Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
That has to be landfall...
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Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
TheHook210 wrote:stormreader wrote:ronjon wrote:NAVGEM as an individual model performer is terrible - however, the fact that the ridge is stronger in observed height rises than what was placed in the GFS model argues that perhaps further westward shifts may happen in the models. UKMET has the strongest ridging now and is a more reliable model so we'll see the model trends over the next few cycles.
Would definitely argue for further shifts west. You have to look how far west things have come just in the last 36 hours or so. With the ridging, the possibility of any shifts back east seem remote. But further west shifts are much more likely.
Not sure if I can post this in the model thread but it seems due to the west shifts, the governer of FL has just declared a state of emergency.
AutoPenalti wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
That has to be landfall...
gatorcane wrote:I won't post the NAM but it landfalls in SE Florida but seems way too weak since it really weakens it over Cuba.
gatorcane wrote:let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.
gatorcane wrote:12 UKMET at 84 hours just off SE Florida:
amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days outgatorcane wrote:let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.
stormreader wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:Digital-TC-Chaser wrote:
That has to be landfall...
That model forecast landfall is very close to worst case scenario, but not quite. If models shifts just slightly more west, you would have Mathew come upon Fl just a little south of the penninsula and the begin to turn NNW around the ridge making landfall very near Miami at NNW. I still believe models may eventually show the ridge to be strong enough to push Mathew into the keys and then the North turn taking it up the West Coast. But watching in anticipation for runs of main models during next 24-36 hours as they begin to finally nail down the correct path for what will most likely be an epic hurricane strike on the Fl coast.
jlauderdal wrote:amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days outgatorcane wrote:let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.
TheStormExpert wrote:The mean of the 12z Euro Ensembles shifts east.
jlauderdal wrote:amazing how consistent the aussie, uk and fim have been the last few days..some would say its just dumb luck but still they have held firm and the two heavyweights through all their flip flopping are trending towards these other models..there is stil plenty of time for a global model win...we are still a few days outgatorcane wrote:let's just hope the west shift with the models is done because any more shifting and we are going to be in big trouble here in SE Florida and along the East Coast of Florida.
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