ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

IMO, the tendency ultimately over time will be for Matt to move more E than W... Just takes so many factors to be in the right place to get a system to move W during October... JMHO...

[Evil Jeremy]

Will there be any new data in the 18z model runs?

Yes. NWS stations are releasing balloons gather upper air data every 6 hours, and the first half of the new G-IV date might be in.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I think this storm will be retired by the time everything is said and done. A very impressive storm and looks to be getting bigger, which will cause even more damage.

Oh, definitely. I'd say there's a 100% chance this is the last Matthew, even if it zips OTS with zero US damage.

So much for the no "M" storm ever to hit the US record

[hurricaneCW]

IMO, the tendency ultimately over time will be for Matt to move more E than W... Just takes so many factors to be in the right place to get a system to move W during October... JMHO...

The month still doesn't determine what will happen. If the upper levels support a west track then that's what'll happen.

[tropicwatch]

Hurricane Hunters are up. Should have a good idea as far as actual intensity for landfall in Haiti.

[chaser1]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/14L_intensity_latest.png

Why are all these models in intensity pretty much saying this will be a TS in 5 days, I just don't see it unless it goes in land and stays in land.

Not sure which models you're looking at but if you look at this latest intensity model group run (from tropicaltidbits), you'll see that over a third are forecasting Matthew to be a strong catagory 2-4 hurricane at 5 days. The official NHC forecast is calling for a borderline Cat 2-3 hurricane at 120 hours as well.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminf ... latest.png

[znel52]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Just playing the odds probably. It isn't an easy task for a storm to make it up to NC as a cat 3/4. It's gonna be hugging the coast I suspect it is gonna have problems with pulling dry air off of land into the circulation causing weakening. They were calling for Irene to be a cat 4 up here but it weakened to a 1. Not saying it can't happen because it has but it's not the norm.

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[hurricanefloyd5]

Hurricane Hunters are up. Should have a good idea as far as actual intensity for landfall in Haiti.

My guess is no landfall in Haiti just stroll around it but I could be wrong

[p1nheadlarry]

Recent SSMIS pass indicates the EWRC is likely near completion with inner eyewall collapsed and the outer eyewall begin tightening which should allow enough time to strengthen before landfall

It seems Matthew is not only to be the first CAT5 in the Atlantic since Felix but also may very well be the first landfalling CAT5 since Felix





Plenty of extreme heat contents up into the Bahamas even HIGHER than what Matthew has encountered so far

Yet the NHC is of the belief it weakens through the Bahamas. GFS and other models showing extremely favorable conditions there. I'm confident that it weakens as it nears the SE/MidATL due to warm water not being as deep (and I think it will be slower than GFS), but it might rebound pretty quickly if the core isn't too disrupted after Haiti/Cuba.

[Patrick99]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Interesting. My local TVmet (he's the only one who saw Charlie's turn toward Peace RIver, so, he's the only one I TRUST!) just said Matt COULD BE DOWNRADED and not even still be a hurricane (but a very strong TS as it passes by FL, or skirts it .

I thought that was very odd.

Must think Cuba takes a lot of starch out of it. Could happen, I kinda lean toward that.

[chaser1]

I'll be very surprised if Matthew does not regain Cat 4 intensity after crossing Haiti or Cuba.

[wxman57]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Interesting. My local TVmet (he's the only one who saw Charlie's turn toward Peace RIver, so, he's the only one I TRUST!) just said Matt COULD BE DOWNRADED and not even still be a hurricane (but a very strong TS as it passes by FL, or skirts it .

I thought that was very odd.

The NHC has been under-forecasting Matthew's intensity for days. I'm sure that they don't want to overly alarm folks in the Carolinas just yet, while there is still considerable uncertainty in the track. Conditions look quite good for Matthew to maintain Cat 3-4 strength through the Bahamas to the Carolinas. As for weakening to a TS, that's quite unlikely.

Concerning Florida - no one is forecast hurricane conditions there, only a brush with tropical storm conditions. No need to panic, just be ready in case the winds are toward the upper end of TS conditions vs. the lower end.

[OntarioEggplant]

Just an FYI, even though Matthew will most certainly kill thousands in Haiti, it will be mostly due to floods and landslides. The western part of the Tiburon peninsula appears lightly populated with several more resort-like areas that will see damage.

Not trying to downplay the seriousness for these people, but just trying to insert context of what Haiti is like.

[p1nheadlarry]

Makes for a lousy day of college ball. All of the Triangle ACC schools are home on Saturday. Would be terrible traffic with many possible evacuees riding out there.

[Michele B]

Quick question why is the NHC going with a cat 2 when almost every model keeps it very very strong?

Interesting. My local TVmet (he's the only one who saw Charlie's turn toward Peace RIver, so, he's the only one I TRUST!) just said Matt COULD BE DOWNRADED and not even still be a hurricane (but a very strong TS as it passes by FL, or skirts it .

I thought that was very odd.

Could be. It's happened before.
Must think Cuba takes a lot of starch out of it. Could happen, I kinda lean toward that.

[HURRICANELONNY]

Little off topic. But how the heck do you get to the chatroom. Do I have to put a dollar in.

[Sanibel]

Looks like it will clip that arm of Haiti...


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Evil Jeremy]

Little off topic. But how the heck do you get to the chatroom. Do I have to put a dollar in.

http://webchat.esper.net/?channels=storm2k

Chatroom used to be very active, not so much past few years. Maybe with this storm life will return?

[chaser1]

OMG at that 5 pm advisory and the massive probability uptick that accompanied it . You'd think there would be some watches for the east coast sometime tomorrow. Even if they're TS watches keep in mind that's what was initially issued for the Tiburon peninsula and look at the pickle they're in now. Conversely things got better for our friends in Jamaica. Obviously watching trends is important and in the US case the trend is definitely NOT our friend..

Whats ironic is that I can see NHC tomm. a.m., putting up T.S. Watches for Keys and Miami-Dade County and Hurricane Watches up from Broward County up to at least St. Lucie County. Only reason that those Watches wont go further north is simply that Watches further north along the coast would be unnecessarily far in advance. Reality is, Hurricane Watches will very very likely be issued at some point for the rest of the E. Florida Coastline. Crazy angle that Matthew would supposedly be approaching from "could" cause hurricane conditions over time, from Broward to Jacksonville. I still think that there' is little risk to extreme S. Florida but I think Delray Beach to Cocoa has a Bulls Eye on them (even if the eye comes right up to 10-20 miles offshore scraping the coastline. WAY to close for comfort (but would be a far better outcome).

Look out S. Carolina, I'm thinking the ridge will amplify enough to keep a fast moving storm to directly threaten your coastline.

[AutoPenalti]

IMO, the tendency ultimately over time will be for Matt to move more E than W... Just takes so many factors to be in the right place to get a system to move W during October... JMHO...

Welp. GFS is starting to say otherwise.