ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MetroMike]

The idea of opening windows in a tornado or hurricane (the theory that building "explode" in extreme winds due to rapid pressure drops) was discredited decades ago. We have been (properly counseled) against that for no less than 25 years. This is close to "flat Earth" material.

Thank you, hope this puts this silly subject to rest.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Also originally from pbi, and was somewhere before that too that i can't even remember now! but started chatting with some of you prior to Fran hitting NC. might have been an irc site?? anyway, i was MissBHaven back then, then moved to FL in 1999 and found this site a few years later during the exodos when pbi changed their forum and we all hated it. lol been here since. very cool seeing all the young high school enthusiasts go on to college, graduate, and find professional meteorology careers! -mostly still online through the process. us older folks here can't help but feel a bit proud of the site legacies!
But now serious time. please take it from us old timers and don't underestimate the potential threat. yes storms are exciting, and tracking can be fun, but they can also be deadly and costly. homeowners in threat zones now are nervous and seeking guidance and any edge of forewarning they can get here. although we always advise to seek formal professional guidance from NHC and local authorities, some are paying attention to us anyway. so we should guard our words and be sure to bolster the message for folks to listen to authorities and not play with this storm. stay safe everyone. pray for those in harms way.

[abajan]

Oh, no. This looks really bad, really strong. Could very well get to cat 5 or really close now just before closest approach to Haiti.

I couldn't agree more. It looks intense wind-wise, and it's packed with an incredible amount of moisture. Potential storm of the century in the making IMO.

Probably not. Don't be surprised if Matthew ultimately takes a more easterly / north-easterly track, sparing everyone anything, at least in the CONUS. This is October, after all, the season of the advancing troughs. For the folks in the Bahamas, and Haiti...prayers out to all of them, who clearly look to bear the brunt of this mess...

I was actually thinking mostly of Haiti and Hispaniola as a whole. But the CONUS certainly isn't in the clear.

[GTStorm]

I couldn't agree more. It looks intense wind-wise, and it's packed with an incredible amount of moisture. Potential storm of the century in the making IMO.

Probably not. Don't be surprised if Matthew ultimately takes a more easterly / north-easterly track, sparing everyone anything, at least in the CONUS. This is October, after all, the season of the advancing troughs. For the folks in the Bahamas, and Haiti...prayers out to all of them, who clearly look to bear the brunt of this mess...

This is not what the current scientific data shows. And while what you say about October is normally true, this hasn't been a typical Summer/Fall pattern. The October pattern is about 3 to 4 weeks behind here in Florida.

Unfortunately you are probably correct. We've got three - five days....maybe instead of the savior trough...the ridge doesn't develop? Just looking for something to hang my hat on...

[psyclone]

It's also worth remembering that things looked very bad for Jamaica for quite sometime and they now appear to be doing much better (at least the core is going to miss them and hurricane warnings were downgraded to TS warnings). Just because things look bad or much worse for location ________ doesn't mean they can't improve again...at least for the states where impacts are still a ways out.

[GCANE]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 4th day of the month at 2:04Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5306
Storm Number & Year: 14 in 2016
Storm Name: Matthew (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 18
Observation Number: 17
A. Time of Center Fix: 4th day of the month at 1:42:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°50'N 74°38'W (16.8333N 74.6333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 165 statute miles (266 km) to the ESE (120°) from Kingston, Jamaica.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,547m (8,356ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 100kts (~ 115.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 303° at 115kts (From the WNW at ~ 132.3mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 15 nautical miles (17 statute miles) to the SW (226°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 936mb (27.64 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,037m (9,964ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,049m (10,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 12°C (54°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the south, S
M. Eye Shape: Elliptical (oval shaped)
M. Orientation of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 120° to 300° (ESE to WNW)
M. Length of Major Axis in Elliptical Eye: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles)
M. Length of Minor Axis in Elliptical Eye: 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 127kts (~ 146.1mph) which was observed 18 nautical miles (21 statute miles) to the NE (46°) from the flight level center at 1:48:00Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 75° at 1kts (From the ENE at 1mph)
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 19°C (66°F) which was observed 8 nautical miles to the SW (226°) from the flight level center

[Raebie]

It's also worth remembering that things looked very bad for Jamaica for quite sometime and they now appear to be doing much better (at least the core is going to miss them and hurricane warnings were downgraded to TS warnings). Just because things look bad or much worse for location ________ doesn't mean they can't improve again...at least for the states where impacts are still a ways out.

Yeah but Jamaica is a tich smaller than CONUS.

[terstorm1012]

for slughitter3, there totally is a repository for old upper air maps Even from 1954. Here it is: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/img ... _maps.html. You'll have to download the special browser and I've found it works best in Internet Explorer. The daily weather map (it's on the far left) you can choose by date all the way back to 1871, and the ones from about the 50s onward contain upper air data.

Back when they did things by hand and slide rule

[bevgo]

I was not advocating for opening Windows. I was just saying what happened with me. And you are correct that homes are not airtight. I had water blowing in under baseboards. Around and under Windows ,even through the peep hole. Soaked the carpet halfway through the apartment t ment on both floors. I was just happy to have my Windows intact.

[snowpocalypse]

New video discussion from Levi out

[sponger]

I was not advocating for opening Windows. I was just saying what happened with me. And you are correct that homes are not airtight. I had water blowing in under baseboards. Around and under Windows ,even through the peep hole. Soaked the carpet halfway through the apartment t ment on both floors. I was just happy to have my Windows intact.

The peep hole! You know its bad when you are getting water through there.

[cycloneye]

New Levi video.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/783125462990094337

[Dean4Storms]

Starting to get that buzzsaw look to it on satellite. Prayers for the people of Haiti and Eastern Cuba!

[GTStorm]

It's also worth remembering that things looked very bad for Jamaica for quite sometime and they now appear to be doing much better (at least the core is going to miss them and hurricane warnings were downgraded to TS warnings). Just because things look bad or much worse for location ________ doesn't mean they can't improve again...at least for the states where impacts are still a ways out.

yep...that's why we, nor anyone on the east coast, should be boarding up the windows and heading for the hills just yet. But you might want to make sure you have gas in the van...

[Slughitter3]

for slughitter3, there totally is a repository for old upper air maps Even from 1954. Here it is: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/img ... _maps.html. You'll have to download the special browser and I've found it works best in Internet Explorer. The daily weather map (it's on the far left) you can choose by date all the way back to 1871, and the ones from about the 50s onward contain upper air data.

Back when they did things by hand and slide rule

Awesome!! Thank you, let the studying begin!

[caneseddy]

So on Channel 7 here in Miami they did a local view of the cone (meaning a close up of the cone) and the cone stretches from just north of Kendall through Palm Beach (including downtown Miami, Miami Beach, Hialeah, Miami Lakes, Aventura, Miramar, Hollywood, Fort Lauderdale, Weston, Pompano Beach, Deerfield Beach, Boca Raton and points north); pretty much the entire South Florida metropolitan area.

[Sal Collaziano]

I see things are getting very interesting around here. I'm in Royal Palm Beach right next to Wellington. I wonder what Costco is going to be like tomorrow morning. :o

[SunnyThoughts]

Starting to get that buzzsaw look to it on satellite. Prayers for the people of Haiti and Eastern Cuba!

Read elsewhere where Raw T# is up to 7.1 Guess that isn't really important considering we actually have recon in the storm right now.

[terstorm1012]

for slughitter3, there totally is a repository for old upper air maps Even from 1954. Here it is: http://www.lib.noaa.gov/collections/img ... _maps.html. You'll have to download the special browser and I've found it works best in Internet Explorer. The daily weather map (it's on the far left) you can choose by date all the way back to 1871, and the ones from about the 50s onward contain upper air data.

Back when they did things by hand and slide rule

Awesome!! Thank you, let the studying begin!

enjoy! I hope you find this useful.

[Shaneomac12345]

I expect the 0z runs will be a tad east from today but still threatening North Carolina and Florida but perhaps putting Nova Scotia in play after that .. i have a feeling models are underestimating the strength of the trof that would kick it offshore alot of pieces to be ironed out ...