euro most times, period.

In terms of the track it is. In terms of the trough over the central US it's actually moved away from the Euro. GFS now has a strong almost negative tilt trough where the Euro has almost nothing. It may actually work out where those two scenarios mean further west where the moderately strong but faster trough the GFS had meant Matthew is further east.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/codyyeary/status/782973986825134080

[NDG]

If anything the scary part is that the Euro has been a little right biased in the 4-5 day range with Matthew.

[WeatherEmperor]

Im gonna have a fit if the Euro and the Ukmet shift east.....


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[tolakram]

Not cool.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA shifts west with ridging building to the north:

[MississippiWx]

Im gonna have a fit if the Euro and the Ukmet shift east.....


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Samesies.

They need to make up their minds. I'm getting whiplash and I'm not even in the affected area.

[Ken711]

Im gonna have a fit if the Euro and the Ukmet shift east.....


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I don't think they will.

[tolakram]

Landfall. One can only hope the GFS is wrong again.

[ronyan]

Looks like landfall NC/SC border @ 120 hr with 982 mb on low res GFS 12z.

[RL3AO]

Central US trough slower and stronger. About to go negative tilt. Still massive differences with Euro, but it seems to result in a similar track for Matthew.

[tolakram]

[DESTRUCTION5]

Landfall. One can only hope the GFS is wrong again.

Can you say HUGO II ?

[KWT]

Going to be a powerful landfall, pressure at 933mbs!

Trend is not our friend and I think the west trend isn't quite done yet either....

[Vdogg]

I'm smelling landfall between Wilmington and nags head. Being in Va. Beach, this one is a bit close for comfort.

Edit: Lol, well there it is. Time to get the Hurricane kit ready.

[jlauderdal]

Maybe the Ukmet was on to something before when it showed Matthew coming super close to Florida.....


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yep..the ukemt is good enough to be a leading indicator...will see if it actually happens...if the euro run trends west towards florida then game on, nhc should shift west at least 1 degree at days 4 and 5.....central and north florida have to be getting really concerned with this last run...se florida concern but still think it goes north of palm beach and more like melbourne north

[gatorcane]

Going to be a powerful landfall, pressure at 933mbs!

Trend is not our friend and I think the west trend isn't quite done yet either....

Yep, it could trend even more west which would put SE Florida as well as the East Coast of Florida in the crosshairs.

[tolakram]

I know this is dumb to speculate since it's just one GFS run. But what would the evacuations look like?

Feel free to post this in the discussion thread but not here. Thanks! Reminder to all, we may get even more busy so it's important to keep the numerous one liners and off topic posts out of this thread. Please. Thanks.

[SouthFLTropics]

The forward speed has been the key all along. If the SE coast gets impacted I think we will look back on yesterday (Sunday) as being the key day that changed everything. Matthew's loop de loops and fondness to hang around in the Caribbean longer has brought us to this point.