ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[ronyan]

EC was not changed significantly from 0Z to 12Z. More model consensus now of a near miss that brings TS winds to Florida and storm force winds to NC

I don't see consensus of a miss at NC but think it's likely that FL will not be hit directly.

[gatorcane]

What a shift from the 06Z consensus...NHC track (OFCI) good bit to the east now of the consensus track:

[sma10]

I imagine the 5pm NHC discussion will be rather interesting.

[Alyono]

EC was not changed significantly from 0Z to 12Z. More model consensus now of a near miss that brings TS winds to Florida and storm force winds to NC

I don't see consensus of a miss at NC.

I'm considering multiple runs. It's not a big miss though. Right now, I'd forecast this to pass close enough to bring 60-70 mph sustained to NC

[Ken711]

Are there Euro runs past 144 hours?

[tolakram]

No longer gets trapped.

[sma10]

THe models are way west.. interesting..

Also looking to see if/how much the Euro ensemble mean shifted. Last run showed numerous tracks into Florida.

[Aric Dunn]

What a shift from the 06Z consensus...NHC track (OFCI) good bit to the east now of the consensus track:

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/qxprvnbep/14_L_tracks_18z.png[/ig]

[img]https://s13.postimg.org/a1yvpai8n/14_L_tracks_06z.png[/im]

This is what happens when you finally get enough accurate data input. After days of all the models initializing the ridge to weak they have at least got it pretty close. expect some slight westward sfit still before being smoothed out.

[xironman]

No longer gets trapped.

If you compare the GFS vs. Euro at 120 you can see that the GFS has a much sharper trough, hence the downstream effects.

[Aric Dunn]

We also still need to watch out for land interaction and how much the center gets caught up or stuck on the mountains. it can slow things down quite a bit.

[BUD]

Ridging continues to get stronger in most recent model runs. Not good.

So, how long has it been since Myrtle Beach ended up with a strong hurricane on its doorstep?

Hurricane Charlie 2004....only a piss storm. Before that Hurricane Floyd pass by.

[PTrackerLA]

EC was not changed significantly from 0Z to 12Z. More model consensus now of a near miss that brings TS winds to Florida and storm force winds to NC

Hmm, only 12z model runs that "miss" the US is are the BAMs and the 12z Euro which shifted closer to the NC coast from the 00z...

[gatorcane]

SFWMD 18Z:

[SouthFLTropics]

What a shift from the 06Z consensus...NHC track (OFCI) good bit to the east now of the consensus track:

[img]https://s14.postimg.org/qxprvnbep/14_L_tracks_18z.png[/ig]

[img]https://s13.postimg.org/a1yvpai8n/14_L_tracks_06z.png[/im]

This is what happens when you finally get enough accurate data input. After days of all the models initializing the ridge to weak they have at least got it pretty close. expect some slight westward sfit still before being smoothed out.

Exactly...I would expect even better data from here on out. Added soundings from weather balloons will be done and I would expect the G-IV to be doing increased synoptic flights over the Bahamas. Combine this with the slower forward speed and I think they are starting to dial it in. The X factor right now in my opinion is how much this gets hung up on the mountains and where it pops into the Bahamas at.

[Aric Dunn]

SFWMD 18Z:

yeah, look at all the gfs members now over florida. 18z gfs is likely to come follow suit.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/783014221516722176

[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:

[Aric Dunn]

Synoptic flight is flying east of bahamas should have even more detailed data for 18z and 00z again.

[Emmett_Brown]

Will the ECMWF High Probability ensemble members (the one's Michael Ventrice tweeted about this morning), but available soon? Anyone know how to view that? (probably not a free product)

[marionstorm]

12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
(removed image)

That looks scary to me in Marion County!