ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[jlauderdal]

Landfall. One can only hope the GFS is wrong again.

Can you say HUGO II ?

A little north, but yes. That is the southern Grand Strand area, and evac will be a mess.

Local WX folks are not sold on the trend west. The term finger ridge was brought up on a recent call and was dismissed. When will the next Euro run start?

so i guess the local weather folks have to see the thumb ridge on the next euro run before they believe it

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM SE Florida landfall:

[p1nheadlarry]

Landfall. One can only hope the GFS is wrong again.

Can you say HUGO II ?

A little north, but yes. That is the southern Grand Strand area, and evac will be a mess.

Local WX folks are not sold on the trend west. The term finger ridge was brought up on a recent call and was dismissed. When will the next Euro run start?

In a little less than an hour.

And there aren't many roads out of Myrtle or Wilmington. Basically Columbia, Charlotte, and Raleigh the only directions with a few national highways. ILM doesn't do I-40 lane reversal anymore as a plan for mass-evac. Would be nuts.

[WeatherEmperor]

12Z NAVGEM SE Florida landfall:

Ooooh boy this is getting interesting.


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[gatorcane]

The NAVGEM also sends this WNW across the state of Florida when it goes out farther suggesting MUCH more ridging in place. What has suddenly causes the models to shift like this? New data must have been given to them.

[Alyono]

NAVGEM has shifted into the eastern Gulf

[WeatherEmperor]

The Navgem is furthest west but the Gfs and Ukmet also did so we have to at least consider it. Now wr wait for the Euro...


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[meriland23]

initially, GFS, Euro, CMC predicted a FL landfall if not a Gulf threat. It has been evident for quite a few days now that all but Navgem or Unmet predict a SC clip or NE threat. It is like Navgem is completely insistent on keeping it close and south.

[Evil Jeremy]

GFDN (Not sure how it differs from the GFDL, or if it's a quality model) also jumped west, it's basically the same track as the new GFS.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM takes it through S FL to Tampa and then north from there.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=psl&dtg=2016100312&set=Tropical

[Michele B]

NAVGEM has shifted into the eastern Gulf

Yeah. To me, the ridge has ALWAYS seemed to be strengthening and moving the storm more west. I never saw what everyone was saying the models were showing moving north as the ridge "backed up." It wasn't backing up! It seemed to be digging in and widening toward the west, so the storm had no recourse except to curve more west.

Hope I'm wrong. Otherwise, I'm looking at another CHarley.

[Alyono]

GFDN (Not sure how it differs from the GFDL, or if it's a quality model) also jumped west, it's basically the same track as the new GFS.

It's the GFDL run off of the NAVGEM fields

[tolakram]

NAVGEM GIF, for what it's worth.

[ronjon]

12z NAVGEM takes it through S FL to Tampa and then north from there. Looks like a similar track to 12z NAM.

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_loop.cgi?&area=nvg_troplant&prod=psl&dtg=2016100312&set=Tropical

[stormreader]

NAVGEM has shifted into the eastern Gulf

Well, I have been saying for many days now, I forget how many, that a track very near Key West and up the Fl West Coast was most likely. I did think that the storm would move gradually NW over Cuba to get to the keys. Instead it will come up into the Bahamas before being pushed west by the ridging toward S Fl. And like this model says, toward the extreme SE GOM.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/782991536497852416

[stormreader]

NAVGEM has shifted into the eastern Gulf

Yeah. To me, the ridge has ALWAYS seemed to be strengthening and moving the storm more west. I never saw what everyone was saying the models were showing moving north as the ridge "backed up." It wasn't backing up! It seemed to be digging in and widening toward the west, so the storm had no recourse except to curve more west.

Hope I'm wrong. Otherwise, I'm looking at another CHarley.

Charley on steroids. A much larger system. Might even be more intense too.

[miamijaaz]

Isn't the NAVGEM a terrible model? Or am I confusing it with another one?

[caneseddy]

NAVGEM GIF, for what it's worth.

That NAVGEM run could be a worst case scenario for Florida. A possible major hurricane landfalling in South Florida bisecting the state and exiting over Tampa, raking Hillsborough, Pinellas, Pasco, Hernando counties while just offshore, then curving into the Big Bend (close to Hermine's landfall) and then hitting Jacksonville with its west side while traveling to Georgia.

Of course, it's the NAVGEM

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF is well west at 66 hours. Still about 30 hours too fast IMO.