ATL: MATTHEW - Models

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5221 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:53 pm

Euro at 24 hours might be ready to throw a wrench into this whole thing. It shows 98L developing to the ENE of Matthew.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5222 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:00 pm

Of note, Euro is slower than yesterday's 12z and has more ridging.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5223 Postby SFLcane » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:00 pm

 https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/782993383061151744


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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5224 Postby ConvergenceZone » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:00 pm

If the EURO trends West, this will be an EPIC model day, and I don't mean that in a good way. Also, thanks to everyone who posts these models all day long. I can only type on my break, and it's much appreciated
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5225 Postby ThetaE » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:01 pm

Euro already further west than the 12z yesterday at 48. Yikes.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5226 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:01 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5227 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:02 pm

Trend

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5228 Postby xironman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:02 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:Euro at 24 hours might be ready to throw a wrench into this whole thing. It shows 98L developing to the ENE of Matthew.


I doubt that such a low intensity storm could effect Matt, not that seeing the Fujiwhara effect off the east coast would be an interesting end to the season.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5229 Postby stormlover2013 » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:03 pm

it can break down the ridge and make it weaker so yeah it can affect it
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5230 Postby RL3AO » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:04 pm

Ridging continues to get stronger in most recent model runs. Not good.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5231 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:04 pm

More ridging showing up on the Euro at 48 hours and Matthew moving slower. Don't think this ends well.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5232 Postby SouthFLTropics » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:06 pm

Big difference in speed and setup not only from yesterdays 12z but also from overnights 00z.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5233 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:08 pm

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5234 Postby toad strangler » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:09 pm

Solid NW @72 and intensifying ..
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5235 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:09 pm

Trend

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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5236 Postby xironman » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:11 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:it can break down the ridge and make it weaker so yeah it can affect it


I don't think it could develop quickly enough to break down a ridge at that latitude.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5237 Postby JPmia » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:11 pm

For the past 3 days the runs of both the GFS and the Euro have trended west.. It's time to sound the alarm bells.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5238 Postby KWT » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:12 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:it can break down the ridge and make it weaker so yeah it can affect it


Problem is the models are under-estimating it to start with, so even if they do have a Nicole from 98L, the fact the ridge is stronger to start means it STILL goes further west than progged.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5239 Postby WPBWeather » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:12 pm

JPmia wrote:For the past 3 days the runs of both the GFS and the Euro have trended west.. It's time to sound the alarm bells.


Big west shift. at 72.
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Re: ATL: MATTHEW - Models

#5240 Postby tolakram » Mon Oct 03, 2016 1:13 pm

I think the ridge is a little weaker than the 0Z run, hard to tell since it's 12 hours different with 24 hour frames. Looks similar.
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