lilbump3000 wrote:Looking at that model map, everybody along the gulf coast should watch out.
Well, you need to know what you're looking at for that map.
LBAR and A98E are so bad they basically can be ignored at all times.
So it's BAMD and BAMM. (And as of now, NO Globals show 90L forming a tropical system, so that's all you've got.)
When Isabel was a Cat 4-5, BAMM was still showing it heading west, when every other model had it curving north into Florida.
I was advising people that since Isabel was a deep, Cat 4+ storm, the BAMM (medium-layer) forecast was worthless. And of course it was.
The OPPOSITE is true for 90L right now.
The BAMM is valid for very weak systems, and badly sheared systems. 90L is weak, so the BAMM track right now is more valid than the BAMD track.
Of course, the BAMM track is far less popular than the BAMD track
.
The BAMD track would only be valid if 90L was a hurricane RIGHT NOW, which it is not.
And when the BAMD and BAMM are far apart (and you can't get any further apart than the BAMD and BAMM tracks for 90L right now) that's an indication of MASSIVE shear.
The Global models show enormous shear over the North Gulf next week. They also show a lot of surface ridging.
So...
1) 90L is likely to keep moving W or NW because it won't develop in time to be picked up by the weekend East Coast trough
2) If somehow it moved N it would be MASSIVELY sheared by unsurvivable 50+ knots shear
3) It's likely to get tangled up over the Yucatan thus causing trouble for development at all
4) There's basically no threat to Florida from 90L at the moment.
http://www.wrel.com/modelmap.htm STORM2K MAP WILL BE TAKEN DOWN AS SOON AS WREL IS UPDATED.....
hehe
my Cowboys 
