gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.
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gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
Aric Dunn wrote:gatorcane wrote:SFWMD 18Z:
yeah, look at all the gfs members now over florida. 18z gfs is likely to come follow suit.
AutoPenalti wrote:gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.
fox13weather wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.
That would be known as an "outlier" Everyone wants to find the model that will cause the most havoc and then run with it. In reality, the chance of it verifying is slim.
SouthDadeFish wrote:The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.
SouthDadeFish wrote:The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.
miamijaaz wrote:SouthDadeFish wrote:The NAVGEM was one of the worst performing models last season and for previous years as well. I would not consider it to be a reliable model. It is definitely an outlier for now.
Why does it always seem like the worst performing models forecast the worst possible scenarios?
fox13weather wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:gatorcane wrote:12Z NAVGEM loop from hour 0 to 120. This is a model that has been basically right along the NHC track or a little to the east with this system until now:
https://s12.postimg.org/bc3ckwhdp/100f8 ... ce0530.gif
Look at that ridge...builds in much like how it was forecasted long before.
That would be known as an "outlier" Everyone wants to find the model that will cause the most havoc and then run with it. In reality, the chance of it verifying is slim.
ronjon wrote:NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.
stormreader wrote:ronjon wrote:NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.
Would definitely argue for further shifts west. You have to look how far west things have come just in the last 36 hours or so. With the ridging, the possibility of any shifts back east seem remote. But further west shifts are much more likely.
meriland23 wrote:I have been rather busy the past few days so my upkeep on the storm has been spotty. Can someone fill me in on the current trajectory changes, specifically the changes in the ridge and trough? Seems to wax wane and depend on those.
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