ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[Blown Away]

Don't think there was technically a CONUS landfall in that entire run... Crazy close...

[Blinhart]

 https://twitter.com/danleonard_wx/status/783063986170454016

Looks like Hurricane Warning might be needed from Ft. Lauderdale on north.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/tropicswatch/status/783070571751886848

[ronjon]

Hurricane conditions could still be felt near the coast with this run, it keeps creeping closer. This is with dropsonde data as well? I've already got the gasoline ready.

Umm..Hurricane conditions all up and down the FL east coast and tropical storm force winds across the entire peninsula the GFS verifies. I'm thinking now the westward shifts are not done - we will likely see landfall near Ft Laud to WPB to Vero and some inland penetration up the center of the state. Florida is in for a major catastrophe here - our luck may have just ran out.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/tropicswatch/status/783070571751886848

Seems like the eventual track and landfall unfortunately.

[otterlyspicey]

In the latest models, are we seeing anything that shows a possibility of this riding up the east coast Irene style north of North Carolina. Or does it seem (like it does to me) that the trend is more scary and direct for the southeast from Florida to North Carolina, but overall less threatening north of North Carolina?

[Raebie]

It's incredibly threatening to both Carolinas.

[TimeZone]

Matthew skirts the entire E coast, and then eventually takes Matthew to me here in Atlantic Canada. I'm sure it'd be quite weak if it somehow did manage to make it here though, so nothing too exciting. We never get Hurricane's here.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Matthew skirts the entire E coast, and then eventually takes Matthew to me here in Atlantic Canada. I'm sure it'd be quite weak if it somehow did manage to make it here though, so nothing too exciting. We never get Hurricane's here.

Ah, what about Juan (2003) and Arthur (2014)? If you're in Newfoundland surely you must remember Igor (2010)? None of them were weak.

[GTStorm]

So usually about this time...and especially in October...there's some feature that the models start to pick up on that will cause these things to miss the East coast (Georgia, in particular)...still waiting I guess. Is there a low or digging trough on its way to save the day and take Matthew OTS, away from everyone?

[TimeZone]

Matthew skirts the entire E coast, and then eventually takes Matthew to me here in Atlantic Canada. I'm sure it'd be quite weak if it somehow did manage to make it here though, so nothing too exciting. We never get Hurricane's here.

Ah, what about Juan (2003) and Arthur (2014)? If you're in Newfoundland surely you must remember Igor (2010)? None of them were weak.

Arthur didn't do much here, and Juan was so small that unless it passed directly over you, you wouldn't feel many effects. Hurricane Bill was the worst bust I've ever witnessed. We had a Hurricane Warning, and I don't believe we seen a wind gust that surpassed 40 Miles per hour.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Westward shifts are not done. If the cone keeps shifting at this rate 15 miles west every run it could be a storm threatening the everglades and fort Myers area

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Matthew skirts the entire E coast, and then eventually takes Matthew to me here in Atlantic Canada. I'm sure it'd be quite weak if it somehow did manage to make it here though, so nothing too exciting. We never get Hurricane's here.

Ah, what about Juan (2003) and Arthur (2014)? If you're in Newfoundland surely you must remember Igor (2010)? None of them were weak.

Arthur didn't do much here, and Juan was so small that unless it passed directly over you, you wouldn't feel many effects. Hurricane Bill was the worst bust I've ever witnessed. We had a Hurricane Warning, and I don't believe we seen a wind gust that surpassed 40 Miles per hour.

Where the heck are you? Parts of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia were without power for three weeks after Arthur for example. I'm near St. Stephen and we had lots of flooding and downed trees. Oh and if I remember correctly Yarmouth was an even worse mess.

[fci]

Should probably take Arthur/Juan discussion to The Discussion Thread and not Model thread.
(ooh that felt good, I feel like a Mod)

[HurricaneFrances04]

NAVGEM still takes this into Florida (maybe a little N than before).

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Should probably take Arthur/Juan discussion to The Discussion Thread and not Model thread.
(ooh that felt good, I feel like a Mod)

Sorry, I was flabbergasted by the first post lol.

[adam0983]

Does anyone think Hurricane or tropical storm warnings will be out tonight for Florida at 11pm. I can see hurricane watch for broward and palm beach counties tonight.

[sancholopez]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/h5-loop-wv.html

You can really see all the Major players here. Hard to believe the High is going to build back into that. 98l wont make it in time to stop it...

[Ntxw]

Reminder

As we ramp up with activity due to the nature of the threat, please try to keep this thread exclusively about models and model runs. We understand there is often a gray area with discussions but all other discussions that is not directly towards a model(s) needs to be in the storm discussion thread. People are looking for valuable sound information of what to trust and what is opinion. Follow the below guidelines, if you have doubt if it should go here or not best to take it to the discussion thread. Because of the high activity (as with any storm) moderation will be held without warning.

Posts in this thread should fall into one of these categories

1) A post about a model run -- preferably with an image.
2) A substantial comment about the model run that includes more than a short quip. Should include sound meteorological and scientific evidence.
3) Asking a question about a model run(s)
4) Answer said question about a model run(s)

Thanks,

[HurricaneFrances04]

HWRF coming in south of previous run.