ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[KWT]

Going to be mighty close this run, upper trough is closing in fast from the west but the system is very close to land by 120hrs, may ride very close to the coast or just onshore.

[SeGaBob]

Not sure how I feel about that image at 120 hours...

[wxmann_91]

It's hard to tell the motion at hr 120 because of the 24-hr intervals. Odds are the turn is pretty sharp due to the positive tilt of the approaching trof.

[SouthFLTropics]

This run by the Euro looks to be a hair faster than 00z. Maybe by about 12 hours. Keep watch on Matthew's current forward speed. That is HUGE!!!

[birddogsc]

If 144 doesn't kick hard right, that's going to pretty much follow the GFS.

[tolakram]

Looking at the Weathebell graphics, at 72 hours it was just a hair west.

[Jevo]

Perhaps the balloon sampling data is starting to make it into the model runs. It appears they are sending them up pretty regularly now from the local offices.

In an effort to improve computer models forecasting Matthew’s future track, hurricane hunter flights that investigate the storm are being increased to every six hours. A G-IV capable of high-altitude missions will also be making twice daily flights to gather information around and in advance of Matthew, said hurricane center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. Local weather offices are also increasing the release of weather balloons to collect information every six hours, he said.

“There’s a lot of balls up in the air right now,” he said. “So we’re going to get as much data as we can into these models.”

Source: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather ... rylink=cpy

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, at 120hours, it looks like what is left of 98L is between Matthew and the Atlantic high. What effect would this have? Push it west, or drag it east?

[Aric Dunn]

THe models are way west.. interesting..

[WPBWeather]

THe models are way west.. interesting..

You have been saying so for a while now. Good job.

[xironman]

It's hard to tell the motion at hr 120 because of the 24-hr intervals. Odds are the turn is pretty sharp due to the positive tilt of the approaching trof.

I only have the crappy TT maps for the euro, it looks more flat than positive to my untrained eyes.

[RL3AO]

Still a big difference with the trough between GFS and Euro. Seems that the increased ridging playing a bigger role than the trough.

[stormlover2013]

JMA with a big west shift!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55

[tolakram]

[wxmann_91]

It's hard to tell the motion at hr 120 because of the 24-hr intervals. Odds are the turn is pretty sharp due to the positive tilt of the approaching trof.

I only have the crappy TT maps for the euro, it looks more flat than positive to my untrained eyes.

Same. And yeah, that may be a better descriptor of the trof. Either way, the geometry of the trof as shown by the Euro favors a sharp NNW -> NE turn. Needless to say timing and location of that turn is key.

[chaser1]

GFDL 926MB right over Grand Bahama Island in 84 hours. The HWRF has it east of that location at 66 hours. The GFDL timing is more in line with the GFS and is still probably a hair too fast. The trend is not Florida's friend today!!!

Amazing how things play out? Even before the GFS and EURO now shifted west, the NAM was distinctly indicating rising heights during yesterday's runs. "This" interesting dialogue from the most recent NCEP Model Diagnostic Discussion (from 12:41pm today - http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussion ... isc=pmdhmd )

WITH RESPECT TO THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE ATLANTIC, THE NAM
AND GFS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND STRONGER RELATIVE TO THEIR
PREVIOUS SOLUTIONS. ADDITIONALLY, USING THE 12Z BERMUDA RAOB DATA
AS A COMPARISON, BOTH THE NAM AND THE GFS INITIALIZED SLIGHTLY TOO
WEAK WITH THE UPPER RIDGE. THIS OBSERVATION, ALONG WITH A
CONTINUED TREND TOWARD A STRONGER RIDGE WOULD SUPPORT THE SOLUTION
IN THE MIDDLE TO STRONGER SIDE OF THE SPREAD, WHICH BY 00Z FRIDAY
ARE THE GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF/UKMET (THE 00Z UKMET WAS THE
STRONGEST WITH THE RIDGE). AT THIS TIME, A BLEND OF THE GFS AND
THE 00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BEST REPRESENT THE TREND FOR INCREASING
STRENGTH OF THIS UPPER RIDGE.

[gatorcane]

JMA with a big west shift!!!!!!!!!!!
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... =0&ypos=55

Landfall Treasure Coast of Florida:

[Alyono]

EC was not changed significantly from 0Z to 12Z. More model consensus now of a near miss that brings TS winds to Florida and storm force winds to NC

[ohitsdatguy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ecmwf/2016100312/ecmwf_z500a_us_7.png
The Euro is practically begging Matthew to head into the NE with this ridging.

[xironman]

It's hard to tell the motion at hr 120 because of the 24-hr intervals. Odds are the turn is pretty sharp due to the positive tilt of the approaching trof.

I only have the crappy TT maps for the euro, it looks more flat than positive to my untrained eyes.

Same. And yeah, that may be a better descriptor of the trof. Either way, the geometry of the trof as shown by the Euro favors a sharp NNW -> NE turn. Needless to say timing and location of that turn is key.

And at 144 you are right. But if I was the emergency manager for Dare county NC I would not feel comfortable.